President’s Office Says Iran Stands Firm In Nuclear Talks

European Union officials called these ideas a “final text,” and then reacted with cautious optimism to an Iranian response made August 15.

Ned Price, the United States State Department Spokesman, referred Monday to the “latest versions of the text the EU had circulated,” suggesting the text had been amended. Price said the latest versions did not include the removal of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards from the US list of ‘foreign terrorist organizations.’ Tehran reportedly demanded earlier in talks the withdrawal of the designation, made by President Donald Trump in 2019 in the context of ‘maximum pressure’ introduced after the US left the nuclear deal in 2018.

As reported Tuesday, a senior US official told Reuters news agency Monday that Iran had now “basically dropped the main hang-ups to a deal.”

Crossing the Rubicon

“We think they have finally crossed the Rubicon and moved forward towards possibly getting back into the deal on terms that President [Joe] Biden can accept,” the official told Reuters. “If we are closer today, it’s because Iran has moved. They conceded on issues they have been holding onto from the beginning.”

The official added that the US was “studying” Iran’s response: “We’ll get back to them soon.”

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While accusing Washington of delay since Tehran’s input August 15, Iranian officials have suggested the US has made significant concessions. This may help to placate less strident Iranian opponents of the 2015 deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, said Wednesday that while “most” countries agreed with the EU text, “I still don’t have the answer from the United States.”

The trickiest issue on which to agree wording over the text restoring the JCPOA may be enquiries by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) into uranium traces found in Iranian sites linked to pre-2003 work. While the agency would monitor a restored 2015 deal, it insists that its enquiry into the uranium relates to Tehran’s basic commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty rather than JCPOA.

Iran, on the other hand, has pointed to the precedent of 2015 when, shortly after the JCPOA was signed, the agency published a ‘final’ report on Tehran’s pre-2003 work. Iran argues the probe was revived only because of allegations made by Israel based on documents supposedly removed from Iran by Israeli agents.

‘Main obstacle’

Nour News, linked to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Tuesday objected to “political approaches” by IAEA chief Raphael Mariano Grossi, calling him the “main obstacle to the finalization of the Vienna talks, along with the Zionist regime.”

The quid pro quo of JCPOA restoration boils down to which US sanctions violate the agreement, and how Iran would return to JCPOA limits the nuclear activities it has expanded and refined since 2019. With both sanctions and nuclear work technical as well as political, gaps between Washington and Tehran have not been bridged in 16 months of talks, largely in Vienna between Iran and six world powers, and bilaterally between Iran and the US in Qatar in June.

A second US official quoted by Reuters said that under the American understanding of JCPOA restoration, limits on the Iranian nuclear program would extend to “at least six months” the ‘break out’ time required to assemble a crude weapon should Iran decide to do so.

Rafael Mariano Grossi, the head of the UN watchdog, told CNN on Monday, "Dropping probes is not something the IAEA does or will ever do without a proper process. The key to this lies in a very simple thing: Will Iran cooperate with us?"

He vehemently rejected the idea that the IAEA will end its probe without receiving answers, saying, "Absolutely not. We want to be able to clarify these things. So far Iran has not given us the technically credible explanations we need to explain the origin of many traces of uranium, the presence of equipment at places. This idea that politically we are going to stop doing our job is unacceptable for us.”

Rejecting the Russian lead negotiator’s remarks that the issue "seems to be settled," Grossi said that “So it’s very simple. Let us have an explanation: If there was nuclear material there, where is it now? If there was equipment there, where is it now? And at that moment we will be able to have a report saying ‘Yes, we have clarified this issue.'” 

A leaked report August 19 on alleged remarks by Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani listed details on the so-called "concessions" Iran claims to have received from the US, including agreement that the IAEA BoG will end the international nuclear watchdog’s probe into Iran’s past nuclear activities.

Speaking at a press conference at a seminar, Quo Vadis Europa, he is directing in Santander, Spain, Josep Borrell said an Iranian response August 15 to the text, which the EU had circulated August 8, was “reasonable.”

Borrell said the August 8 text represented the “the balance that I believe we can achieve.” There have been 16 months of talks between Iran and world powers trying to renew the 2015 agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), including EU-mediated US-Iran bilateral negotiations in Qatar in June.

While the EU had hoped, Borrell said, for a meeting in Vienna – presumably of all JCPOA signatories – “last week” after a positive US response, he said such a meeting might still happen this week.

While the contents of the talks have remained largely confidential, Iranian officials have since August 15 publicly emphasized Tehran’s search for ‘guarantees’ – both over sanctions and its nuclear program – should the US again leave the JCPOA, as it did in 2018 before imposing ‘maximum pressure’ threatening punitive action against buyers of Iranian oil or those dealing with its financial sector.

“I communicated this to those participating in the negotiation – the US and Iran, but also others, like the British, French, Chinese and the Russians,” Borrell said, omitting Germany, in English rendered by the official interpreter. “There was a response from Iran that I considered reasonable. This was transmitted to the US. The US has not formally provided a response, but we are waiting for their response and I hope that there’s a response that allows us to end the negotiation…I cannot assure you that this will happen.”

