After UN visit, Iranian president signals imminent nuclear talks with EU leaders

The report indicates that foreign military aid has significantly enhanced the Houthis' capabilities, allowing them to play a more prominent role in regional conflicts.

Independent UN experts, who report annually to the UN Security Council, observed that Houthi fighters have received advanced tactical and technical training outside of Yemen.

Houthi operatives, using fake passports, have traveled to Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq to hone their military skills. These efforts have enabled the group to execute more complex operations, such as drone and missile strikes in key areas like the Red Sea.

On Tuesday, Reuters also reported that Iran has been assisting in organizing secret talks between Russia and Yemen’s Houthi militia. The aim is for Russia to supply the group with advanced anti-ship missiles. Two regional officials confirmed that representatives of the Houthis and Russia have met in Tehran at least twice this year to discuss these missile deliveries.

Despite a UN arms embargo on the Houthis since 2015, the report emphasized the significant amount of foreign assistance they continue to receive.

"Multiple testimonies from military experts, Yemeni officials, and individuals close to the Houthis indicate they lack the capability to develop and produce complex weapon systems independently," the UN experts wrote.

"The scale, nature, and extent of the military equipment and technology being transferred to the Houthis from outside sources, along with financial support and training, is unprecedented."

The report also noted that the weapons used by the Houthis resemble those produced by Iran or members of the so-called Axis of Resistance, a coalition of Tehran-backed organizations opposed to Israeli and US influence in the Middle East.

This transformation is largely attributed to the support of the IRGC-QF (Quds Force), Hezbollah, and Iraqi experts, who have provided the Houthis with training and material assistance.

The conflict in Yemen has become a central issue in the broader regional crisis. As the war in Gaza continues, the Houthis have intensified their blockade of the Red Sea, targeting commercial vessels under orders from Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

What began in the Red Sea has now spread to the Arabian Sea. These attacks have severely disrupted global shipping and led to the capture of several foreign sailors uninvolved in the Israel conflict.

In response, a US-led coalition of over 20 nations has mobilized to protect global trade routes and ensure the safety of maritime traffic in these crucial areas.

Iran’s influence in the region extends beyond Yemen. In early September, the Houthis launched a missile into central Israel for the first time, striking an area near Ben Gurion International Airport.

The attack, which the Houthis claimed involved a hypersonic missile, caused no injuries but marked a serious escalation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Israel would impose a "heavy price" on the Houthis.

Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in his first press conference since his election, denied that Tehran has supplied hypersonic missiles to the Houthis or short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, reiterating Iran’s position that it does not provide direct military support to the group.

In a meeting held on the sidelines of the United Nations Security Council in New York, Germany’s top diplomat called on Tehran to stop exporting ballistic missiles and drones.

In a statement on its X account, the German Foreign Ministry also noted that the discussions with Araghchi addressed "concerns about the Iranian nuclear program and Germans imprisoned in Iran."

The same day, Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong posted a picture of her meeting with Araghchi, saying she had raised concerns about “human rights and Iranian-Russian military cooperation.”

These diplomatic talks come as the US and the UK formally accused Iran earlier this month of supplying short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, leading to a fresh wave of sanctions on both Moscow and Tehran.

The European Union has similarly imposed sanctions on Iran over its missile transfers, in addition to those already in place due to Tehran's nuclear activities and human rights abuses.

“We call on Iran to immediately cease all support to Russia’s war against Ukraine and halt the development and transfer of its ballistic missiles,” France, Germany, and the UK said in a joint statement. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken echoed this sentiment, warning that Iran’s actions represented a "profound escalation" of the war.

Blinken revealed that dozens of Russian military personnel had been trained in Iran to operate the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, which has a range of up to 120 kilometers (75 miles).

"Russia has now received shipments of these ballistic missiles and will likely use them within weeks in Ukraine, against Ukrainians," Blinken said in early September, emphasizing that the supply of Iranian missiles allows Russia to target more distant locations while conserving its own arsenal for frontline engagements.

