Tehran weighs what comes next if US diplomacy fails

The response was reportedly delivered through Qatar and has been described as US “feedback” rather than acceptance or rejection of the Iranian plan.

Hardline voices have portrayed Washington’s position as evidence that further diplomacy is futile, while more pragmatic commentators argue that the fact the US responded at all shows negotiations remain alive.

President Donald Trump had publicly dismissed Iran’s proposal as insufficient. Iranian diplomats said reopening the Strait and lifting the naval blockade were discussed in indirect talks mediated by Qatar.

The dispute in Tehran is increasingly about what it should do next.

Jame Jam, affiliated with state television, published an op-ed Wednesday by hardliner Abbas Salimi-Namin titled “America’s Fear of Admitting Defeat Against Iran.”

Salimi-Namin argued that Washington’s resistance to the seven-point plan, rooted in the earlier Islamabad talks, reflected the White House’s unwillingness to acknowledge that framework as a strategic setback.

US policymakers, he wrote, still cling to the prospect of delivering a “crippling blow” to Iran and fear the domestic political cost of acknowledging failure more than continued escalation.

Kayhan went considerably further.

Editor-in-chief Hossein Shariatmadari portrayed US demands for verifiable nuclear concessions as evidence that Washington never intended to negotiate in good faith.

He argued that linking freer navigation through the Strait to nuclear concessions was an attempt to strip Iran of its principal leverage while maintaining US economic and military pressure.

Kayhan criticized what it described as the Foreign Ministry’s excessive “patience” and called for non-attributable maritime interdictions, deployment of coastal anti-ship batteries and expanded targeting of Western-escorted vessels.

Global energy markets, it argued, must face an “unbearable cost” before Washington lifts its blockade.

The moderate daily Sharq offered an almost opposite prescription.

In a commentary, Ahmad Zeidabadi argued that despite the rigidity of the US response, Washington’s decision to send detailed feedback through Qatar showed that a diplomatic off-ramp remained open.

He urged the government to preserve the Qatari channel and proposed a two-stage approach under which Iran could offer targeted technical assurances, including temporary IAEA monitoring protocols, in return for an immediate, phased easing of restrictions on commercial transit under the Islamabad memorandum.

Zeidabadi rejected calls for military escalation, warning that abandoning shuttle diplomacy as restrictions on Iranian aviation and banking intensify would push the country towards deeper economic and civilian isolation.

The contrasting reactions show how Washington’s response has shifted the argument in Tehran from whether diplomacy should continue to what price Iran should be prepared to pay for it.

Jame Jam occupies a space somewhere between the positions represented by Kayhan and Sharq: deeply skeptical of Washington’s intentions, but portraying the impasse as a product of US reluctance to acknowledge Iran’s leverage rather than as grounds for immediately abandoning negotiations.

With an actual US response now before Tehran, those competing interpretations are no longer arguments about a hypothetical deal. They are becoming arguments over how Iran should answer.

Rasaei said during an online parliamentary session on Sunday that Ghalibaf, former president Hassan Rouhani, President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council had filed complaints against several lawmakers.

He said one of those complaints had resulted in a 10-month prison sentence against him. Rasaei described the ruling as “non-legal” and “political,” but said he would report to prison to serve the sentence.

Rasaei was elected third in Tehran in the parliamentary election three years ago, when around 80 percent of eligible voters in the capital boycotted the election.

He is the first sitting lawmaker to be sent to prison during his term in office.

The complaint dates to before Rasaei was elected to parliament and concerns a case brought by Ghalibaf against the weekly 9 Dey, where Rasaei was managing director. The complaint followed an article published in January 2024 under the headline “Ghalibaf’s Manipulation of Parliamentary Documents.”

The judiciary announced on Monday that Rasaei had appeared at Tehran’s Special Clerical Court and was sent to the clerics’ section of Evin Prison the same day to begin serving his sentence. According to the judiciary’s statement, Rasaei had more than 18 months to resolve the case by apologizing to Ghalibaf.

