Israel may hit Iran next year if enrichment resumes – Al-Monitor

Israel may strike Iran within the next year if it concludes Tehran is moving to restore high-level uranium enrichment, European diplomats told Al-Monitor on Saturday.

One Western diplomat said a new campaign would be “short and intense” but strategically limited. “Iran will evidently retaliate with a missile launch, perhaps hitting buildings the way it did last time,” the diplomat said, adding that the fundamental balance of power would remain unchanged.

Enrichment described as the main red line

The current post-war equilibrium is deeply unstable, Raz Zimmt of the Institute for National Security Studies told Al-Monitor. Israel, he added, has yet to define precise red lines on Iran’s ballistic missile program, but a return to enrichment, weaponization work or attempts to recover the roughly 408 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent believed lost in the June attacks would almost certainly trigger a response.

“The more time passes without the United States and Iran reaching a nuclear agreement, the more likely a new round of conflict becomes,” Zimmt said.

Stalled diplomacy and Iranian pressure

Iran is rebuilding its air defenses, missile systems and protective measures around nuclear sites – a process Zimmt said could continue for up to a year without prompting an Israeli strike. But he warned Iran is effectively stuck in a “no war, no peace” posture, a phrase invoked by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with sanctions eroding the economy while enrichment remains constrained.

Khamenei’s recent remark that the US is “not worthy” of engagement has further complicated prospects for diplomacy. Israeli officials argue any future US-Iran deal must cap enrichment at 3.67 percent, restore intrusive inspections and resolve the fate of the missing enriched uranium. Without those terms, some say, sanctions relief would be unjustified.

Zimmt noted Washington shows little urgency. Trump, he said, appears convinced the 2025 strikes destroyed Iran’s program – a view that reduces US pressure and leaves Israel preparing for what it sees as an increasingly likely confrontation.

Iran-linked network in Chad trained Africans to target Israelis - Infobae

Dec 6, 2025, 19:30 GMT

Interrogations of rebels detained in Chad uncovered an Iran-backed network recruiting and training Africans to target Western and Israeli interests, Argentina's Infobae online newspaper reported citing Chadian officials.

Chad dismantled two networks accused of being tied to Iran, the report said quoting Chadian security forces.

Officials described a strategy of infiltration, indoctrination and promises of support for coups aimed at expanding Tehran’s influence in Africa.

According to Infobae, the interrogations detailed how the Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force and Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) allegedly recruit and train African citizens for operations targeting Western and Israeli interests.

In 2023, Israel asked visiting Chadian President Mahamat Deby to reduce the influence of Iran and Hezbollah in Africa’s Sahel region, four years after the Muslim-majority country in central Africa restored its relations with the Jewish State.

Déby visited Israel to open Chad’s new embassy in the country, where he also made a rare stop at Mossad headquarters, a signal that the renewed ties carry national-security weight.

The alleged push for influence in Chad is not an isolated case, as Iran has been reportedly sending military equipment to Chad's eastern neighbor Sudan whose army is fighting against the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces.

Iran's alleged recruitments in Chad

The Infobae report says one of those detained by Chadian authorities admitted to investigators that he had been recruited by Iran's intelligence ministry. The detaine, identified as Ali Abdoulaye Mahamat, said the process began after studying at the Al-Mustafa International University in Iran's Qom.

Mahamat told authorities he met Iranian intelligence officers in hotels in 2022 and 2023. He said he was instructed to identify American, Israeli and French activity, recruit new members and map links between local rebel groups and Iranian handlers, according to the report.

He also described an intelligence officer named Karim, who he said escorted him to hotels, restaurants and secret locations and confiscated his phone. Mahamat told officials Karim demanded detailed information on foreign military movements and intelligence services operating in Chad.

Pressed by his handlers, Mahamat said he eventually provided names of Chadian intelligence officers and individuals allegedly in contact with Israelis.

Chad’s authorities say another detainee, Abdoulaye Ahmat Sheikh Alamine, confessed to being recruited by the Quds Force. During his interrogation, he said the cell he belonged to was directed by Department 400, which operates in Iraq, Africa and other regions.

He told investigators he received weapons training — including Kalashnikovs, RPGs and KFX systems — and traveled to Iraq under the guise of religious trips, where the group met Iranian contacts and trained alongside Shia militias, according to the report.

Mahamat also told investigators that MOIS officers posing as Iranian Foreign Ministry representatives instructed him to collect information on international presence in Chad, recruit assets for military training and assess the needs of rebel groups such as FACT.

According to Infobae, Chad’s security services say the revelations show a coordinated Iranian approach combining religious indoctrination, military training and promises of political power in exchange for attacks on Western and Israeli interests.

Chadian officials told the outlet their operations disrupted, at least temporarily, what they describe as Tehran’s efforts to expand influence and destabilize the region.

Last month, Iran International revealed an alleged Iranian plot targeting the Israeli embassy in Senegal and Israeli personnel in Uganda, which were thwarted by Mossad.

The operation was directed by the Quds Force, the IRGC’s overseas arm, which relied on a proxy network of Pakistani and Bangladeshi nationals based in Iran, alongside locally recruited operatives in Africa — many of whom were said to have been enlisted through social media.