Australia summons Iranian envoy over praise for Nasrallah

"The IDF [Israeli military] is preparing a response to the unprecedented and unlawful Iranian attack on Israeli civilians and Israel," the official, speaking anonymously due to lack of authorization to discuss the matter publicly, told AFP. However, he provided no further details regarding the nature or timing of the potential Israeli retaliation.

Israel’s newspaper Haaretz cited military sources confirming that the planned response would be "significant."

"The IDF is preparing for a significant strike in Iran following this week's missile attack from Tehran," the paper reported. Additionally, Haaretz noted that the military has not ruled out the possibility of further missile launches from Iran after Israel retaliates.

The Iranian missile strike on Tuesday involved around 180 missiles targeting Israel, marking Iran’s second direct assault on Israel in less than six months.

A former IDF spokesperson suggested that Israel’s response could include high-profile targets such as "regime symbols," including the residence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and key Iranian officials. Though these actions carry significant risks, they remain possible options, according to the retired Lt. Colonel Jonathan Conricus. In an episode of the podcast Eye for Iran this week, Conricus, now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), indicated that Israel is likely to retaliate strongly, but many strategic factors will influence the final decision.

Since Iran's attack, unconfirmed reports have surfaced suggesting that the potential successor to the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, killed last week, has been unreachable since Friday, following an Israeli airstrike that allegedly targeted him, according to a Lebanese security source on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Channel 12 has reported that Esmail Ghaani, the commander of the IRGC's Quds Force, was likely present and injured in the Israeli strike in southern Beirut aimed at Hashem Safieddine, head of Hezbollah's executive council. Although the hardline website Mehr initially dismissed these reports, the content has since been removed from their site.

Despite rising tensions, Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad expressed confidence on Saturday, stating he was "not worried" about a regional conflict, even after reports suggesting an imminent Israeli strike on Iran. Speaking to the ministry’s Shana news site, Paknejad said, "I am not worried about the crises that the enemies of the revolution are creating, and this trip is considered a normal work trip."

Paknejad made these remarks during a visit to Assaluyeh, a major hub for Iran’s exploitation of the world’s largest offshore gas field, which it shares with Qatar in the Persian Gulf.

US officials remain divided on the recommendations they offer Israel regarding potential targets in Iran. President Joe Biden, who initially ruled out endorsing strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, later extended this caution to include Iran’s oil infrastructure. This shift in stance has led analysts to speculate that the administration may be signaling a preference for targeting Iran's military bases, steering away from actions that could escalate into broader economic or environmental fallout.

“It appears that his unspoken intentions are more revealing than his words. Suppose oil or nuclear facilities are off-limits as potential targets. In that case, the logical focus will shift to military assets,” Kamran Matin, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at the University of Sussex, told Iran International TV.

“I believe the Biden administration may not only refrain from condemning but could implicitly endorse Israeli strikes on missile bases, production facilities, or even on the leadership and strongholds of the IRGC's Quds Force,” he added.

The Biden administration would prefer no major shock to oil prices four weeks before presidential elections, which could hurt the chances of Vice President Kamala Harris.

Reuters also reported that, according to numerous experts, including over half a dozen former military, intelligence, and diplomatic officials from the US and the Middle East, Israel is less likely to target the oil facilities that form the backbone of Iran's economy or its nuclear sites.

Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump, in an interview with Fox News on Friday, criticized President Biden’s stance, asserting that it was a mistake for the administration to signal that the United States would withhold support for an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program.

Khamenei, flanked by senior state and military officials at Tehran’s Mosalla, delivered two sermons—one in Persian and one in Arabic—before leading the Friday prayers.

The speech came amid expectations of an Israeli attack for Iran's large missile strike on Israel Tuesday.

Pro-establishment netizens many of whom used the hashtag#جمعه_نصر (Victory Friday) lauded the Leader for his ‘valor’ to appear in public amid Israeli danger to his life instead of hiding and “dignity”. The hashtag has also been used by Khamenei’s X account.

They also said that the “million-strong” congregation, which some of them claimed was the largest Shia Friday prayer congregation to date, would instill fear in Israel.

Based on its surface area, the venue is estimated to have a maximum capacity of 150,000 people.

“Our Leader humiliated Israel in every step today. He arrived half an hour before the sermons, delivered fiery sermons, gave messages to the people of Lebanon and Gaza, stood to prayer, and stayed after the prayer to do the afternoon prayer, too,” one of them tweeted.

“The biggest achievement of today’s Friday prayer was neutralization of the enemy’s extensive psychological warfare in various areas, both in Iran and outside it,” another pro-establishment netizen posted on X.

Establishment-aligned netizens, whose tweets far outnumbered those of the opposition, also referred to the large congregation’s attendance as a "bey’at" (pledge of allegiance) to the Leader.

Many opposition supporters, however, saw “extreme fear” in Khamenei’s face and described his voice as quivering in their posts. Many complained about his Arabic sermon which, they said, few among the congregation could understand and showed that the Arab people of Gaza and Lebanon were more important to him than Iranians.