‘Safer place’

Borrell reiterated the EU’s commitment to restoring the JCPOA. “The world would be a safer place if we were able to make this agreement be [back] in place…It worked well until President Donald Trump unilaterally [announced May 2018] decided to abandon it. Iran was complying with it [accepting nuclear limits], and continued to do so for a few months more [until July 2019]. Now we need to make sure that everyone complies with it and Iran stops its nuclear program and receives the financial compensations [through eased sanctions] that were foreseen in the initial agreement.”

A statement from the White House Sunday, following a telephone call between President Joe Biden with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson – referred to “ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program” as well as “joint efforts to deter and constrain Iran’s destabilizing regional activities.” Laurence Norman, the Wall Street Journal reporter, tweeted Monday that “European sources” had told him the US could “work with” the Iranian input of August 15.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Nasser Kanaani said Monday the US was “procrastinating.”He said the talks could be judged fruitful, or not, “once the European Union announces it has received a response from the Americans.”

JCPOA opponents have continued to call for ending talks. Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid last week told Biden that continuing negotiations was a sign of “weakness.”

While many Iranians including some lawmakers complain about growing poverty, officials such as IRGC Commander Hossein Salami insist that people's economic situation is satisfactory and "Iran can now send satellites to the space, crack atoms, use artificial intelligence and Quantum and Nano technologies and be a part of the digital age."

Meanwhile, information leaked from a meeting between chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri and Iranian reporters indicate that Iran's oil revenue may soon be doubled if a nuclear deal is reached, and Tehran can find access to billions of dollars of its frozen assets in other countries.

Nonetheless, Iran's former nuclear chief Fereidoun Abbasi who is a member of parliament (Majles) says Iranians should not expect a positive impact on their livelihoods if a nuclear agreement is reached with the United States and sanctions lifted.

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Probably based on insider information, Abbasi told Entekhab news website that the agreement with the United States does not include a clause about easing Iran's international banking operations. That probably is the reason why he thinks the agreement will not be followed by an economic breakthrough.

Earlier, former government Spokesman Ali Rabiei, and centrist commentator Saeed Leylaz had pointed out that financial corruption could still adversely affect Iran’s economy even after an agreement. Meanwhile, Iranian social media users speculate that Iran might spend the lion's share of any financial windfall on strengthening its militant proxy groups in the region.

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Abbasi also noted that even with an agreement at hand, international companies may still avoid coming and investing in Iran fearing another US unilateral withdrawal from the deal.

On Sunday, hardline cleric Hossein Ebrahimi, a member of Tehran's notorious right wing clerical association told the press, "An agreement will not solve our problems. The people of Iran should be patient and help the government to solve the country's economic problems."

He added, "Although a large part of sanctions against Iran will be lifted as a result of the agreement, it does not mean that life will be a rose garden for Iranian people from the morning after. Certainly, many problems will be solved, but many challenges will also remain."

Ebrahimi particularly pointed out that prices which have skyrocketed are not going to come down because of the agreement. Another cleric had said earlier on Sunday that many things may become available in the market, but still at a high price.

Iran is facing a 54-percent annual inflation rate and food prices have risen by more than 100 in the past year.

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Meanwhile, in a report about the impact of an agreement on Iran's economy, Rouydad24 news website quoted economist Ehsan Soltani as saying that an agreement will not totally fix Iran's economy as there are many who benefit from the rising prices. He said those who benefit control the government and they are unlikely to allow the government to bring prices down.

Soltani said the Iranian government also benefits from the rise in prices as it collects inflation-induced tax from the lower and middle-classes.

Soltani also added that despite the probable real and psychological impact of an agreement, one should note that the main problem with the Iranian economy is financial corruption and the government inefficiency.

During his weekly briefing on Monday, foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said that the Islamic Republic’s position regarding the killing of Soleimani is clear, and that “the government and people of Iran will never forget the cowardly assassination of the great commander by the American government.”

Soleimani, commander of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) extra-territorial Quds Force, was killed in Baghdad along with nine others in 2020 by a drone strike ordered by then-President Donald Trump. The Qods Force under Soleimani became deeply involved in the conflicts in Syria and Iraq. Trump claimed that the general, who was Iran’s main operative in the Middle East, was killed because he was planning attacks on US troops.

In March, Iran said its judiciary would start the trial for all those involved in the killing of IRGC commander, including Trump, former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, and former CENTCOM chief Kenneth McKenzie. A lot of high-ranking Iranian military personnel and political figures, including the Supreme Leader, have promised revenge for the Soleimani's targeted killing.

The case for the revenge against the killers of Soleimani cannot be forgotten and it will not be amenable to compromise and reconciliation, Kanaani said, noting that the Islamic Republic will exhaust all of its capabilities “to bring the killers of the general to justice.” He added that Iran acts with seriousness in this regard and that the issue is not related to the nuclear negotiations.