Israeli Leaders Exchange Barbs Over Iran Nuclear Deal

Speaking Tuesday, the once senior official at the International Atomic Energy Agency, who is close to the United States government, said President Joe Biden had resolved to take the step in advance of November’s mid-term US Congressional elections.

The official said Washington had informed Israel of the decision, and that four Arab states – Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – had been told during Biden’s July Middle East tour that the US would help them develop nuclear technology. While the Israeli leadership has consistently opposed the 2015 agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), Prime Minister Yair Lapid and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu are vying over the Iranian ‘threat’ as the November 1 parliamentary election approaches.

The former IAEA official gave no indication as to how Iran and the US had resolved the differences over JCPOA restoration that have characterized 16 months of talks, both with five other world powers in Vienna, and bilaterally with European Union mediation.

Leaked information both in Iran and in Israeli media about a proposed European Union plan indicate a broad agreement on many issues, but lingering questions of Iranian demands over “guarantees”, “verification” and a lingering IAEA probe about Iran’s pre-2003 undeclared nuclear activities.

100%

An IAEA report leaked Monday revealed Iran’s latest breach of the JCPOA with the installation at the Natanz nuclear site of additional IR-6 centrifuges, advanced models for enriching uranium barred under the JCPOA.

There have also been consistent reports of differences over enquiries by the IAEA into unexplained uranium traces found at several sites linked to work done by Iran before 2003 but not declared as nuclear-related. While the US and European JCPOA signatories have insisted the IAEA enquiry should go on regardless of what happens with the JCPOA, President Ebrahim Raisi insisted Monday that the JCPOA could be restored only once the IAEA dropped the probe, which Tehran insists results from allegations made for ‘political’ reasons in 2018 by Israel.

Finessing the wording

Earlier Tuesday, Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, criticized “excessive” demands made by the IAEA, while Fereydoun Abbasi, a member of the parliament’s energy committee, said Iran should enrich uranium not just to 60 percent – the highest level reached – but to 90 percent “both for scientific research and for making nuclear fuel for submarines.”

Tehran has made no public response to the latest US input in the nuclear talks, submitted August 24 through the European Union. But there have been reports of efforts to finesse a wording that would postpone the IAEA probe while the JCPOA gradually comes back into play, and IAEA director-general Rafael Mariano Grossi suggested August 23 the uranium traces might be better investigated with the 2015 deal back in place.

There have also been indications of ‘principlist’ politicians in Tehran claiming the US had made significant concessions in the talks process. Real or not, such ‘concessions’ would help suggest Raisi’s government, which took office August 2021 with talks underway, had secured a more favorable outcome than would have been possible under the centrist President Hassan Rouhani, a staunch advocate of the JCPOA.

According to a statement by US Naval Forces Central Command on Tuesday, the 5th Fleet observed an IRGC support ship, named Shahid Baziar, towing a Saildrone Explorer unmanned surface vessel (USV) in an attempt to detain it while transiting international waters on Monday night local time, August 29.

The Navy patrol coastal ship USS Thunderbolt (PC 12), which was operating nearby, immediately responded and an MH-60S Sea Hawk from Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron 26 -- based in Bahrain was also launched, prompting the IRGC vessel to disconnect the towing line to the USV and depart the area approximately four hours later. The US Navy resumed operations without further incident, the statement added.

Describing the actions by the IRGC Navy as “flagrant, unwarranted and inconsistent with the behavior of a professional maritime force,” the commander of US Naval Forces Central Command, the 5th Fleet and Combined Maritime Forces, Vice Adm. Brad Cooper said, “US naval forces remain vigilant and will continue to fly, sail and operate anywhere international law allows while promoting rules-based international order throughout the region.”

The statement said the Saildrone Explorer USV that the IRGC attempted to steal is a US government property and equipped with sensors, radars and cameras for navigation and data collection, the statement said, noting that this technology does not store sensitive or classified information.

Iran, which had closed its border and halted flights to its neighboring country, announced on Tuesday afternoon that Mehran, Qasr-e Shirin and Chazabeh land border crossings have been reopened, but urged citizens to remain cautious amid a fragile calm.

Clashes continued until Tuesday noon between the Sadrist forces with Iran-backed militia groups in major cities as well as near the Green Zone in central Baghdad -- home to embassies and government buildings -- before the cleric asked his supporters to stop the protests.

"I still believe that my supporters are disciplined and obedient. And if in the next 60 minutes they do not withdraw, as well as from parliament, then I will abandon these supporters," he said. Following the announcement, supporters began leaving central Baghdad on vehicles, holding rifles and chanting while driving away.

He apologized to the Iraqi people and said shedding the blood of an Iraqi is Haram (forbidden), noting that “I expected the protests to remain peaceful, but I don't want even peaceful protests any more... Had we dissolved armed groups, we wouldn't be witnessing the current situation.”

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi praised Muqtada al-Sadr over his call for cessation of conflicts, and urged immediate dialogue among political groups.

The unrest initially broke out on Monday, August 29, hours after Sadr announced he was quitting politics.

In comments reported by the ISNA news agency, Behrouz Kamalvandi said Iran’s degree of cooperation with the IAEA, the United Nations agency, had been constrained by parliamentary legislation passed December 2020 to the ‘safeguards’ level required by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

IAEA monitoring would be extended to that required by the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, including implementing the ‘Additional Protocol,’ the spokesman said, once United States sanctions were eased and the 2015 agreement restored.