Iran has previously supplied Shahed drones, widely used by Russia in Ukraine, but has denied providing ballistic missiles.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani dismissed reports of missile transfers as "ugly propaganda" meant to distract from Western military aid to Israel.

A Russian cargo ship, suspected of carrying Iranian ballistic missiles intended for Moscow's war against Ukraine, was observed at a Russian port on the Caspian Sea about two weeks ago, according to satellite imagery shared with CNN.

Additionally, Russia has used Iranian Shahed drones, extensively in large-scale attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian targets, often in combination with cruise and ballistic missiles, which have overwhelmed Ukraine’s air defenses.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, meanwhile, denied the assertions, accusing Western nations of acting on "faulty intelligence and flawed logic."

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in his first press conference, also denied any involvement in missile deliveries to Russia.

Responding to a question from a Japanese journalist, Pezeshkian said, "As for the relationship between the Islamic Republic and Russia, I can say with certainty that since we took office, we have not provided them with anything."

While Pezeshkian expressed no knowledge of missile transfers under his predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi, or previous administrations, he affirmed, "We have and will continue to have relations with Russia."

This summer, Iran faced a 25% power deficit, severely limiting electricity supply to industries, including steel mills, which are heavily dependent on electrical power.

The sharp decline in steel production during the hot season is due to power shortages, a situation mirrored in winter months when gas shortages also lead to significant drops in production.

Iran's power and gas deficits have been worsening dramatically each year. Last summer, the country's electricity shortage reached 11,000 megawatts, rising to 20,000 megawatts this year. Additionally, Iran faced a gas deficit of 250 million cubic meters per day last winter, amounting to 25% of its winter demand.

The trend in declining production is undeniable. Data from the World Steel Association reveals that Iran's steel production in August dropped by 9.9% compared to the same month last year, 33% compared to August 2022, and a sharp 44% compared to August 2021.

Due to reduced operations and under-capacity production this summer, Iran’s crude steel factories have incurred an estimated opportunity cost of $1.5 billion, based on average global steel prices.

The sharp decline in crude steel production has also taken a toll on steel-dependent industries, particularly automotive manufacturing, which saw a 15% drop in production this summer. With a monthly capacity of 120,000 vehicles, the economic loss from this significant downturn in the automotive and parts sectors is substantial.

Additionally, a sharp drop in cement production this summer, also caused by power shortages, has doubled cement prices and halted construction projects across the country.

So far, economic and industrial authorities in the Islamic Republic have not released a report detailing the overall losses incurred by the country’s industries due to the significant electricity and gas shortages. However, some internal estimates, reflected in Iranian media, suggest that last year’s energy shortages cost the country about $8 billion.

Several organizations in Iran's power industry warned earlier this month of a 26,000 MW electricity deficit next summer, exceeding 30% of peak demand, compounded by natural gas shortages affecting both industries and households.

Ali Nikbakht, Chairman of the Iran Power Plants Association, has highlighted the aging and deterioration of a large portion of the country’s power plant infrastructure. He revealed in September that a major power plant has already ceased operations for repairs, noting, “The necessary spare parts should have been ordered two years ago, but they weren't, further worsening the electricity shortage.”

The steel industry plays a crucial role in Iran’s economy, contributing approximately $8 billion and representing 16% of the country’s total non-oil exports. As one of Iran’s most vital industrial sectors, it has been a rare success story over the past two decades, expanding from an annual production of 8 million tons to over 31 million tons.

Data from the World Steel Association indicates that Iran produced 19.8 million tons of crude steel in the first eight months of the current year, a significant portion of which was produced in spring—a season with fewer power and gas shortages.

Iran’s steel production grew rapidly from 2015 to 2019, a result of the nuclear agreement known as the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) with world powers, and the widespread inauguration of new steel plants across the country. However, in 2019, following the imposition of US sanctions on Iran's steel exports, the industry experienced a sharp decline.

Over 60% of Iran's steel exports go to Iraq and the UAE. Since 2021, Iran has managed to find ways to circumvent US sanctions on its metals industry, leading to a recovery in production and exports. However, the country's steel output has not yet returned to its 2019 peak levels.

