Will Trump square a security strategy that Biden could not?

“Many inquire about the fate of Operation True Promise 3. That is not my concern,” Mohammad-Reza Naghdi said. “We, as Basij forces, are focused on pursuing Al-Aqsa Storm 2 to bring an end to Israel, and that day is fast approaching.”

Tehran refers to its direct strikes on Israel as Operation True Promise, with the first taking place in April and the second in October. Additionally, Tehran has referred to Hamas's attack on Israel last year as Al-Aqsa Storm.

Naghdi’s comments come after the IRGC’s leadership took a stronger tone last month. IRGC commander Hossein Salami hinted at the possibility of more direct involvement in actions against Israel, reflecting intense Israeli attacks in the region.

Meanwhile, the United States is preparing to renew strict measures against Iran under President-elect Donald Trump. According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump’s administration plans to revive the “maximum pressure” campaign aimed at reducing Iran’s economic capacity to fund armed groups and other adversarial activities.

On Tuesday, Mike Waltz, Trump’s soon-to-be national security adviser, also said, “The change you’re going to see is more focus on Iran.” During his previous term, Trump’s administration implemented extensive sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry, aimed at curbing its nuclear program and weakening its regional influence.

Iran’s proxies have faced notable losses over the past year. In September, a precision Israeli strike in Beirut killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and several senior commanders. Israeli military sources estimate that around 3,000 Hezbollah operatives have been killed since October 2023, while Reuters reports the figure could be as high as 4,000.

Meanwhile, Hamas has also faced significant challenges in Gaza. Over a year of Israeli bombardment has caused severe damage to the group’s infrastructure, reportedly killing more than 17,000 operatives since last year’s offensive began, according to Israeli military sources.

On Wednesday, a 60-day ceasefire brokered by the United States and France between Israel and Hezbollah took effect. This agreement aims to pause 14 months of fighting that began following Hamas’s October 2023 invasion of Israel. During this period, Hezbollah fired more than 17,000 projectiles at Israel in support of Hamas.

These movements have highlighted an unexpected strength within the opposition, placing pressure on the Iranian-backed Syrian authorities amid an already complex political and military landscape.

These developments come at a critical time for the Syrian government, which is grappling with deep internal pressures due to a deteriorating economy and growing public discontent. Externally, Assad faces diminishing Russian support as Moscow remains preoccupied with the conflict in Ukraine, alongside mounting battlefield losses among Iranian-backed allies.

These shifts on the ground appear to signal a change in the rules of engagement in Syria, raising questions about the ability of both local and international actors to adapt to these changes and what they might mean for the country’s political future.

Unexpected military tactics

The operations were launched with meticulous coordination among different factions of Islamist groups and the Syrian National Army (SNA), focusing on strategic targets. Although the timing of the attacks was unexpected, evidence suggests that preparations had been underway for months, bolstered by advanced weaponry.

Armed drones and other sophisticated tools played a pivotal role, enabling the opposition to effectively manage the conflict and secure rapid territorial gains into Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city.

Within hours, opposition forces seized key strategic locations, including stretches of the M5 highway and major military bases such as Brigade 46 and Regiment 46. These swift gains highlighted the opposition’s ability to challenge Assad’s forces—and even Russian troops—when sufficiently supported. Notably, the operations set aside internal factional disputes, presenting a rare display of unified military coordination.

The opposition’s treatment of prisoners added a notable dimension to their strategy, as humane practices are rarely observed in the Syrian conflict. Even HTS, an internationally designated terrorist organization, appeared to adopt a more calculated approach in handling detainees. This shift may reflect an effort to send a positive signal to the international community and position themselves for potential political transformation and broader acceptance on the global stage.

International stakeholders

The Syrian government finds itself in a precarious position, suffering heavy losses among its troops and allied militias. Iranian-backed militias, a critical pillar of support for Assad, have faced significant setbacks, including the death of a senior Iranian advisor and members of Hezbollah. These developments underscore Iran’s continued direct military involvement in Syria, despite mounting losses that reflect the depth of its entanglement in the conflict.

Meanwhile, Russia, a steadfast supporter of Assad, appears increasingly constrained in its ability to intervene decisively to restore balance, largely due to its focus on its invasion of Ukraine and growing international pressures. This could prompt Moscow to scale back its direct military support for Assad, opening the door to unpredictable military and political changes.

On the other hand, Turkey’s role in these operations cannot be overlooked. Analysts suggest that Ankara aims to achieve strategic objectives, including facilitating the return of thousands of Syrian refugees to safe zones in northern Syria and pressuring Assad to accept a political settlement on new terms.