Rasaei’s positions are closely aligned with those of the Paydari Party and former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili.

Hardliners react to the sentence

Rasaei’s supporters have accused Ghalibaf of “silencing the voices of critics” and criticized him for pursuing the complaint against Rasaei rather than focusing on the country’s economic and security problems.

Figures associated with these groups and their media outlets also attacked Mohseni-Ejei. The criticism has spilled over into some recent nightly pro-government gatherings.

Mohammad-Manan Raeisi, a Qom lawmaker who headed Saeed Jalili’s presidential campaign in the city two years ago, sharply criticized Ghalibaf and other officials and warned of a possible popular backlash against them.

“I doubt that, under these circumstances, people will allow you to appear in any mosque, gathering, public square or religious ceremony, and you may face a popular backlash,” he wrote.

Meysam Nili, managing director of the Raja News website and a figure associated with the Paydari Party, accused the judiciary of injustice and political bias, claiming that a “coup” was being organized against media and political figures belonging to the faction.

Hardline social media user Mohsen Maghsoudi, referring to arguments in favour of negotiations with the United States, wrote: “When it is possible to negotiate with the killer of the martyred Imam (Ali Khamenei) in the national interests and still talk about negotiations despite receiving insult, humiliation and aggression, why can’t we, in order to preserve unity, drop a three-year-old complaint over the headline of a weekly newspaper so that a revolutionary representative does not go to prison and hundreds of thousands of people’s votes do not become ineffective for 10 months?”

Other conservatives push back

Other conservative figures have sharply criticized the controversy generated by Rasaei’s supporters and the hardline groups.

The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency published an article headlined “On Mr Rasaei’s Strange Fallacies!” and described his objections to the ruling as “slander against a judicial ruling.”

Tasnim said Rasaei had effectively challenged the validity of the ruling by describing it as “strange” and “contrary to procedure,” while accusing the judiciary of political conduct by calling the ruling “political and non-legal.” The agency characterized his statements as criminal.

The Tabnak website published a video showing hardliners chanting in support of Rasaei and against Ghalibaf at one of the nightly gatherings. It called them “infiltrators” and said a small number of people were using the gatherings to “advance factional objectives.”

The conservative Khorasan newspaper said Rasaei’s refusal to apologize had led the court to conclude that he was not only unrepentant about the allegations he had made against Ghalibaf, but was also refusing to resolve the case and defying a judicial order.

Mojtaba Zarei, a member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, wrote that turning a judicial case into a political and media confrontation during wartime would only deepen divisions among political forces.

Deepening confrontation

Hardliners have stepped up attacks in recent days against political rivals who support resolving the dispute with the United States through negotiations and returning to the Islamabad understanding.

They have gathered outside the home of former President Hassan Rouhani, whom they accuse of being subservient to the West, and called for him and his former foreign minister, Mohammad-Javad Zarif, to be prosecuted.

They also chanted against President Masoud Pezeshkian and called him an “infiltrator” as he returned from New York, where he attended the UN General Assembly. Hardliners have also registered an impeachment motion against Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi over his meeting with Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Iran, and launched an online campaign calling for Pezeshkian’s removal.

The developments put Iran’s efforts to secure relief for maritime trade alongside mounting economic pressure at home and warnings from Iranian and US officials over further confrontation.

“We are awaiting an official response from the United States through the mediators,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.

Qatar was expected to relay Iran’s proposals to Washington and return with a response, possibly by Wednesday, Araghchi said. Iran had made no concessions and reopening Hormuz remained conditional on its demands being met, he added.

“At present, the only issue is the Strait of Hormuz,” Araghchi said. “Iran’s conditions are entirely fair and reasonable. If the Americans say they want an agreement or a peaceful solution, we have presented that solution.”

Oil flows recover despite risks in Hormuz

Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered despite disruption around Hormuz, potentially reducing the impact of restrictions on one of the world’s most important energy routes.

