Firsthand reports from contributors inside Iran
Israel’s air strikes revived the specter of war long gone - a ghastly déjà vu for Iranians who weathered the nigh decade-old struggle with Iraq and a grim induction into its sights and sounds for those too young to remember.
This was the first major attack on Iran in nearly four decades. Israel's previous actions have been assassinations or sabotage.
Before last week, many Iranians were confident that there would be no war, that those ruling Iran are too wary of their survival to lead the country to a full-on conflict. That sense of hopeful security is now gone.
It was around 2am. The sounds of missiles and anti-aircraft gunfire awoke the capital. I rushed to my mobile phone. Most did, I suspect. In moments like this, you just know that nothing worthwhile is to be found on state outlets.
Social media is all that there is, even if rife with speculation and lies. The lack of reliable sources compounds the sense of crisis.
Rozita, a 42-year-old woman living in western Tehran, recalls: “I woke up from the terrifying sounds of explosions and the howl of missiles. My husband and our two young ones were asleep. I gently shook my husband. ‘Get up, Israel’s attacking,’ I said. We turned on the TV - nothing! He said you’ve imagined it. Just then my sister called. ‘Who watches TV?’ she said when I said nothing was on the news, ‘it’s all on Telegram.’”
Iran’s state broadcaster is a parallel universe visualized. Stones and rocks could be raining on Tehran and the TV would have a turbaned man offering relationship advice. Officials do not bother to inform the public.
Everyone’s left to their own devices.
“We talk a lot about war in my family," said Sepehr, a 35-year-old who works in an advertising firm.
“My father naively believes that even if there is war, it’ll just be military targets, and civilians will continue with their lives in peace. But the current situation—not a war but the specter of war—has already hit our business. I may or may not be killed if there’s war, but I’ll sure as hell lose my job.”
Iran’s currency fell rapidly in anticipation of an Israeli attack. It regained some of its loss when it actually happened - a sign, perhaps, that the markets were expecting worse. And then there was the gas station ritual. That’s what we do in these parts: rush to the nearest pump at the first hint of a crisis.
“Youngsters always joke about the run on pumps. But I do it all the time.” said Babak, 52, a factory worker living a hard life.
“War is not just a missile hitting your roof and taking you to the other world. That would be bliss. War is famine, chaos, displacement. A full tank helps you a bit further if you need to. You stock up everything at times of crisis. Why not gas?”
Very few believe a full-scale war is that close. But hearing explosions and seeing fiery projectiles has turned the abstraction to reality, however remote at the moment. And of course there’s the casualties - five, according to the official tally, four soldiers and one civilian nightwatchman.
Up until last week, many argued for an Israeli attack, reassuring others that civilians wouldn’t be harmed since Israel had promised to target only military personnel. The day after the attack, you could tell that that hopeful belief was being revisited.
Tahereh, a 24-year old student living in a dormitory in Tehran, thinks the distinction between civilian and military is not as clear as many suggest. “My brother is a conscript, a ‘zero-rank’ soldier. He failed to get into university and had to do his (mandatory) service."
"He cooks and sweeps and washes in a base. So is he a legitimate target? Would those who say Israel hits the Islamic Republic only be OK if my brother died?”
It’s a fair question. And people don’t agree on the answer, as far as I can tell. What most Iranians may agree on is that things look as if they will get worse before getting better.
War looms and prices rise. Officials in Tehran bluster and brag. In Tel Aviv, they warn that there’s more to come - that Iran’s skies are open with defense systems destroyed.
“Some say an Israeli attack hastens the demise of the Islamic Republic and welcome it if civilians are not targeted,” Tahereh adds, visibly worried about his brother who has to serve for another year at least. “They say there’s light at the end of the tunnel. I hope they’re right. I just fear that the light might be that of an oncoming train.”
In a statement on Tuesday, the EU condemned in the strongest terms the execution of the German-Iranian national and expressed its full solidarity with Germany. Similar remarks were made by European Union Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell on his X account on Tuesday.
“The European Union reiterates its call on Iran to end the distressing practice of detaining foreign civilians and dual nationals with a view to making political gains,” read the statement by the EU.
Iran executed the 68-year-old dissident who was a software developer and California resident on Monday. He was abducted by Iranian agents during a visit to the United Arab Emirates in 2020 and forcibly taken to Iran. In February 2023, the Iranian judiciary sentenced him to death on charges of endangering national security.
On Tuesday, Germany recalled its ambassador to Iran and summoned the Iranian chargé d'affaires. Several German officials, including German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Chancellor Olaf Scholz, spoke out against the killing, a move that prompted Iran to react and defend the execution.
The ambassador left Iran on Wednesday morning, said a German foreign ministry spokesperson.
The spokesperson added that the execution of Sharmahd has put "extreme" strain on the relationship between Berlin and Tehran.
