The prospect of an Israeli attack on Iran has sparked new tensions within Iran’s opposition. Over 360 leftists, woke activists, and former Islamist/religious-nationalist figures have issued a statement titled "No to war, no to the Islamic Republic."
They argue that both the Islamic Republic’s policies and Israel's actions in the current Middle East conflict should be rejected. In contrast, constitutional monarchists, who have launched the "Stand by Israel" campaign on social media, believe that Iranians should support Israel in this ongoing conflict. There are also independent voices supporting Israel.
In terms of public attitudes toward Tehran’s foreign policy, approximately 65% of the population opposes the slogan "Death to Israel," while 23% support it. Meanwhile, 64% agree with the slogan "Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, I sacrifice my life for Iran," with 24% opposing it. Additionally, 73% back a common slogan about the Iranian government being the people’s enemy, and not the United States. These figures reflect significant public disagreement with some of the Islamic Republic's key foreign policy tenets.
At least 50% of ordinary Iranians are reportedly dissatisfied with the country's current state, as evidenced by consistently low voter turnout in recent elections. Many have also refrained from demonstrating public support for the government's missile strikes on Israel. Social media images have shown citizens celebrating the deaths of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah by distributing sweets. Due to the lack of independent polling, it’s unclear what drives public opinion on these issues, but well-known figures inside and outside Iran have voiced support for both sides of the debate.
Arguments of opponents of an Israeli attack
The common denominator of the arguments of the opponents of supporting Israel in a possible war can be seen in the statement they issued:
1. "The one-year bombing of the people of Gaza ordered by the Netanyahu administration... is a clear manifestation of genocide."
2. "The claim of Israeli fundamentalists to impose a "new order" in the Middle East is only an invitation to more conflict, killing and destruction in the region."
3. "Israeli bombs will not bring peace, democracy, and freedom to Gaza, Lebanon and Iran."
4. "Both sides of this inhumane war of attrition are fueling the increase in tension and the spread of war in the region, and the result is nothing but death and destruction, displacement, intensification of repression and suffocation, the growth of extremism and insecurity."
They conclude from the above four arguments that it is necessary to "prevent the spread of the war to new fronts and stop the war by increasing the pressure on all sides of the conflict and trying to establish an immediate ceasefire in the region."
Argument of Israel supporters
The common denominator of the points that Israel's supporters make in its current war with the Islamic Republic are as follows:
1. There is a long-standing historical connection between Iranians and Jews dating back to the era of Cyrus the Great, and Iranians have no significant motives or grievances for hostility toward Jews or their government. The current conflict is driven by the Islamic Republic, not the Iranian people. Today, the enmity toward Israel largely reflects the ruling elite's agenda, not the sentiments of the broader population.
2. The tension between Iran and Israel stems largely from Islamist ideology, which seeks to eliminate Israel for reasons unrelated to Iran's national security or interests. This ideological stance, rather than any direct threat to Iran, drives the conflict and animosity toward Israel.
3. The Islamic Republic and its supporters are not only enemies of Israel, but enemies of Iran and Iranians. For this reason, Israel is an ally of the Iranians in people’s fight against the Islamic government and they should stand by it.
4. After the fall of the current government, Israel could become Iran's strongest democratic ally in the region, as there is no geopolitical rivalry or conflict of interest between the two nations. In contrast, Iran faces significant issues with its Arab, Turkish, and Afghan neighbors. A free Iran and Israel could collaborate on key issues like water management, information technology, military strategy, and agriculture, fostering a mutually beneficial relationship.
5. Tehran's nuclear program not only targets Israel but also drains Iran's national resources, costing tens of billions of dollars and causing hundreds of billions in losses from sanctions and missed revenues. Many Iranians opposed to the government see no benefit in continuing this costly program, just as Israel does. For them, the nuclear agenda serves neither Iran's interests nor its future, but instead deepens the nation's economic struggles and global isolation.
6. Instead of Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, Iran's resources should be spent on Iranians, 90% of whom live near or at poverty levels. It is in the interest of the Iranian people that Israel weakens or removes the Islamic government from the region.
7. Iranians do not expect Israel to change their government for them. The focus of cooperation between Iranians and Israelis is on confronting common enemies and addressing shared security challenges, rather than promoting democratic reforms or government transitions.
During a live Iranian state TV broadcast, Masoud Asadollahi, a former deputy commander of the IRGC Quds Force, made remarks claiming that an Iranian company purchased pagers from a Taiwanese supplier on behalf of Hezbollah, which has since sparked controversy and denials.
“They (Hezbollah) already had thousands of pagers...but three to four thousand new pagers were needed. They asked an Iranian company to place the order. Hezbollah said they could not make the purchase as it would raise suspicions. The company negotiated with a famous Taiwanese brand that used to produce pagers and placed an order for 5,000 pagers. The pagers were delivered to the Iranian company. They were then given to Hezbollah,” said Asadollahi.
The devices later exploded in September, killing at least 42 Hezbollah-affiliated people and injuring over 3,000 in what has been described as Hezbollah's most significant security breach since its conflict with Israel escalated in October 2023.
Many questions were raised about how Israel had been able to rig the devices, while some Israeli reports said that the pager deal had been handled by a Mossad front company.
