Iran's state broadcaster says its building targeted by airstrikes

Israel spent years hacking Tehran’s traffic cameras and penetrating mobile phone networks to monitor the movements of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his security detail ahead of his assassination, the Financial Times reported, citing multiple current and former Israeli intelligence officials and other people familiar with the operation.

Nearly all traffic cameras in Tehran had been hacked for years, with footage encrypted and transmitted to servers in Tel Aviv and southern Israel, according to two people familiar with the matter cited by the newspaper.

One camera angle proved particularly useful in determining where bodyguards parked their personal cars and provided insight into the routines inside the compound near Pasteur Street, one of the people said.

Complex algorithms were used to add details to dossiers on members of Khamenei’s security guards, including their addresses, duty hours, routes to work and which officials they were assigned to protect, building what intelligence officers call a “pattern of life,” according to the report.

The Financial Times said Israel also disrupted components of roughly a dozen mobile phone towers near Pasteur Street, making phones appear busy when called and preventing members of Khamenei’s protection detail from receiving possible warnings.

A current unnamed Israeli intelligence official told the newspaper that long before the strike, “we knew Tehran like we know Jerusalem,” describing a dense “intelligence picture” built through data collection involving Israel’s signals intelligence Unit 8200, human sources recruited by the Mossad and analysis by military intelligence.

Israel also used a mathematical method known as social network analysis to sift through billions of data points and identify decision-making centers and new targets, a person familiar with its use told the Financial Times.

According to two people familiar with the matter, Israeli intelligence relied on signals intelligence, including hacked traffic cameras and penetrated mobile phone networks, to confirm that Khamenei and senior officials were present at the compound on the morning of the strike.

The Americans had an additional human source providing confirmation, the sources said, according to the report.

The Israeli military issued an urgent evacuation warning for residents in Tehran’s Evin district, specifically highlighting the area around Iran’s state broadcaster, as it signaled planned operations against what it called regime military infrastructure in the coming hours.

In a statement, the Israeli army said it has carried out strikes in Tehran in recent days and would continue activity in the specified zone shortly. The warning referenced a map marking the targeted area in red and urged all individuals present to leave immediately.

“Remaining in this area puts your lives at risk,” the statement said, calling on civilians to evacuate for their safety.

A senior Revolutionary Guards commander warned Tehran would target shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and strike oil infrastructure in the Middle East to prevent exports.

“Any ship that seeks to pass through the Strait of Hormuz we will set on fire,” Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari said in remarks carried by Iranian media on Monday.

“We will also attack oil pipelines and will not allow a single drop of oil to leave the region,” he said, adding that “oil prices will reach $200 in the coming days.”

"Two days ago, the Iranian regime had 11 ships in the Gulf of Oman, today they have ZERO," US CENTCOM said in a post on X.

"The Iranian regime has harassed and attacked international shipping in the Gulf of Oman for decades. Those days are over. Freedom of maritime navigation has underpinned American and global economic prosperity for more than 80 years. US forces will continue to defend it," it added.

Iran’s constitution allows for both. It requires the Assembly of Experts to choose a new supreme leader “at the earliest possible opportunity,” with no specific deadline.

In practice, the leadership may balance urgency against security risks. Naming a successor swiftly could reassure the political establishment and signal stability at a moment of national crisis. But during an active conflict, concentrating authority in a single new figure could also create a fresh focal point for external pressure.

Whatever timing Tehran ultimately chooses, the succession process itself is well defined.

In the Islamic Republic, the supreme leader is both the highest political and religious authority. His powers are sweeping. He serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, appoints the head of the judiciary and sets the state’s core strategies and red lines.

The constitution requires the leader to be chosen by the Assembly of Experts and to possess distinguished religious scholarship, deep knowledge of Islamic jurisprudence and politics, and strong managerial ability.

The interim leadership council

If the leader dies, resigns or becomes incapacitated, the constitution mandates that a successor be selected without delay. Until that happens, a temporary three-member council assumes his powers.

The interim council was formed immediately after Khamenei’s death: President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and senior conservative cleric Alireza Arafi, a member of the Guardian Council and head of Iran’s seminaries.

The council oversees the armed forces, manages national security and supervises key institutions. Its authority, however, is strictly temporary and ends once a new leader is appointed.

How the leader is selected

The Assembly of Experts is composed of 88 clerics elected every eight years in nationwide polls. All candidates must first be vetted by the Guardian Council for religious and political qualifications.

Formally, the Assembly not only selects the leader but also monitors his performance and has the authority to dismiss him if he is deemed unfit. In practice, it has consistently endorsed Khamenei’s leadership without public dissent.

To choose a successor, the Assembly convenes in closed session. Members review potential candidates, assess their qualifications and vote. A majority is sufficient. If no candidate fully meets the constitutional criteria, members may select a figure based on overall leadership capacity.

Deliberations are confidential, and the result is announced only after a decision is finalized.

Power behind the scenes

While the constitution assigns the process to the Assembly, informal power centers may prove decisive.

Senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are widely believed to play a decisive role in shaping elite consensus. Intelligence and judicial institutions can also shape outcomes through internal assessments of potential candidates.

Senior clerics in Qom, particularly grand ayatollahs with independent religious authority, may indirectly influence opinion within the Assembly. Although they hold no formal role in the vote, their views can carry weight in determining religious legitimacy.

Given the current climate of unrest and regional conflict, the interplay among these actors could prove pivotal. For many within the system, the overriding priority is likely to be continuity and institutional survival.

Potential successors

Khamenei’s will has not been made public, and he did not officially designate a successor. Nonetheless, several names have circulated for years.

Mojtaba Khamenei, 55, the late leader’s second son, is a mid-ranking cleric believed to wield influence behind the scenes. Though he has never held senior elected office, he is thought to have close ties to parts of the security establishment.

Alireza Arafi, 65, a member of the interim council, is considered a conservative with strong institutional ties. His leadership of the seminaries and role in the Guardian Council position him as a potential consensus candidate within the establishment.

Hassan Khomeini, 53, grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder Ruhollah Khomeini, teaches in Qom and oversees his grandfather’s shrine. He is associated with reformist and centrist political circles and was disqualified from running for the Assembly of Experts in 2016. His religious credentials and symbolic lineage could strengthen his standing, particularly if broader legitimacy is seen as valuable.

Mohammad-Mehdi Mirbagheri, 63, a hardline cleric and member of the Assembly of Experts, is known for his staunch ideological positions and close alignment with conservative currents.

Mohsen Araki, 69, a former Guardian Council member with experience in international religious outreach, has also been mentioned as a possible contender.

Ultimately, the succession will hinge less on public debate than on negotiations within the clerical and security elite.

Tehran will want to project normal constitutional continuity, but in the middle of a war it is entirely possible that internal power dynamics and external pressures—not just the formal procedures—will shape both the leadership outcome and Iran’s future.