Kamalvandi’s remarks comes as Iran weighs up the latest US input, submitted August 24 through the European Union, in 16-month talks aimed at restoring the 2015 agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

One of the challenges in the talks is reportedly a gap between, on one hand, Iran’s expectation that with JCPOA restoration the agency would shelve its enquiries into uranium traces found by inspectors in sites used before 2003 and, on the other hand, the US insistence that Iran must satisfy the IAEA under its NPT commitments regardless of the JCPOA.

Dropping the enquiry?

There have been reports of efforts to finesse a wording that would postpone the matter while the JCPOA gradually comes back into play, and IAEA director-general Rafael Mariano Grossi suggested August 23 the uranium traces might be better investigated with the 2015 deal restored. But Iranian politicians, up to President Ebrahim Raisi, have lately argued forcefully, citing an alleged 2015 precedent, that the agency drop the enquiries before the JCPOA is restored.

100%

As President Joe Biden faces criticisms in the US over his administration’s efforts to revive the JCPOA, from which President Donald Trump withdrew the US in 2018, JCPOA opponents and critics in Tehran have been arguing for a more assertive approach.

Fereydoun Abbasi, a member of the parliament’s energy committee, said Tuesday Iranian negotiators should insist not just on closing “safeguards issues” but on “completely closing” Iran’s case at the agency – possibly referring to the withdrawal of a resolution passed by the 35-nation IAEA board in June censuring Iran over failing to satisfy the agency over the pre-2003 work.

Submarine fuel and political expediency

Abbasi also said Iran should enrich uranium not just to 60 percent – the highest level reached at present – but to 90 percent “both for scientific research and for making nuclear fuel for submarines.” Iran began in 2019 enriching beyond the 3.67 percent cap set by the JCPOA, the year after the US left the 2015 deal and imposed ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions. While there are limited civil uses of 90-per-cent-enriched uranium including research and medical isotopes, Iran has no nuclear submarines and 90 percent is widely considered ‘weapons grade.’

While Raisi has not been generally vocal over the nuclear issue and said during his successful 2021 election campaign he would back JCPOA restoration if in the “peoples’ interests,” many of his supporters have been strong opponents of the 2015 agreement. Given previous president Hassan Rouhani’s close association with the JCPOA, signed during his first term in office, it is politically expedient for some Raisi supporters to argue that a ‘tougher’ approach, including ramping up the nuclear program, has yielded concessions from world powers, particularly the US, that would not have happened with Rouhani still in office.

Clashes continued Tuesday, as Iraqi militias fired several rockets at Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone for a second day as hostilities intensified between rival Shi’ite Muslim groups, the military said.

Iran International’s correspondent in Iraq reported Tuesday that Sadr’s armed supporters have occupied all bridges on the Tigris River in Baghdad, except one crossing that kinks to the venue of a gathering by their opponents.

Just before noon local time, our correspondent also reported that pro-Iran politician and former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's residence in Baghdad was surrounded by Sadrist crowds but pro-Iranian militia were using heavy weapons to defend it. Allegedly dozens of Sadr's supporters were wounded by gunfire.

She also reported that many websites affiliated with political groups, including some belonging to the government, were unavailable on Tuesday.

Streets were mostly empty of ordinary people as gunmen cruised in pickup trucks carrying machine guns and brandishing grenade launchers. Overnight, sustained gun and rocket fire rang out across the Iraqi capital.

Clashes on Monday, which killed nearly 20 people, jolted Iraq into new violence as supporters of al-Sadr, a former anti-US insurgent leader, faced off with Shi’ite armed groups mostly loyal to Iran.

100%

There were reports Monday night that pro-Iran militia fired at Sadrists in Baghdad’s Green Zone, but it is not clear if how many people were killed. In turn, Sadrists said they were targeting offices and bases of pro-Iranian armed groups.

Many foreign governments have urged citizens to leave Iraq. Iranian media reported that all air and land borders with Iraq are closed, as the Iranian embassy in Baghdad and other missions face attacks by Sadrists.

A prolonged political deadlock after an October election, during which the two camps have competed for power, has given the country its longest run without a government and led to new unrest as Iraq struggles to recover from decades of conflict.

This time, the fighting is among the Shi’ite majority that has ruled Iraq since the 2003 US invasion which toppled Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein.

Sadr has positioned himself as a nationalist who opposes all foreign interference, whether from the United States and the West or from Iran. He commands a thousands-strong militia and has millions of loyal supporters across the country. His opponents, longtime allies of Tehran, control dozens of paramilitary groups heavily armed and trained by Iranian forces.

Sadr and his opponents have long dominated state institutions and run large parts of the Iraqi state.

Part of Sadr’s support comes from disgruntled Iraqis who launched anti-government protests in 2019, lasting for months and met opposition from Iran-linked groups. These Iraqis were demanding efficient governance and blamed Iran for interfering in Iraq politics and contributing to corruption and lack of services.

Iraq is one of the world’s largest oil exporters but nearly two decades after Saddam was toppled, still suffers from lack of some basic services such as reliable electricity for people.

With reporting by Reuters