Israel says it hit Houthis' last plane as PM blames Iran

During a high-profile visit to Washington in May, KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani announced the deals with HKN Energy and WesternZagros, targeting development of the Miran and Topkhana-Kurdamir gas fields in the western part of the region near the Syrian border. Together, the projects are valued at $110 billion over their lifetime.

The US-KRG energy deals have sent a powerful message—both to Baghdad and to Tehran. If realized, they could shift Iraq’s energy independence and diminish Iran’s regional clout.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright praised the deals at the Al-Monitor Global Institute in Washington on May 22, calling them “very aligned with President Trump’s agenda.”

He added, “We need Iraq and others off Iranian dependence.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Prime Minister Barzani in Washington on May 23. According to the State Department, the Secretary praised the energy agreements and reaffirmed US support for a strong and resilient Kurdistan Region within a sovereign and prosperous federal Iraq.

But analysts believe without a breakthrough in Baghdad-Erbil relations and tangible infrastructure investment, the deals remain aspirational—more of a political statement than a pipeline to regional transformation.

Iran’s gas grip at risk

Iran currently supplies around 25% of Iraq’s electricity needs through natural gas exports. Should the Kurdish projects proceed, that influence could be seriously eroded.

According to Iman Nasseri, Managing Director for the Middle East at FGE, Iran has little to gain financially from its gas exports to Iraq, and growing domestic shortages are shifting Tehran’s calculus.

He told Iran International, “They’re (Iraq) receiving gas for free because they have the excuse of not being able to pay due to US sanctions....Iran would welcome any scenario that could get Iraqis off the contract that they have signed with the Iranians [...] because they are short in natural gas at the moment."

Nasseri said that while the gas fields targeted by the US-KRG deals—estimated to hold 13 trillion cubic feet collectively—are indeed substantial, the main obstacles to their development have always been political and economic, not technical.

Strategic implications for Iran

Meanwhile, Baghdad swiftly denounced the agreements. Iraq’s Oil Ministry declared them “null and void." A senior Iraqi official told Reuters the central government had not been informed in advance.

KRG’s Ministry of Natural Resources defended the move, citing existing legal frameworks and long-standing contracts validated by Iraqi courts.

Energy analyst Dalga Khatinoglu told Iran International that the gas reserves in Iraqi Kurdistan—estimated at over 211.9 trillion cubic feet —are large enough to position the region as a major exporter to Turkey and Europe.

While Iran holds five times more gas, he warned, Tehran risks losing its most critical energy customers if the Kurdish fields come online.

“Iran earns $5 billion a year from gas exports to Iraq and Turkey,” Khatinoglu said, underscoring the threat to both revenue and regional influence. If Kurdish gas starts reaching Turkey and Europe, Iran not only loses market share—it loses geopolitical leverage.

US policy or political signal?

Ambassador John Craig, a former senior US diplomat, told Iran International the announcement may signal more of a “test” than a decisive turning point.

“The KRG is testing the water—to see how the Iranians react to it and how the US reacts to it,” he said, emphasizing that Iran “no longer has the punch” it once did following Israeli strikes that “took out all their munitions factories” and weakened Tehran’s regional leverage.

Craig is a former US ambassador to Oman under President Clinton and later served as director for the Middle East at the National Security Council under President George W. Bush.

He said that while the Kurdish leadership may see an opening to act more independently, the projects are far from being realized. “This is not going to happen in the next 10 months, no. It’s long term,” he said. “Exploration, production, development—it could take three to five years.”

Nasseri also described the deals as more symbolic than real, likening them to ‘wishful thinking’ without the conditions needed for execution. He emphasized that Kurdistan currently lacks a viable off-taker, adding, "you can’t develop gas without finding a place and an off-taker that can consume that gas.”

"This morning, two individuals attacked and assassinated Judge Ehsan Bagheri, head of Branch 102 of Shiraz Criminal Court 2, on his way to work. Unfortunately, he was martyred in this terrorist act," local judiciary chief Sadrollah Rajaei told Iran’s official IRNA news agency.

"This assassination was carried out with a cold weapon," he added.

Iran’s judiciary chief Mohseni Ejei condemned the assassination, calling it "cowardly," according to a statement published on Mizan.

The statement said that Ejei also ordered an urgent investigation into the incident and called for the perpetrators to be identified and prosecuted swiftly.

No details about the motive behind the assassination or the identities of the attackers have been released by Iranian authorities.

IRNA’s report said that Bagheri was 38 years old and had 12 years of judicial experience.

Iran's judiciary-affiliated news agency Mizan said that before becoming a criminal court judge, Bagheri spent over a decade at the Public and Revolutionary Prosecutor’s Office. The Revolutionary Court system in Iran, where he served, is responsible for handling cases related to national security, political and ideological offenses.

