US President Donald Trump's letter to Iran's Supreme Leader on talks is a pointless feint, an editorial by the Revolutionary Guards' news outlet Tasnim said, adding that a deal already exists in the form of a 2015 nuclear agreement.
The message from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a paramilitary body at the heart of the Iranian establishment, appears to be a firm rejection of Trump's message to Iran to demonstrably rule out nuclear weapons or face military strikes.
"The letter, for various reasons, is primarily a psychological operation rather than a sincere political move," the unsigned letter in Tasnim said.
"If Trump is sincere in his stated concerns, such an agreement that guarantees U.S. satisfaction has been on the table since 2015," it added, referring to an international nuclear deal from which President Trump withdrew the United States in 2018.
Trump said on Thursday that Tehran would need to ditch a nuclear program much of the West views as a precursor to building nuclear weapons or face military force.
Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon and says its program has peaceful aims.
"There are two ways Iran can be handled, militarily or you make a deal. I would prefer to make a deal because I'm not looking to hurt Iran," Trump said.
The IRGC is a key economic, domestic enforcement and foreign operations body which along with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei guide Iran's policy.
More moderate members of Iran's civilian government championed the 2015 nuclear deal with United Nations Security Council members plus Germany during the Democratic administration of Barack Obama.
Slamming his predecessor as too lax, Trump pulled out of the agreement after fellow Republicans said it did not properly curb the Iranian nuclear and missile threat nor its militant activities in region.
In his second term, the hawkish president has repeatedly vowed to deny Iran a nuclear bomb but had yet to convey his demands to Khamenei personally or so specifically moot military attacks as the alternative to an understanding between the arch-foes.
Russia is an active geopolitical player with its own vested interests, Nematollah Izadi told ILNA News Agency on Friday.
"There is no doubt the Russians are interested in mediating between Iran and the US, but whether they can do so effectively remains in doubt," Izadi said. "They play a role in regional issues concerning Iran, the US, and Europe and have their own interests. Therefore, they cannot be impartial mediators."
He also urged Iran to adopt a balanced foreign policy, warning against over-reliance on a single ally.
"If Iran fails to do so, all of its foreign policy ‘eggs’ will end up in Russia’s basket—and most likely China’s as well," he said. "This will undoubtedly have negative consequences, as it will limit Iran’s options."
His remarks come following an alarming report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) earlier this week.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi revealed that Iran had significantly increased its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, raising further concerns over its nuclear intentions.
Grossi also acknowledged that Western sanctions have failed to curb Tehran’s nuclear expansion, with its program growing significantly in recent years.
“Sanctions aren’t working,” Grossi told Bloomberg. “Quite obviously, the country has learned to circumvent them. The program has grown enormously, especially since 2018.”
The IAEA has consistently argued that there is no credible civilian use for uranium enriched to 60%, as it is just a short technical step from weapons-grade (90%) uranium.
Russia’s expanding role in Iran talks
As Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West intensifies, Russia has positioned itself as a key diplomatic actor, proposing talks with Washington.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov met with Iranian Ambassador Kazem Jalali on Thursday to discuss international efforts to resolve issues surrounding Iran's nuclear program, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced on Friday.
Moscow has agreed to assist the US in communicating with Iran on various issues, including its nuclear program and support for regional anti-US proxies, according to a Bloomberg report on Tuesday, later confirmed by the Kremlin.
The report, later picked up by Russian state media, quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying that "Russia believes that the United States and Iran should resolve all problems through negotiations" and that Moscow "is ready to do everything in its power to achieve this."
Last month, before the Russian offer of mediation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran, where both sides "aligned their positions" on the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal that unraveled following the US withdrawal in 2018.
Additionally, in an exclusive interview with BBC Persian, Russia’s IAEA envoy Mikhail Ulyanov dismissed Western concerns about Iran’s uranium enrichment, calling US and European warnings a "political pressure tactic."
"Our Western colleagues seem to think the Middle East is too calm, and they want to add fuel to the fire," Ulyanov said.
Missile program and regional influence: a key sticking point
A major sticking point in nuclear negotiations is whether talks will include Iran’s missile program and regional influence, issues that the US insists must be addressed in any new deal, but Tehran and Moscow reject.
"Negotiations should not include Iran’s missile program or its regional influence," Ulyanov said. "Adding these topics would complicate the process and make it unmanageable."
This mirrors the original 2015 JCPOA, which focused solely on Iran’s nuclear program while excluding its missile program and regional activities, a framework Iran insists must remain unchanged.