The Islamic Republic’s foreign ministry summoned German Ambassador Markus Potzel over what the ministry called Berlin’s meddling in Iran’s internal affairs.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded to the announcement on X, saying, “How about 'an EU measure' to end the killing of more than 50k Palestinians in Gaza? How about 'an EU measure' to allow 1.5 million refugees in Lebanon to return to their homes? How about 'an EU measure' to support the families of those killed by Jamshid Sharmahd?”
“If not, Europe only stands for hypocrisy,” the foreign minister added.
Sharmahd was convicted of heading a pro-monarchist group named Tondar accused of a deadly bombing incident that occurred in 2008 at a religious center in Shiraz, killing 14 and injuring 215 more. The accusation, repeatedly denied by Sharmahd, was never substantiated by documented evidence. He was denied a fair trial and due process, as most other political prisoners, especially dual nationals.
“Iranian restrictions on consular access to our citizens, the denial of consular protection and fair trial are not acceptable and stand in direct violation of international law,” the EU noted in its statement.
The EU also slammed the high number of executions in Iran. "The European Union reaffirms its strong and unequivocal opposition to the use of death penalty at all times, in all places and in all circumstances, especially taking into account the alarming increase in executions recorded in Iran last year and this year."
Iran conducted the most executions of any country in the world after China last year, Amnesty said in a report in May, adding that nearly 75% of all executions worldwide in 2023 outside China were in Iran. The recent wave of executions brings the total number of hangings in Iran this year to more than 567, including 20 women, according to rights groups.
John Spencer, who spent 25 years as an infantry solider and officer in the US Army, and served as advisors to senior US army leaders, said Israel’s October 26 retaliation was both restrained yet powerful, and deliberately didn't reveal all of its capabilities.
“It was a very solid and impactful show of force that Israel can reach the Islamic regime in Iran, can penetrate all their air defenses to include the S-300 and can target and show restraint when it wants,” said Spencer.
Satellite images showed likely damage sustained to a base run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that builds ballistic missiles and launches rockets as part of its own space program. Iran launched a military satellite in space from Shahroud Space Center in 2020.
Tehran has largely remained silent other than acknowledging Israeli attacks taking place in Fars, Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran provinces, stressing that damages were limited.
Images from satellite firm Planet Labs also showed that in the four-hour attack overnight Saturday, a military base in Parchin near Tehran, where nuclear tests were allegedly conducted in the past, was damaged.
Parchin was marked by Iran as military, not nuclear. It was also one of the sites which had been banned from inspections by the UN’s nuclear team.
Spencer said Israel also damaged S300s which are used to protect vital targets, including Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei.
“Israel can hit anything it wants in Iran that it chooses to,” said Spencer.
Israel military chief said on Tuesday that if Iran attacks, they will hit back with capabilities that we did not even use last time.
“If Iran makes the mistake of launching another missile barrage at Israel, we will once again know how to reach Iran, with capabilities that we did not even use this time, and strike very, very hard at both their capabilities and locations that we set aside for now," said Israeli Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi.
He said Israel also reserved capabilities that it chose not to demonstrate, but the question is why?
Why Israel held back capabilities
Spencer said while nothing is black and white, Israel’s power lies in its allies, namely the United States, that wanted to avoid a full-scale war.
Guarantees were made by the Americans in exchange, said Spencer, like the US recently issued new sanctions against Iran's oil sector, including the so-called oil ghost fleet, which carries oil products sanctioned by the US.
Israel also took neighboring Arab countries into its decision-making factor that urged the US and Israel to avoid Iranian oil and gas sites for fear of reprisal.
With the US elections on November 5, there were a lot of considerations to be made, he said.
Donald Trump’s former national security advisor Ambassador John Bolton posted to X on Tuesday that there was pressure from the Biden-Harris administration and the impending US elections that forced Israel to retaliate against Iran in what Bolton described as a limited way.
“The Tehran regime has gotten away with too much for too long. After November 5, Israel should strike Iran’s nuclear-weapons program,” Bolton wrote.
There are growing calls inside Israel’s government to do more with Iran. While deterrence was established, an Israeli government source told Iran International, that the weekend strikes did not go far enough to avenge a Hezbollah drone strike last week on the seaside residence of Prime Minister Netanyahu. Iran denied any involvement in that attack, but Israel pointed the finger at the Islamic Republic, which it views as Hezbollah’s boss.
Israel’s Channel 13 news, said the security cabinet discussed the topic for "long hours," reporting that the weekend's strikes were not intended to avenge the attack on the PM's home, launched by Iran's largest militia, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. It said, "another response is expected".
Even some people inside Iran, from the pro-Israel camp, posted to social media that they were disappointed in Israel’s targets were hoping for strikes on Iran’s political leadership.
Some Iranians had invested hope in Israel to help overthrow the Islamic Republic rule especially after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech delivered to the Iranian people where he made a direct appeal to them.
“You deserve better,” said Netanyahu in a pre-recorded speech last month.
Brigadier General (res.) Amir Avivi told Iran International prior to Israel's counterstrike, that Israel will perform one of many strikes in the Islamic Republic.