Earlier this year, two Revolutionary Court judges, Mohammad Moghiseh and Ali Razini, were assassinated in Tehran on January 18. Both had decades-long records of issuing death sentences and lengthy prison terms to dissidents in numerous cases.

Last month, Iran International reported that the man who shot Moghiseh and Razini was identified as Farshid Asadi, a 31-year-old court service aide, according to a source familiar with the matter.

The source said Asadi originally intended to also target former Revolutionary Court judge Mahmoud Toliyat but changed his mind for unknown reasons before fatally shooting himself.

“If they [Israel] are in a rush to receive another True Promise operation [aerial assault], we are fully ready to deliver an appropriate strike — and collect on what they already owe us,” Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, Commander-in-Chief of Iran’s Army, said during a military ceremony using the code name of Iran’s direct attacks on Israel.

Mousavi’s comments come amid a multi-front conflict between Israel and Iranian-aligned forces, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, groups in Syria and Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen, in the wake of the war in Gaza sparked by Iran-aligned Hamas's October 7 attacks on Israel.

Israeli and US officials have said that recent operations have weakened Iran’s regional capabilities, particularly following an Israeli airstrike on Iranian targets including air defense systems in late October, and a spate of attacks on infrastructure and leadership of Iran's strongest ally, Hezbollah, last year.

Responding to what he described as “rhetoric” from Israeli leaders, Mousavi dismissed the threats as bluster, saying the Israeli leadership “lacks the capacity to harm the greatness of Iran.”

He added that Tehran’s response, should conflict escalate, would bring “extraordinary challenges” for Israel and its allies.

The remarks echo recent comments from senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Fadavi, who said in February that Iran would launch a third direct strike on Israel “in due course” — an operation dubbed True Promise 3.

Iran's first direct attack on Israel, Operation True Promise 1 on April 13 involved over 300 missiles and drones targeting military installations with minimal damage, retaliating for the killing of two Iranian generals in Damascus.

Operation True Promise 2 on October 1 followed with around 200 missiles targeting Israeli military facilities after the assassination of Iran-aligned militant leaders, including former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh.

Fadavi said that Iran had withstood external threats for over four decades, describing the United States and Israel as “the Great Satan and its partners.”

The phrase, a hallmark of the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary rhetoric, underscores Iran’s framing of its confrontation with the West as both geopolitical and ideological.

Despite the combative tone from Tehran, US and Israeli officials maintain that their policies of deterrence and sanctions are limiting Iran’s influence and delaying its nuclear ambitions.

US President Donald Trump, who has expressed his optimism over the ongoing indirect nuclear negotiations, which he says are preferred over threats of 'bombing' Iran, also reinstated the “maximum pressure” campaign aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program and regional activities.

"You cannot threaten Iran on one hand and claim to support dialogue on the other," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on several occasions since the negotiations began.

The task group, which transited the Suez Canal early Saturday morning, includes warships from several NATO allies: Canada’s HMCS Ville de Québec, Norway’s HNoMS Roald Amundsen and logistics vessel Maud, and Spain’s ESPS Méndez Núñez. HMS Richmond is expected to join the group shortly.

The eight-month operation aims to strengthen defense ties and project the UK’s presence across the Indo-Pacific. Activities will include joint exercises, regional port visits, and security patrols in coordination with the United States, Australia, and Japan, according to the UK Ministry of Defense (MoD).

"This deployment demonstrates our commitment to upholding regional stability and ensuring maritime freedom," the MoD said in a statement.

The carrier group integrates UK F-35B stealth jets, Merlin helicopters, unmanned systems, and allied platforms in a range of training and operational missions, including anti-submarine warfare and integrated air defense.

Royal Air Force (RAF) assets provided overwatch during the transit. Two Poseidon MRA1 maritime patrol aircraft were observed operating over the Sinai Peninsula Saturday morning.

In preparation for the transit, the RAF also reinforced its forward base at Akrotiri, Cyprus, deploying four Voyager aerial refueling aircraft from RAF Brize Norton earlier in May.

The deployment comes at a time of heightened tension in the Red Sea region. Despite a recent ceasefire agreement between the United States and Yemen's Houthi rebels, the UK is not a signatory.

The move follows the departure of the US aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman from the Red Sea, leaving the area temporarily without a US carrier presence. While the USS Carl Vinson remains in the wider region, British officials acknowledge the vulnerability of the UK-led group as it operates near conflict zones.

Last month, the UK participated in a joint airstrike with US forces against a Houthi military facility in Yemen, targeting infrastructure used to manufacture drones implicated in attacks on commercial shipping.