Oil shipments through the strait and alternative routes have returned to nearly 80% of pre-war regional levels, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday.

Crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates have climbed to almost 13 million barrels per day this month, their highest level since February, according to ship-tracking data cited by the Journal.

Risks to shipping persist. A vessel transiting Hormuz was struck by a suspected unknown projectile Monday evening, causing a fire that was later extinguished, the UK Maritime Trade Operations said. The crew was safe.

Against that backdrop, Iran tied the security of regional energy infrastructure to its own ability to export oil. “If we do not sell oil in a region, no one will sell oil there, and if our security is not guaranteed, no infrastructure will be safe,” parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tuesday.

Rial crosses 2.5 million per dollar

Iran’s free-market exchange rate crossed 2.5 million rials to the dollar Tuesday, extending a currency decline that has increased import costs and eroded household purchasing power.

The dollar had reached 2.418 million rials Monday before gaining more than 80,000 rials, or over 3%, in less than 24 hours.

The decline comes alongside inflation, falling production, trade restrictions, foreign-currency shortages and difficulties transferring money.

Iran is seeking alternatives to maritime trade. Rail freight from China has increased tenfold since the US naval blockade began, lawmaker Meisam Zohourian said.

Three rail routes and expanded capacity at northern ports could provide overland capacity equivalent to about 400,000 barrels of oil a day, though they could not fully replace maritime trade, Zohourian said.

Revolutionary Guards prepare message to Americans

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards have addressed the American public in a letter portraying Iran as the victor in the war with the United States and crediting Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership for the outcome.

“This is a letter, not a propaganda effort to shape the media narrative,” IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said Tuesday.

The letter said Khamenei’s “unparalleled command” had left “the world’s two leading military powers” unable to prevail and argued that his leadership gave Iran an advantage the United States lacked.

“A God-fearing and just leader, a wise scholar and a pure and courageous ascetic — this is what your armed forces and your country lack and do not have,” the Revolutionary Guards wrote in the letter to Americans.

Mohebbi also called US President Donald Trump “a big liar” and said Washington had no choice but to acknowledge failure and leave the region.

Washington, for its part, warned Iran against targeting US interests beyond the confrontation over Hormuz. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran had openly threatened American interests around the world and would face repercussions for any attack or attempted attack.

Iran’s government, however, coupled its readiness for further conflict with an openness to diplomacy. “We are not afraid of war and we do not run away from negotiations,” government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said.

The letter, published by Iranian media on Tuesday in English and Persian, presents the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a force for the people, portrays Iran as victorious and the United States as a power in decline, and returns repeatedly to a single instruction: that Americans turn against the politicians they elected.

The Guards and their Basij volunteer force led the suppression of nationwide protests in January, in which security forces killed tens of thousands of people in two days. A UN fact-finding mission said this month that the crackdown involved crimes against humanity.

Signs of 'decline'

"Tyranny, an excessive tendency to behave violently and murderously, relying on and promoting falsehoods, giving precedence to the vulgar elements of society over the wiser elements in occupying positions of power, and an inordinate preoccupation with inessential matters at the expense of society's essential affairs" are the signs of a state in decline, the letter says.

"The United States government today exemplifies all of these flaws."

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'Not a single verifiable instance'

The United States designates the Guards as a foreign terrorist organization. The letter rejects the label.

"There is not a single verifiable instance where the IRGC has committed an act of violence against civilians," it says. "In fact, it would not be an overstatement to assert that the Guards are the world's most effective organization in combating terrorism."

Amnesty International said this month that Iranian authorities carried out a systematic campaign of killings, torture and sexual violence to crush the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising of 2022. It named 87 officials, including senior Guards and police commanders, whom it said should be investigated for crimes against humanity, and documented 377 protest-related deaths, 56 of them children.

The UN fact-finding mission's report on the January 2026 crackdown cited unlawful killings, torture, arbitrary detention and enforced disappearances, and said the scale of the violence was a sharp escalation from earlier repression.