Avivi, who is a close friend of Netanyahu and is consulted for his military expertise, said that Israel’s first strike in Iran is beginning and not a means to an end.
What will Iran do?
When asked if Iran would counterstrike, Spencer said if you take the Islamic Republic leadership at their word, then yes.
Pezeshkian sent a letter to the UN Secretary General, saying Iran “reserves its inherent right to legal and legitimate response to these criminal attacks at the appropriate time”.
Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said on Tuesday that Iran will respond to Israel. "Responding to Israel’s attack is our right, but the Islamic Republic will decide on this response itself, and we won’t allow anyone to drag us into emotional reactions."
Araghchi also noted that Tehran knows which countries allowed Israel to use their airspace to attack Iran, but the US is the main culprit.
Speaking at the United Nations Monday, Iran’s UN envoy told the Security Council, that it reserved the right to strike back. Iran also accused the US of being complicit in Israel’s airstrikes and said it would bear the consequences.
The US envoy, issued a warning to Iran, saying that any further aggressive actions against Israel or US personnel in the region would result in severe consequences.
“Stop pouring gasoline on the fire of the regional conflict,” the American envoy said, addressing the Islamic Republic.
Urban warfare expert John Spencer stated that Israel’s recent action serves as a deterrent, signaling to Iran that Israel could respond even more forcefully if Iran chooses to retaliate, given that it refrained from targeting additional sites. He also noted Iran’s often unpredictable behavior, making it difficult to forecast the Islamic Republic’s response.
However, Spencer cautioned against underestimating Iran’s capabilities. He warned that with the unpredictability of war and Iran’s actions, any Iranian retaliation targeting Israeli civilians could quickly escalate the conflict.
Iran still has thousands of cruise and ballistic missiles, for example.
“Iran still has the capability to conduct long range strikes against Israel. If it ratcheted up targeting civilian areas it would be really problematic. Nobody wants to see that.”
This round of Israeli strikes, though effective in destroying military targets while showing restraint, achieved important goals for Israel but the next move Iran makes will determine what unfolds in the near future.
Qassem, who has served as Hezbollah’s deputy leader since 1991, was elected by the group’s Shura Council. At 71, Qassem is regarded as a foundational member of Hezbollah, with long-standing ties to Iran.
Unconfirmed reports indicate that Qassem was flown from Beirut to Tehran on October 5 aboard a plane belonging to Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, following the Israeli assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reports, but if Qassem is based in Iran, Hezbollah’s leadership in Lebanon would then be managed remotely.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant hinted at Qassem’s vulnerability, posting on X shortly after his appointment that “Temporary appointment. Not for long.” In Hebrew, he adds: “The countdown has begun.”
In its official Arabic account on X, the Israeli government said: "His tenure in this position may be the shortest in the history of this terrorist organization if he follows in the footsteps of his predecessors Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine."
It added that "there is no solution in Lebanon except to dismantle this organization as a military force."
Iranian leaders publicly congratulated Qassem on his appointment. President Masoud Pezeshkian praised his “defense of Lebanon’s sovereignty and ideals of the resistance front,” while Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf lauded Qassem’s role in supporting Hezbollah’s cause in Lebanon and the region.
Qassem appeared on camera on October 8 from an undisclosed location, days after Nasrallah’s death and amid reports that Hashem Safieddine, another potential Hezbollah leader, was targeted by Israel.
In his statement, Qassem referred to the Israel conflict as a “war about who cries first,” pledging Hezbollah’s continued resistance despite what he called “painful blows from Israel.”
Iranian ties and ideological alignment
Qassem’s ties to Iran have been central to his role in Hezbollah. An advocate of the Guardianship of the Jurist doctrine, he regards Iran as the backbone of Hezbollah’s resistance efforts in Lebanon.
He has emphasized that Hezbollah’s presence in the resistance movement depends on Iran’s strategic support amid international pressure.
Born in southern Lebanon’s Kfar Fila in 1953, Qassem has held various roles within Hezbollah and the broader resistance movement. He co-founded the Union of Muslim Students in Lebanon in the 1970s and later joined the Amal Movement, before shifting to Hezbollah after Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. Qassem has also published more than 12 books on religious and political topics, including Hezbollah: The Story from Within, detailing Hezbollah’s ideological foundations.
He has also authored books on Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his predecessor Rouhollah Khomeini, who founded the Islamic Republic.
Education ties and sanctions
Qassem previously led Lebanon’s Islamic Religious Education Association and served as an advisor to Lebanon’s Al-Mustafa schools, which promote Shiite Islamic ideology and receive support from Iran’s Al-Mustafa International University. The US Treasury Department sanctioned Al-Mustafa International University in 2020, alleging its involvement in intelligence operations for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and recruitment for Iran’s Quds Force.
In 2018, the United States and its allies in the Terrorist Financing Targeting Center, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE, sanctioned Qassem and froze his assets, accusing Hezbollah of destabilizing the region.