Iran's shift away from the West
Izadi’s concerns over Russia’s mediation come amid Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s ban on negotiations with the United States, issued in early February after President Donald Trump announced plans to intensify sanctions. Trump called for an agreement that would permanently prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Khamenei has long pushed for closer ties with Russia and China, rejecting reliance on the US and Europe, a stance that has hardened since the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and renewed sanctions.
This shift has had domestic political consequences, most notably in the forced resignation of Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s former Foreign Minister who negotiated the JCPOA.
Moscow's entrance onto the scene either flips an Iranian ally against its nuclear ambitions or provides a spoiler which drags out talks and buys the Islamic Republic a breather from looming Israeli strikes.
The initiative follows a direct request from US President Donald Trump during a phone call on February 12, 2025, with subsequent discussions taking place between top officials from both administrations in Saudi Arabia.
The Kremlin has expressed its commitment to facilitating peaceful negotiations between Washington and Tehran. This positions Russia as a key intermediary, leveraging its established relationships with both nations.
Historically, Switzerland has been acting as a diplomatic conduit between Tehran and Washington since the early 1980s. Several Arab states have also offered their mediation services on various occasions, including the Sultanate of Oman, Qatar, and, more recently, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Russia’s diplomatic involvement, however, presents a different dynamic.
Deep state access
As a global power and a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Russia has cultivated a strong security partnership with Iran, particularly since the onset of the Ukraine war in February 2022.
Russia’s unique access to Iran’s deep state provides President Putin with significant leverage to pressure Iranian decision-makers into making nuclear concessions—an essential step in preventing military escalation in the coming months.
From Iran’s perspective, Russian involvement in resolving the “Iranian nuclear problem,” as Russian officials term it, presents both an opportunity and a challenge.
Under Russian diplomatic oversight, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may find it more difficult to maintain his strategy of nuclear escalation vis-à-vis the Trump Administration, including rhetorical threats to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and outright rejection of negotiations.
Tehran might become more open to indirect and discreet dialogue with Washington if Moscow encourages it to do so.
Unlikely boon
Beyond the potential impact on Iran’s nuclear strategy, Russia’s mediating role offers the Iranian political establishment a means to achieve its primary goal: avoiding both war and substantive nuclear or regional negotiations with Washington during Trump’s second term (2025-2029).
A Russian diplomatic intermediary could help ensure the security and survival of the Islamic Republic, deterring a potential US-backed Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. But the shifting balance of power following a US-Russia rapprochement means Iran could once again become a bargaining chip in renewed US-Russian diplomatic negotiations at the presidential level.
In other words, a closer Trump-Putin relationship could reduce Tehran’s strategic relevance in Moscow’s eyes. This short-term marginalization of Iran does not signify the end of its pragmatic partnership with Russia but rather the potential reemergence of US influence over Iranian decision-making through Russian mediation.
Since the early 2020s, Iran has advanced its uranium enrichment activities, prompting international concerns over possible nuclear weapon development—claims that Tehran consistently denies despite growing internal political debate on potential nuclear militarization.
The US remains steadfast in preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, working closely with allies like Israel to address these concerns. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), designed to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanctions relief, has been under strain, especially following the US withdrawal from the agreement in 2018.
This led Iran to deviate from its commitments. A potential future Russian mediating role could temper the Trump Administration’s inclination to align with Israel’s hardline approach against Iran’s nuclear advancements, potentially reducing the likelihood of an Israeli military strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
Mideast: Russian returns
Beyond the Iranian nuclear issue and regional policy, Russia’s recent diplomatic manoeuvres underscore its ambitions to reassert its role in Middle Eastern affairs in the post-October 7 era.
This potential return is facilitated by its ongoing rapprochement with Washington and the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine in 2025.
The proposal to restore direct air links between the US and Russia, discussed during negotiations in Istanbul, signifies a potential thaw in relations. Talks also addressed the normalization of embassy operations, reflecting a mutual interest in improving diplomatic and economic ties.
However, Russia’s deepening ties with Iran add complexity to its role as a mediator, especially in the context of rising military tensions between Iran and Israel, the US’s primary ally in the region.
In January 2025, Russia and Iran signed a comprehensive 20-year strategic partnership agreement covering defense, technology, energy, and trade sectors. While this partnership strengthens bilateral relations, it may also compromise Russia’s impartiality in mediating US-Iran tensions.
Looking ahead, Russian mediation could lead to renewed negotiations aimed at reviving or restructuring a nuclear agreement that addresses the shortcomings of the JCPOA.
Such an agreement could ease some economic sanctions on Iran while implementing stricter nuclear oversight. However, the success of these efforts will depend on the willingness of both the US and Iran to engage in constructive dialogue and make necessary concessions.
Russia's strategic interests and geopolitical priorities—particularly in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine—will play a crucial role in shaping the outcomes of these diplomatic initiatives in the coming months.