The Guards' Quds Force arms and funds Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq. Since the war began in February, Guards naval forces have attacked commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

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'Take back control'

The letter tells Americans they are responsible for their government.

"You are the ones who empower, with your votes, the government and allow it to do what it does," it says. "Although American politicians often win your votes through deception and false promises, as Trump did, you can change the makeup of the government."

"The United States of America is a great nation," it adds. "To allow vulgar and immoral individuals to continue steering your politics and policies will only further humiliate and undermine the US. Take back control."

In Iran, candidates for president and parliament are vetted by the Guardian Council, an unelected body, before they can stand. The supreme leader is not elected by voters. Official turnout in the 2024 presidential election was about 40 percent.

The letter also explains the slogan "Death to America." "The true meaning of 'Death to America' is 'Death to the crimes perpetrated by the American elite,'" it says. "It is, in a word, not an expression of ill will toward the American people."

The slogan is chanted at state-organized rallies and Friday prayers across Iran and appears on murals maintained by the state in central Tehran, including on the walls of the former US embassy.

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'The dam will break'

The letter attacks Donald Trump and tells Americans their economy is failing.

"The US economy is on the precipice of collapse, and yet he keeps on telling Americans that the economy is booming and the prices will soon start coming down," it says. "This is, perhaps, his biggest lie. Soon, the dam will break, and the economy will implode, causing, unfortunately, great pain for Americans for many many years."

"The US economy will be hit by a massive economic earthquake that will affect the lives of all Americans," it adds. "You, the American people, have the power to forestall this grim fate."

On the day the letter circulated, the dollar traded above 2.5 million rials on Iran's open market. Iran's minimum monthly wage of 166 million rials is worth about $66 at that rate.

'We can live together'

The letter closes by asking Americans to press Washington to distance itself from Israel.

"We can live together in peaceful coexistence," it says. "Remove from power the evil, deceitful, and violent politicians who are responsible for America's current state. Entrust your affairs to the wise, not the wily. Make sure your politicians understand that the world has changed."

Flight-monitoring data from Flightradar24 indicate that US aviation sanctions have reduced Iran’s international flights by about half in one week. Almost all of Iran’s international flights over the past month have been operated by Iranian airlines, as foreign carriers have largely stopped flying to the country.

The latest restrictions reach beyond Iranian airlines themselves. Airports, fuel suppliers, ground handlers, ticket sellers and other companies providing services to sanctioned carriers can risk US penalties, giving businesses in third countries an incentive to stop handling Iranian flights.

Iranian-operated flights to the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Georgia and Azerbaijan have been suspended or sharply restricted, while Iranian carriers remain barred from Iraqi airports despite a limited resumption of services by Iraq’s national airline. Flights to China and Russia continue, while services to several other destinations, including Turkey and Afghanistan, have remained available.

For passengers trying to reach countries no longer served directly, that increasingly means flying through cities such as Istanbul, Islamabad, Kabul, Beijing, Dushanbe, Yerevan or Moscow before continuing to their destinations.

The detours can add hours or even days to journeys and substantially increase costs.

Turkey has become one of the most important remaining gateways. Iran Air flights between Tehran and Istanbul were still operating Monday, according to flight-tracking data, although Mahan Air has already suspended its Turkey services and Turkish Airlines has no Iran flights scheduled before March 2027.

Turkey Today reported Monday, citing two sources, that the remaining Iranian flights to Turkey were expected to be suspended in early October. No formal announcement of a complete suspension has yet been made.

Longer routes, higher costs

Mahan, a 42-year-old Iranian who has lived and worked in the United Arab Emirates for years and regularly travels to Tehran to visit her elderly mother, said her latest return journey to Dubai showed how quickly the restrictions were changing ordinary travel.

With direct options unavailable, she flew from Iran to Armenia on Sunday, spent the night at a hotel in Yerevan and continued to Dubai the following day.