The Houthis accuse the British of aiding Israel in the war in Gaza, supplying weapons, spare parts and intelligence.

There has been no formal announcement of the manoeuvre from the British military.

Iran International has put a request for comment to the Royal Navy.

As Arab states astride the Persian Gulf prosper, Iran remains mired in grievance, repression and decline, according to former Palestinian peace negotiator Ghaith al-Omari on Eye for Iran.

“The Persian Gulf is non-ideological. Their leaders say, ‘My job is how to make life better for my people.’ This is completely incompatible with the ideological mindset—including in Iran,” al-Omari said.

As Saudi Arabia and the UAE surge ahead—reimagining their economies and societies—Iran clings to a narrative rooted in the past.

“What is the narrative coming from the Iranian regime? It’s a narrative of grievance... rooted in the past, in both past grievances and past glory... not a view of prosperity.”

Al-Omari said the Middle East is undergoing a seismic shift, with Persian Gulf countries becoming the “center of gravity” in the region—and Trump recognizing and seizing that opportunity.

Decades of neglect

During his speech at the US-Saudi Investment Forum in Riyadh on May 13, 2025, President Trump drew a sharp contrast between the trajectories of Saudi Arabia and Iran. The president anccused Iran’s leadership for mismanaging the country and funding terrorism, while praising the transformation of its neighbors.

“Iran's decades of neglect and mismanagement have left the country plagued by rolling blackouts lasting for hours a day. All the time, you hear about it. While your skill has turned dry deserts into fertile farmland, Iran's leaders have managed to turn green farmland into dry deserts, as their corrupt water mafia—it's called the water mafia—causes droughts and empty riverbeds,” said Trump.

His remarks resonated with many Iranians, long critical of Tehran's failures. The speech reinforced a new US posture in the region—one that rewards progress and punishes destabilization.

Trump’s Persian Gulf tour also produced sweeping economic and defense agreements.

A $142 billion arms deal was signed, the largest defense cooperation agreement in US-Saudi history. It includes cutting-edge warfighting technology and signals a shift in US strategic posture.

Saudi Arabia committed to investing $600 billion in the United States across energy, defense, mining, and other sectors.

Taken together, these moves represent a strategic pivot: away from traditional diplomacy, and toward a model focused on mutual economic and security interests.

And one in which Iran—after its unprecedented direct missile attack on Israel last year—is increasingly isolated and weakened.

Even Syria adapts—leaving Tehran more isolated

Even Syria—long seen as a spoiler in regional affairs—is signaling a shift.

"Syria has been a spoiler in the region since the 1970s," said al-Omari. "Now Syria is not a spoiler."

Trump's outreach to Damascus, despite its authoritarian legacy, underscores the extent to which even old adversaries are repositioning themselves in a changing Middle East. As others pivot toward stability and integration, Tehran's confrontational stance risks leaving it behind.

Qatar

Qatar was also a focal point of Trump’s tour.

Qatar Airways agreed to purchase up to 210 planes from Boeing. Trump described it as “the largest order of jets in the history of Boeing.”

He also accepted a Boeing 747-8 aircraft from the Qatari government, valued at roughly $400 million. Trump said it would be “stupid” to turn it down, framing it as a donation to the US Department of Defense, not for personal use. The move sparked backlash, even among Trump’s own supporters.

Al-Omari criticized Qatar’s influence strategy, noting its financial clout and controversial alliances.

“Qatar is a very problematic actor. Qatar has been the supporter of Hamas, the supporter of Muslim Brotherhood, the supporter of disruption throughout the region.”

He added that while Persian Gulf countries all have relations with Iran, “Qatar has partnership with Iran in many ways. That’s different.”

Trump made headlines when, during a state dinner in Doha, he said: “Iran should say a big thank you to the Emir, because he's fighting for them.”

He also reportedly asked the Qatari government to push Iran toward a nuclear deal.

“The Qataris like these problematic relations to be behind the scenes, to be hush-hush," said al-Omari on Eye for Iran, "Trump being Trump, he doesn't like to play this subtle behind the scenes game. He says it as it is."

A new era of American diplomacy

Al-Omari said Trump’s approach marks a sharp departure from previous presidents like Barack Obama.

“Trump sees the region through a transactional lens. Obama focused on moral lectures. Trump prefers investment and deals—but keeps military options on the table, especially when it comes to Iran.”

The administration wants Iran to integrate into this future-oriented regional order—but warns of consequences if it doesn’t.

“There’s an opportunity for Iran if it wants to take it,” said al-Omari. “The region is changing—but not at any price.”

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran featuring Ghaith al-Omari on YouTube or listen on any major podcast platform like Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music or Castbox.