Iran International
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Saturday that the removal of US sanctions could serve as a confidence-building measure to pave the way for negotiations with Washington.
Speaking to foreign diplomats in Tehran, Araghchi’s remarks marked a re-emphasis on a position Iranian officials have frequently taken since the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) in 2018. It is unclear whether his comments signaled a policy shift or were intended to test the international response ahead of any potential talks.
Following the US exit from the JCPOA under President Donald Trump, senior Iranian officials, including then-Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, maintained that Tehran would not enter into new negotiations unless sanctions were lifted or the US returned to the deal. That stance remained largely consistent throughout the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign.
Now, with Trump back in office and reportedly considering a tougher approach—including military threats—Iran’s renewed insistence on lifting sanctions before any negotiations may be seen either as a negotiating tactic or as a reaffirmation of a long-standing position.
It is not yet known whether this demand was included in the official letter Tehran sent to President Trump recently. Public discourse has increasingly focused on the format of possible talks, with Iranian officials emphasizing their preference for indirect negotiations over face-to-face meetings. Analysts suggest this preference could be driven by both domestic political considerations—such as preserving the government's image after years of hostile rhetoric toward Trump—and strategic calculations, including buying time in the hope that future developments may shift the diplomatic landscape.
Insisting on sanctions relief as a precondition could also function as a means of slowing down the diplomatic process, allowing Tehran to manage expectations and retain leverage. While such a stance could be seen as obstructive, it may also be calculated to prompt a measured response from Washington. Notably, the Biden administration, which preceded Trump’s return, took a more restrained approach to sanctions enforcement even before formal nuclear talks resumed in April 2021.
Iranian oil exports to China began to rise prior to the 2020 US election and have remained high into 2024. This trend may factor into Tehran’s thinking, with the possibility that pressing the issue of sanctions could influence US decision-making or encourage a pause in new restrictions as a way to facilitate dialogue.
The US military has in recent days deployed long-range bombers at a strategic Indian Ocean airbase amid escalation of tensions with Tehran, a move which presaged major bombing campaigns against Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003.
In an exclusive interview with Iran International, former CENTCOM commander and CIA chief David Petraeus described the deployment as a step toward preparing for military action against Iran if it failed to reach a deal with the Trump administration over its disputed nuclear program.
"They are also steps to show that we are very serious and that you should not do this, and therefore trying to deter Iran from doing what would be unacceptable and would force the United States to take action," he said.
Petraeus said, "There's great concern about how close Iran is to the possibility of having a nuclear weapon. They're literally just one turn of the enrichment process from having weapons-grade uranium. That is something that President Trump has said he will never allow the Iranians to have a nuclear weapon."
Trump has warned Iran would be bombed if it did not agree to a new nuclear deal, prompting Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to say on Monday that the Islamic Republic would deal a "strong blow" in retaliation for any attack.
Iran's retaliation
Iran has threatened to target American interests in the region, including its strategic Diego Garcia naval base in the Indian Ocean if it is attacked by the US.
However, Petraeus says Trump would not stop at a limited attack on the nuclear sites and would go after the Islamic Republic's air defense and missile capabilities.
"You probably have to take out some of the retaliatory capacity of Iran as well because you don't want to just take out the nuclear program and then have them go after the bases where we have forces, and that would then bring in all these other countries, of course," he said.
"This is not just a surgical attack on discrete nuclear capabilities. This is against the retaliatory capabilities, against the defense capability, and that's what has to be done if you're going to carry out this operation."
Plan to destroy Iran's nuclear program
Petraeus said he actually developed the plan to destroy Iran's nuclear program over 15 years ago when he was the commander of the US Central Command.
"It's publicly known that we actually rehearsed that plan one time inside the United States, with all the planes flying all the distances that they would have to fly, the refuelers, all the command and control, the jammers that drop, the munitions that we would drop, and so forth. And it all worked."
"We were prepared one time actually, to set the theater, in other words, to identify all the locations from which the planes would fly, where they would be based. The munitions were in place, the food, fuel, water, etc. All was set. We thought there was a likelihood of this. We told the White House we probably should get more prepared than we were."
'Israel proved it's possible'
Petraeus said Iran currently "does have more effective, more elaborate air and ballistic missile defenses" than in the past. However, he said, "Israel penetrated them twice, showing that that can be done."
Last October, Israeli air strikes against Iran's military sites knocked out the country's last three Russian-provided S-300 air defense missile systems, leaving the country "naked", Fox News reported citing US and Israeli officials.
The surface-to-air S-300s were the last in the Islamic Republic's arsenal after one was destroyed in an attack in April 2024 also likely carried out by Israel, Fox News quoted a senior US official as saying.
Still, Petraeus says Iran has "more retaliatory capability in terms of missiles and so forth, even though Israel dramatically reduced the ability of Iran to make solid fuel rocket engines from several per day to one or two per week."
Bunker busters
The former CENTCOM commander said the US military has bombs like the 30,000-pound GBU-57, aka Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), that "is very accurate and can penetrate very hardened targets".
"It would be used against the most deeply buried hardened targets... you can imagine which target that might be," he said, adding that the use of such bunker busters is "not just possible but would be necessary" in a potential strike against Iran.
Iran’s most secretive nuclear facility, known as Fordow, has been carved deep into a mountain in central Iran, and is reportedly some 90 meters (295 feet) deep. It is also protected by several feet of reinforced concrete.
In 2012, defense experts contacted by Reuters believed the chances of a US strike against Fordow succeeding are slim. However, Petraeus says, "they can do enormous damage and destruction".