Including the hotel and transportation in Armenia, she said the journey cost almost three times what she previously paid to travel between Iran and the UAE.

The trip was also more stressful, she said, because the hotel arranged for her was a considerable distance from the airport.

Other passengers she encountered had taken an even more difficult route. They told her they had traveled overland from Iran to the Armenian border and then continued roughly 400 kilometers by bus to Yerevan.

They described carrying luggage through crowded border areas and struggling to find transportation for the long journey from the crossing to the Armenian capital.

Najaf becomes test case

Iraq has emerged as one of the clearest examples of the complications created by Washington’s aviation pressure because of the volume of religious and family travel between the two countries.

Baghdad airport stopped accepting flights operated by Iranian airlines on September 22. Iranian aviation authorities initially sought to redirect some Baghdad-bound services to Najaf, one of Shiite Islam’s most important pilgrimage centers.

Najaf airport then suspended all flights to and from Iran on September 25, cutting off the alternative route and affecting large numbers of Iranian pilgrims traveling to Najaf and nearby Karbala.

The Iraqi government subsequently opened direct talks with Washington for exemptions from US Treasury measures. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s office said it was seeking exemptions allowing travel for medical treatment, education, religious visits and other civilian purposes.

Reuters reported Monday that the Trump administration was preparing a one-month waiver allowing Iraqi Airways to carry Shia pilgrims between Najaf and Iran, with a more permanent exemption potentially following. The proposed waiver applies specifically to the Iraqi national carrier.

Iraq’s state news agency later reported that Iraqi Airways had resumed flights between Najaf and Iranian airports.

Iran, however, disputed reports that Iran-Najaf flights had broadly resumed. Civil Aviation Organization spokesman Majid Akhavan said Tehran had received no official communication authorizing a resumption and said Iranian airlines remained unable to restart the route.

The two accounts refer to different operators: the Iraqi announcement concerned Iraqi Airways, while the Iranian statement addressed the ability of Iranian carriers to return to Najaf. Iraqi media also reported Monday that the ban on Iranian airlines remained in force even as Iraqi Airways resumed flights to Iranian airports.

The distinction gives Baghdad a way to restore at least some pilgrimage traffic without immediately reopening its airports to sanctioned Iranian carriers.

The disruption had already created political pressure in Iraq. Demonstrations were held in Baghdad and Najaf against the suspension, while Iranian officials warned that restrictions on air links could affect the broader relationship between the two neighbors.

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of Iran’s parliamentary National Security Committee, pointed to Iraq’s reliance on Iranian electricity and gas and warned that policies obstructing bilateral ties could have consequences in other areas.

Iranian website Rouydad24 described the flight dispute as a test of relations between Tehran and Baghdad, noting Iran’s role in Iraq’s energy supplies and its past support in the fight against Islamic State.

Tehran warns its neighbors

The aviation restrictions have also produced increasingly sharp warnings from Iranian political figures toward governments cooperating with Washington.

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned regional countries last week that if Iranian aircraft were prevented from flying, airports elsewhere in the region could also be unable to operate.

The council’s secretariat later sought to distance itself from interpretations that Iran was threatening military attacks on regional airports, saying military retaliation over the flight restrictions was not on the agenda.

Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, nevertheless issued a separate warning Friday.

“Alignment with America in implementing hostile policies will remain in the memory of the Iranian people,” Mokhber wrote on X.

“Flights in the region are either free for everyone or for no one,” he added. “If Iran cannot fly or receive airport services, no country in the region will have this possibility either.”

The remarks prompted support from some hardline social-media users, including calls for Tehran to impose a no-fly zone over the Persian Gulf or threaten airlines serving neighboring countries.

Others criticized the approach. Amir Abbasi, an X user, compared the aviation warnings with previous Iranian threats to prevent other countries from exporting oil if Tehran was unable to do so.

“Perhaps these threats have a domestic use, but a crisis cannot be solved with slogans,” he wrote.