While the specific names of the defendants and the exact criminal charges remain undisclosed, the grand jury reportedly approved the indictment in secret on Thursday afternoon. An official announcement from the Department of Justice is expected as early as Friday.

The Trump campaign disclosed in August that its internal communications had been compromised, accusing the Iranian government of orchestrating the cyberattack.

US government agencies, in statements last week, alleged that Iranian hackers had disseminated stolen materials from Trump’s campaign to individuals involved with Democratic President Joe Biden’s re-election effort. The broader allegation suggested Tehran's attempts to influence the upcoming US elections.

Biden, who withdrew from the 2024 race in late July, was succeeded by Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris now faces a tight race against Trump as the November 5th election draws near.

In August, the US had accused Iran of conducting cyber operations against both major presidential campaigns, allegations which Iran has denied. However, the US intelligence community suggests that Iran's cyber influence efforts have grown more sophisticated and emboldened as the 2024 election nears. This marks a shift from 2020, when Iranian hackers, while involved, were considered minor players in the broader field of foreign election interference.

"Iran is becoming increasingly bold in its attempts to stoke discord and erode trust in our democratic institutions," US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines warned in a statement issued in July.

Trump, who is seeking a second term in the White House, stated on Wednesday that Iran may have been behind recent assassination attempts against him. He added that any country targeting a US presidential candidate under his leadership would risk being "blown to smithereens."

Tensions between Trump and Iran have remained high since his administration ordered an airstrike in 2020 that killed Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani in Iraq, an event for which Iranian officials have long sought retribution.

Adding to these tensions, the US Department of Justice charged a Pakistani man in July with plotting to kill high-ranking US officials on behalf of Iran. Though the target was not named in the charging documents, reports have widely speculated that Trump was the intended victim.

In an interview with Iran International, Pahlavi addressed the Hezbollah-Israel conflict, saying, "The Islamic Republic’s adventurism and provocations have destabilized the Middle East and are the primary cause of the current situation."

Speaking on the sidelines of the National Union for Democracy in Iran (NUFDI) conference, Pahlavi emphasized that Iran’s interference in neighboring countries and its support for proxy groups have forced regional powers like Israel and Saudi Arabia into direct confrontation with Iran's rulers.

The conflict escalated in October 2023 when Israel launched a large-scale military operation in the Gaza Strip following a surprise Hamas invasion of its territory that killed over 1,000 civilians. In response, Iran-backed groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, joined the fight in support of Hamas. These ongoing clashes have further destabilized the region.

Pahlavi urged the international community to stop "investing in negotiations with a bankrupt regime" and instead support the Iranian people’s push for freedom. This call echoes demands from the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement, which gained momentum after the mass protests in 2022.

He argued that the fall of the Islamic Republic would eliminate the nuclear and terrorism threats in the Middle East, leading to fundamental change across the region.

Recent reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirm that Iran continues its high-enrichment uranium program, which could lead to the production of nuclear weapons. Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium now stands at 164.7 kilograms, a critical threshold since it can quickly be further enriched to 90%, the level required for nuclear arms.

At the NUFDI conference, Pahlavi unveiled the "Iran Prosperity Project," a plan designed by experts to guide Iran’s future after the fall of the Islamic Republic. He highlighted the stark economic contrast between Iran and South Korea, noting that before the 1979 revolution, Iran's per capita GDP was double that of South Korea, but it has since plummeted to one-seventh of South Korea's. "Iran should have become the South Korea of the Middle East, but instead, it has turned into the North Korea of the region," he said.

Prince Reza Pahlavi also warned that Iran is falling behind in the digital and AI revolutions, putting the country’s future at risk. He outlined the first phase of the "Iran Prosperity Project," which focuses on "financial and social stabilization" during the first 100 days after the fall of the Islamic Republic. The second phase will address political and legal stabilization, while the third phase will focus on long-term economic reconstruction and creating investment opportunities.

He called for the full participation of all citizens in the post-Islamic Republic economy, stressing the need to remove barriers to women’s participation in the workforce.