Despite their field successes, extending the conflict to other regions, such as Deir ez-Zor, appears unlikely. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by the international coalition, control territories east of the Euphrates, while areas west of the river remain dominated by Iranian militias and Assad government forces. Any military advance into these regions would require significantly greater logistical support and troop numbers.

Shifting balance of power

These developments indicate that the Syrian conflict may be entering a new phase of escalation, potentially compelling Assad and his allies to reconsider their military and political strategies. As domestic and international pressures on the government intensify, the urgency for political solutions has grown, likely requiring terms that differ significantly from those previously proposed.

Iran: Official reactions and battlefield losses

On the official level, Iran has expressed deep concern over what it describes as the resurgence of “terrorist takfiri groups” in Syria. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei warned that these developments pose a serious threat to regional stability, accusing the United States of orchestrating a “malicious plot” to destabilize the region. Iran called on regional countries to enhance cooperation to thwart these threats, framing them as part of a broader strategy to undermine Syria’s and the region’s stability.

Tehran blamed the armed factions for violating de-escalation agreements established under the Astana process, in which Iran, Turkey, and Russia serve as guarantor states. It described recent attacks near Aleppo and Idlib as blatant breaches of these accords, warning that continued operations could jeopardize the progress made in reducing violence over recent years.

Iran reaffirmed its unwavering support for the Assad against what it considers “takfiri terrorism” and praised the sacrifices of its “resistance martyrs.” The killing of senior military advisor General Kioumars Pourhashemi during recent clashes in rural Aleppo was framed as evidence of Iran’s commitment to safeguarding regional security. Iranian officials stressed that such losses would not deter Tehran from continuing its support for the Syrian government until full security and stability are restored.

A New Chapter in the Syrian crisis

Amid these rapid and complex developments, Syria’s landscape appears set for a significant shift in military and political power dynamics. The recent changes underscore evolving strategies by both local and international players, reigniting the Syrian crisis on new fronts.

As the Assad government and its allies face growing pressures, the opposition is striving to consolidate its gains, bolstered by limited but strategic support. The central question looms: will these developments open the door to a political resolution that could end the suffering of the Syrian people, or is the country destined for prolonged escalation, further entrenching the tragedies of the conflict?

Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi, also known as Haji Hashem, was a senior military advisor in Syria, the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News reported, adding that he was killed by “Takfiri terrorists,” a term widely used in Shiite-majority Iran to refer to jihadists or supporters of radical Sunni Islam.

Islamist militants from US-designated Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied rebel groups launched an offensive on Wednesday, seizing control of several towns and villages in northwest Aleppo province, a region under the control of Iran-backed supporters of the Bashar al-Assad government.

The attack marks the most significant operation since March 2020, when a ceasefire negotiated by Russia, a key ally of Assad, and Turkey, a supporter of the rebels, brought an end to years of fighting that had uprooted millions of Syrians opposed to Assad's rule.

The Syrian army reported heavy losses among the attackers, whom it described as "terrorists" operating across a broad front. The army also said it was working with Russia and unnamed "friendly forces" to regain territory and reestablish previous lines of control.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that at least 130 people have been killed in the fighting, including 65 members of the HTS, 18 allied fighters, and 49 Syrian government soldiers.

Referring to the Wednesday attack, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the unrest in Syria was part of a US-Israeli design aimed at destabilizing the region’s security, during a phone call with his Lebanese counterpart Abdullah Bou Habib, Iran's Foreign Ministry quoted him as saying.

Russian warplanes, alongside Syrian fighter jets, have bombarded opposition positions near the Turkish border as part of efforts to repel the attack, Reuters reported on Thursday.

Syrian opposition forces are said to be operating near Aleppo within the boundaries of the Idlib de-escalation zone established in a 2019 agreement between Russia, Iran, and Turkey, the Reuters report added citing Turkish security sources.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Thursday that Hezbollah had “shattered the myth of Israel's invincibility” during the conflict, forcing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to beg for peace despite extensive US support.

“Over the past year, Netanyahu has drained American taxpayers of tens of billions of dollars for his war crimes and enjoyed full military and political support from the US government," he said on X.

“However, after suffering heavy losses in southern Lebanon, he was forced to beg for a ceasefire. Once again, Hezbollah has shattered the myth of Israel's invincibility."

He did not mention anything about the assassination of the group's top leadership, including long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, killed in a precision strike in Beirut in September. Around 3,000 Hezbollah operatives are also believed to have been killed in the operations, according to the Israeli military. According to Reuters, the number could be as many as 4,000.