Asadollahi’s comments quickly went viral, fueling speculation across media outlets. However, just an hour after his remarks, the same state TV channel issued a denial.
Noor News, a website outlet closely affiliated with Iran's Supreme National Security Council, also posted a tweet on Saturday refuting Asadollahi’s claims.
"The incorrect statements made by an expert on IRIB have ignited new speculations surrounding the incident. Iranian companies had no role in the purchase, transport, or distribution of the pagers," the tweet stated.
Tasnim News Agency, another IRGC-affiliated Tehran website, published a report attempting to clarify the situation. It cited Hezbollah’s technical committee, which investigated the explosions and concluded that Israeli intelligence had infiltrated the supply chain through a shell company posing as the Taiwanese supplier. According to the report, no Iranian individuals or companies were found to be involved.
Reza Sadr Al-Hosseini, an expert on West Asian affairs, further downplayed Asadollahi’s remarks “The pagers were neither manufactured in Iran nor purchased by any Iranian companies, and no Iranian individuals were involved in the entire process," he said during an interview with the IRGC-linked Fars website. He also added that many of the pagers had not yet been distributed and that those affected by the explosions included ordinary citizens who had bought the devices from local markets.
The explosions, which targeted thousands of handheld pagers and walkie-talkies, were a coordinated attack linked to Israeli intelligence. Hezbollah’s switch to pagers in early 2024 followed concerns that Israel had compromised its cell phone network.
With both Iranian officials and media figures divided over the extent of Iran’s involvement, the situation remains fraught, particularly as tensions in the region continue to simmer.
Alex Vatanka, founding Director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, appeared on this week's Eye for Iran.
What the Islamic government in Tehran fears most is an attack on its nuclear infrastructure - its main accomplishment during 45 years of rule - Vatanka said.
The Iranian government is likely pressuring the American administration to rein in Israeli actions to prevent any attack on their nuclear sites, following the October 1 Iranian missile barrage, he said.
CNN is reporting that Iran is nervous and has engaged in diplomatic efforts with Mideast countries to try and reduce the magnitude of Israel's response to its ballistic missile attack earlier this month.
On Friday, Iran's president Masoud Pezeshkian met with Russia's Vladmir Putin, who called for a new 'world order' of Russian allies. Last week, Iran met with Saudi's Foreign Minister. Israeli's Channel 12 news reported that the United States and Arab nations were conducting secret backchannel negotiations with Iran aimed at reaching a comprehensive regional ceasefire. The US denies those claims.
CNN cited sources familiar with the matter, alleged that Tehran is anxious about whether the US can convince Israel to reduce the scale of their response.
This week a group of more than three dozen lawmakers in Iran have called for the country to pursue nuclear weapons. The unprecedented openness of Iranian officials and media discussing the possibility of a nuclear bomb—something unthinkable just a few years ago.
This all goes back to Iran's fear and growing uncertainty, Vatanka told the Eye for Iran Podcast.
"It indicates one important fear that the regime has as Iran is waiting to see what Israel will do in terms of its retaliation," said Vatanka.
"The message is to the United States: If you don't stop Israel, we're going to weaponize. Don't push us. And by pushing us means don't target our nuclear facilities. Remember, this is a nuclear program, it's about a quarter century old. It's about billions of dollars in investment," he added.
The Iranians view Israel as being dependent on the United States, according to Vatanka.
The question now...will Israel heed to calls from the Biden administration, which is urging Israel to take a 'proportionate' response? The US, and Iran's oil-rich Arab neighbors, are also advising Israel not to strike Iran's nuclear and oil facilities.
Just how Israel's government will react - especially in light of reports of tensions between Biden and Netanyahu surface, is yet to be determined. For the first time in two months, Biden and Netanyahu spoke on Wednesday in a phone conversation that focused on Israel’s plans to retaliate against Iran.
"I have no way of knowing what Netanyahu is going to do. They are going for the kill, if you will. They're trying to take out all their big enemies out there, what is Hamas, Hezbollah, and the mothership in Iran. Can Israel do this all on its own, alone?" asked Vatanka.
What capabilities does Hezbollah have left?
Iran's potential fears compounded by the fact that Iran's crown jewel of proxies, Hezbollah, has been significantly weakened by Israel. It's leader Hassan Nasrallah and anyone who tried to replace him were assassinated by Israel, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Last month, a series of pager and walkie-talkie explosions allegedly belonging to Hezbollah operatives set off simultaneously in Lebanon in an unprecedented attack of communications devices.
With Iran losing its biggest deterrence factor, Vatanka, said Iran can no longer hide, after orchestrating a multi-front campaign against Israeli - without sacrificing themselves.
He said Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, on one hand says he doesn't want war with Israel, but also refuses to give up and empowers groups like Hamas and Hezbollah to continue striking Israel, while calling for the destruction of the Jewish State.
"That is when you, as the cliche goes, want to fight Israel to the last Arab," said Vatanka.
But Israel is now poised to take the fight onto Iranian soil, telling the authorities in power that they can no longer conceal themselves behind "disposable" Arab proxies.
To find out more on where this is all headed as the Mideast spirals out of control, watch the full episode of Eye for Iran on YouTube, or listen on Castbox, Spotify, Apple or Amazon.