This was not the first time Khamenei delivered the second sermon of his Friday prayers in Arabic but this time his Arabic sermon was markedly longer than his Persian sermon.

“Reassuring? You must tell this to families seeking justice [for loved ones killed in anti-government protests, the people on the street, the people whose backs are bent under the pressure of high costs of living, those who sell their kidneys to pay their rent …,” a resentful netizen retorted to reformist politician and former vice president Mohammad-Ali Abtahi who described Khamenei’s sermon as “reassuring” in a tweet.

Some claimed that it was a Khamenei double who delivered the sermons based on certain perceived linguistic irregularities in his speech. Others pointed out that the congregation had been mobilized from many other cities and claimed it included big numbers of Afghan immigrants.

“This Khamenei sermon was totally from a position of weakness. I am relieved that this system will be gone, sooner than you think,” a pro-monarchy dissident tweeted.

“He spoke the usual nonsense, [like] there will neither be war nor negotiation. Maybe he is saying Iran will not act hastily if Israel strikes, to lower the expectations of his mercenaries and the Shia youth,” another anti-Islamic Republic netizen contended in his tweet.

“The destructions in Lebanon shouldn’t concern Iran. Iranian people are themselves suffering from poverty, inflation, and high costs of living. Damn Gaza, Lebanon, Palestine, and others … I wish Israel had struck today and destroyed these [people] at the Friday prayers,” an anti-Islamic Republic netizen tweeted.

Another Iranian complained about Khamenei’s promise to help reconstruct Lebanon and Palestine although many in Iran's deprived areas such as Sistan -Baluchestan suffer from poverty. “This promise means taking [the food] from the mouths of the Iranian nation and putting it in the mouths of those in Gaza and Lebanon,” he posted on X.

“Khamenei, in fact, announced the end of the Axis of Resistance and told the people of the region to take care of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He has reached the end of his political era and will from now on be a leader who sits in a corner waiting for the angel of death who will make his account for his deeds,” another anti-Islamic Republic netizen posted on X.

Iranian citizens lack the freedom of speech enjoyed in democratic countries. Without independent courts, the government and its judiciary can interpret laws or issue regulations with minimal accountability, particularly on political or religious matters.

According to the Iranian judiciary’s Mizan News Agency, in recent days, certain social media accounts on platforms like X (formerly Twitter), Telegram, and other online activists have been involved in spreading such content. However, no concrete examples or clear definitions of "false news" or "creating fear" have been provided. Some individuals have faced legal action, while others have been warned following monitoring of online activities, Mizan reported.

The latest announcement came in the wake of Iran's missile attack on Israel on Tuesday night, after which the Revolutionary Guards warned that social media posts interpreted as "support for Israel" would be treated as a crime.

This is not unprecedented. The Islamic Republic's judiciary has previously pursued legal cases against citizens, journalists, and media outlets for commenting on events such as the death of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s chief, Ismail Haniyeh, the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, and the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel.

Although Khamenei declared a five-day period of national mourning for Nasrallah, videos obtained by Iran International revealed a contrasting public reaction. Some Iranians were seen celebrating his death, distributing pastries in the streets and raising toasts. Similar defiance appeared on social media, where users openly challenged the state’s narrative, underscoring a sharp divide between public sentiment and the official line.

Also, in the aftermath of Raisi's death, dozens were arrested for "insulting" officials and "disturbing public opinion" as many celebrated the helicopter crash that killed him and his companions. The government and state media portrayed Raisi and his companions as "martyrs," while trying to suppress any criticism after the crash amid a leadership crisis.

A notable example of narrative control and pressure on free expression occurred in August when blogger Hossein Shanbehzadeh was sentenced to 12 years in prison for posting a single dot in response to a tweet by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. His post, which received more likes than Khamenei’s tweet, resulted in his arrest weeks later.

The report states that in the first five months of the current Iranian fiscal year (starting March 21), 26% of the projected oil export revenues remain unachieved. By comparison, during the same period last year, half of the budgeted oil export revenues had not been met. However, the Supreme Audit Court did not provide figures in US dollars, and it is not clear what the monetary figure of the shortfall is.

Iran's customs data indicates that in the first five months of the current fiscal year, the country exported $20 billion worth of oil and petroleum products, 45% of which should be allocated to the government budget.

The 26% shortfall in the share of oil revenues allocated to the government budget during the first five months of the current fiscal year persists despite both the volume of oil exports and global prices exceeding the projections in the national budget.

The budget bill for this year anticipated daily exports of 1.35 million barrels of oil and condensates. Furthermore, Iran also exports 240,000 barrels of fuel oil daily, bringing the total daily oil exports to 1.6 million barrels.

The budget also set the price of oil at €65 ($70) per barrel.