Araghchi also framed the ceasefire as a turning point, urging Israel to recognize its defeats in both Gaza and Lebanon.

In Gaza, Israel has also dealt critical blows to Iran-backed Hamas with the group splintered into a guerrilla force after more than a year of Israeli bombardment has destroyed masses of its infrastructure. The Israeli military asserts that over 17,000 Hamas operatives have been killed since last year's offensive began.

At least 1,500 Hezbollah operatives, Iran's largest ally in the region, were also killed in a two-day operation by Israel which saw simultaneous explosions of walkie-talkies and pagers, an attack which seriously hindered the group, deemed a "terrorist" organization in countries such as the UK and US.

On Wednesday, a US- and France-brokered 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect, aiming to halt 14 months of intense conflict sparked by the Gaza war. Hezbollah has, since October 8 last year, fired over 17,000 projectiles towards Israel in support of Hamas in Gaza, which invaded Israel on October 7 last year.

The agreement mandates a 60-day cessation of hostilities, during which both Israeli and Hezbollah forces are to withdraw from southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers assuming control of the area.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps echoed the Iranian claims of victory. "The ceasefire on the Lebanese front is a strategic and humiliating defeat for the Zionist regime which did not even come close to achieving any of its evil goals and ambitions in the war against Hezbollah," he said, according to Iran's Press TV.

Following the Israeli ground incursion last month, many Hezbollah cadres fled southern Lebanon.

Fighters had “left the area” without demonstrating “meaningful defensive operations”, according to the Institute of the Study of War (ISW), a US-based conflict think tank.

A report by the NGO said: “Hezbollah fighters do not appear to be defending against Israeli forces in these [southern] villages as the Israeli forces have consistently encountered weapons caches and infrastructure formerly used by Hezbollah fighters that left the area”.

The institute said it was “unclear why Hezbollah is not conducting meaningful defensive operations in response to Israel’s ground operations”.

Some Iranians on social media are making fun of the claims of victory, enumerating Hezbollah's losses and Tehran's own requests for a ceasefire.

While Israel suffered its share of losses—including dozens of soldiers killed, tens of thousands displaced in the north, and attacks reaching deep into its territory—the overall damage inflicted on Hezbollah and its supporters in Tehran was far more severe, impacting them militarily and politically.

Here are eight key Hezbollah (and Iran) setbacks:

1. Failure to secure a Gaza ceasefire

Hezbollah launched this war with the aim of ending Israeli attacks on Hamas and achieving a ceasefire in Gaza. No such ceasefire materialised after 14 months of conflict.

2. Destruction of military infrastructure

Israeli airstrikes inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah's military infrastructure, destroying bases, ammunition depots, equipment, fortifications, and tunnels. These losses have significantly weakened the group's operational capacity.

3. Loss of senior commanders

Many of Hezbollah's top military leaders, including military wing commander Fuad Shukr, his deputy Ibrahim Aqil and southern front commander Ali Karaki were killed during the war. This marks the heaviest loss of senior leadership in Hezbollah's history.

4. Assassination of political leaders

The deaths of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s secretary-general for over 30 years, along with his deputy Hashem Safieddine and political council member Nabil Qaouk, have dealt a blow that the remaining structure of the group may find hard to mend.

5. Withdrawal from Israeli border

Under the ceasefire terms, Hezbollah is required to retreat to positions beyond the Litani River, approximately 25 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon border. This withdrawal diminishes Hezbollah’s threat to northern Israel, with Israel warning of severe military retaliation should Hezbollah attempt to return.

6. Disruption of arms supply

Israeli strikes on key crossings between Syria and Lebanon have disrupted Hezbollah’s supply of arms. Israeli officials have vowed to enforce the ceasefire by preventing Hezbollah’s rearmament. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, mindful of the fate of Nasrallah and other leaders, appears to take these warnings seriously, further limiting Hezbollah's logistical support.

7. Potential erosion of power in Lebanon

It's too early to gauge but Hezbollah’s political stature could prove to have been impacted by the losses mentioned above. The group has called his 14-months campaign a victory. It's unclear if the public in Lebanon agree with that assessment.

8. Iran's weakened regional Influence

The war’s fallout extends beyond Hezbollah, weakening the broader Axis of Resistance led by Iran. Hezbollah, once Iran's strongest proxy, is not what it was 14 months ago. Hamas has also suffered militarily, with key leaders and commanders killed.

Symbolic perhaps, but the destruction of the Iran Garden in southern Lebanon with its likeness of Qassem Soleimani overlooking Israel highlighted the declining influence and prestige of Iran in the region.