Tanker-tracking data reveals that Iran exported at least 1.85 million barrels per day of crude oil, condensates, and petroleum products (including fuel oil) during this period. Additionally, OPEC reports show that the average price of Iranian oil exceeded $80 per barrel. Given these figures, Iran should not only have avoided a shortfall in oil revenues allocated to the budget but should have exceeded its projected revenues by one-third.

The reason for this deficit is attributed to Iran's substantial expenses in bypassing US sanctions, including offering discounts to Chinese buyers.

Additionally, part of Iran’s fuel oil exports is bartered for gasoline, as Iran has faced a gasoline shortage for the past two years.

Data from Kpler, a commodity data company, also shows that during the first five months of the current fiscal year, 50,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil were sent to Syria, a country that has been receiving free oil from Iran for the past decade.

Previously, the government's budget share of oil export revenues was 45.5%. However, with the new government led by Masoud Pezeshkian and a request for help from the supreme leader Ali Khamenei to cover the budget deficit, it was decided recently that the National Development Fund's share of oil export revenues would be halved to 20%, while the government’s share would increase to 65.5%.

Additionally, 14.5% of oil revenues are allocated to the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC).

Iran’s Oil Exports

According to the annual report of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Iran’s oil export revenues reached about $72 billion after the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA). However, following the US withdrawal from the agreement, this figure fell below $8 billion in 2020.

With the election of Joe Biden as US president, Iran’s oil export revenues have increased annually, surpassing $41 billion in 2023, without considering oil discounts and the costs of circumventing sanctions.

However, Iran's customs statistics reported oil export revenues of $35.87 billion for the previous Iranian year, revealing that over $5 billion was lost in the process of bypassing sanctions. Additionally, Iranian customs reported that oil export revenues for the first half of the current fiscal year totaled just over $23 billion. Yet, given the export of 1.85 million barrels per day and an average price of $80 per barrel, revenues should have exceeded $27.5 billion during that period.

OPEC statistics show that the total volume of Iran's crude oil, condensates, and petroleum products exports last year averaged about 1.73 million barrels per day, which is two and a half times higher than when Joe Biden took office.

This figure, before US sanctions imposed in 2018, was around 2.5 million barrels per day.

The plan, as announced earlier this week by the spokesman of Iran’s union of trade organizations (Chamber of Traders), obliges a large array of businesses to use only police-approved CCTV cameras from now and to register their cameras on a specially created portal called Saptam.

The information released so far reveals that these “police-approved” cameras must be installed under authorities’ supervision and linked to a cloud-based database.

Many in Iran are worried that the police intend to use the footage from security cameras for tighter control of businesses that serve women who refuse to abide by hijab laws in the name of ensuring the security of large and small businesses.

Security cameras, they say, will be used in the same way that traffic cameras have been to levy cash fines on owners of vehicles who allow passengers not to wear the hijab and women who drive “bare-headed”.

Some also suspect that police access to the footage can help security forces to suppress dissent at times of anti-government protests and unrest much more effectively.

The police began implementing the plan a few months ago by requiring businesses such as money exchange bureaus, goldsmiths, and jewelry shops to install approved security cameras to prevent theft and robberies. Some other businesses now required to use the police-approved cameras include retail shops, cafes and restaurants, hotels, and wedding venues.

Considering that authorities cannot monitor hundreds of thousands of small businesses in real-time, the argument that these cameras are meant to prevent theft seems more like an excuse than a feasible solution.

“It won’t be long before they make the installation of such security systems, or rather tools of state control, in all companies, for the sake of hijab enforcement,” Alireza, the director of a small company in Tehran told Iran International.

“My female staff don't have to wear the hijab in our offices, but this will have to change if we provide the police access to our cameras or they can shut us down,” he added.

The plan is to be implemented by Polis-e Amaken, a dedicated branch of the Police authorized to ensure all business venues comply with Islamic regulations and “values” such as hijab. They also ensure that men and women do not mingle beyond the ‘accepted norms’ and that alcohol is not sold or served in restaurants and event halls.

Wedding halls, for instance, must provide separate sections for men and women if they want to remove their hijab, sing, or dance. Bribing the police to close their eyes to what happens at such a venue has been quite common practice for decades.

According to the Saptam portal, businesses with “low-security requirements” such as dry cleaners must store the footage from their cameras on cloud for at least one month for police reference. Some other businesses such as cafes and restaurants must store their security footage for six months or longer. Whether live police access to the cameras is included or planned is not clear yet.

Experts say creating such a massive database for security cameras on the cloud requires extensive telecommunication infrastructures, huge investments, and vast security measures to prevent hackers from accessing the footage and private data of the users.

Some netizens took to social media after the announcement to voice their concerns over the new plan.

Mandatory registration of security cameras is not the final goal, Saeed Souzangar, an internet access activist, contended in a tweet Thursday. “The next step will be installing cameras in our houses. Businesses must resist such abominable plans instead of surrendering to it,” he wrote.

“This is like the Chinese model [of controlling citizens]. They will deprive people from all their social rights,” another netizen tweeted.