Iran International
The Iranian parliament's overwhelming vote of confidence in President Masoud Pezeshkian's cabinet ministers on Wednesday is likely to have lasting implications that could reshape part of the country's political landscape.
One significant outcome may be the marginalization of the ultraconservative Paydari Party, whose members had hoped to block at least four of Pezeshkian's ministerial nominees.
The "political purification" process, which began under former President Ebrahim Raisi, was intended to consolidate power within Paydari and other like-minded hardliners, aiming to transform the semi-democratic Islamic Republic into a more fundamentalist, fanatical, and totalitarian state. However, it appears that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has opted for a different strategy, steering the government through a carefully engineered political process that began with Pezeshkian's election in a lackluster contest.
Khamenei's 35-year track record as the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader suggests that he won't completely eliminate Paydari from Iran's volatile political scene. Instead, as he has done with reformists and various ultraconservative and conservative groups, Khamenei is likely to marginalize Paydari and keep it in reserve for a time when he might need the party again. This mirrors his approach with Iran's reformists, whom he sidelined for more than two decades before partially reviving them ahead of the presidential election.
Iranian journalist Sima Parvanehgohar has pointed out that Pezeshkian is the second Iranian Pesident who has had all of his cabinet ministers approved by the parliament. However, she also pointed out that former President Mohammad Khatami’s and Pezeshkian's first cabinets have nothing else in common other than getting their vote of confidence from predominantly conservative parliaments.
Like most other Iranian analysts, she also said that the vote of confidence for all of Pezeshkian's minister by a hardline conservative parliament made it clear that Iran watchers had over-estimated the Paydari Party's power as well as the capability of Pezeshkian's main political rival Saeed Jalili to form a strong opposition at the parliament.
Similarly, the voting outcome highlighted Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf's ability to organize and mobilize his supporters, as well as other conservatives in the Majles, to throw their weight behind Pezeshkian.
As political analyst Mostafa Najafi pointed out: "Ghalibaf is one of the few Iranian politicians who understands the rules of the political game in Iran and has the ability to adapt his approach to broader changes. This is how he transformed his major defeat in the presidential election into a significant political victory in the Majles on Wednesday—a victory likely to erase the memory of his previous setback."
Over the past week, Ghalibaf stood firm against Paydari members like Amir Hossein Sabeti, Hamid Rasai, and Malek Shariati, who tried their best to disrupt the discussions and block Pezeshkian's success. According to Parvanehgohar, the lawmakers' votes demonstrated that the Majles overwhelmingly rejected the ideology that Paydari and Jalili have been pushing forward.
Yet another implication of the votes for Pezeshkian's ministers was introducing transparency at the Majles. Pezeshkian revealed how Khamenei intervened in the process of nomination and accreditation of the cabinet ministers. Although the President has been widely criticized for his transparency, and some hardliners called on him to correct his behavior, the President's move could be a welcome first step to share information with the public.
The congratulatory message was posted by the official account of the Islamic Republic’s foreign ministry on X Saturday. Although not unprecedented, the message this year has angered pro-Russia ultra-hardliners in Iran. They accuse the ministry of “humiliating” the country and interpret the move as “self-abasing signals to the West”.
Similar congratulatory messages were sent to Ukraine in 2021 and 2022, but none was extended in 2023. Relations between Tehran and Kyiv have deteriorated significantly since the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) shot down a Ukrainian airliner in January 2020, killing all 176 people on board. The situation has further worsened due to Tehran's provision of hundreds of Shahed suicide drones to Moscow over the past two years, which have been extensively used to target civilian infrastructure and urban centers in Ukraine.
Pro-Russia ultra-hardliners who are already critical of the newly appointed foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, and accuse him of following a “diplomacy of indignity” as opposed to his predecessor’s “dignified diplomacy”, have strongly criticized what appears to be an overture to Ukraine on social media.
“Araghchi has revived the diplomacy of humiliation right away!! The congratulatory message on the Independence Day of Ukraine, despite this country’s hostility to Iran and when it is at war with the Russians on behalf of the West, has an important message to the West and Russia!!,” an angry ultra-hardliner took to X to complain.
Nevertheless, some hardliners on social media have defended the foreign ministry’s move and argued that Russia should be rebuked because, as reported by Azerbaijani media, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov supported the establishment of a Zangezur corridor during Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Baku.
Baku has been demanding a corridor southern Armenia to connect Azerbaijan’s proper with its Nakhchivan enclave separated by Armenian territor. Moscow and Baku want Russia to monitor and control the corridor, but Yerevan and Tehran are opposed to such a scheme, and argue that even if a transport route were to be established, Armenia should have control over it.
“Observance of Russia’s current behavior indicates that Moscow is probably anticipating some kind of control over Zangezur corridor and reviving its influence in the Caucasus which albeit will not be an easy task,” moderate conservative Entekhab news website which called it “Putin’s green light for geopolitical suffocation of Iran”.
Entekhab suggested that the Islamic Republic not delay launching diplomatic efforts to avoid the loss of its current “geopolitical advantage” threatened by the establishment of the transport corridor.
Iran has always opposed the establishment of the transport corridor which will eliminate Iran's direct access to Armenia, if the corridor is not controlled by Yerevan. In a meeting with Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan on July 30, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated Iran's opposition to Zangezur corridor which he said the Islamic Republic considers it “detrimental” to Armenia’s interests.
It is not clear if the congratulatory message to Ukraine was because of a rift between Tehran and Moscow, or simply an attempt to somewhat improve Islamic Republic's image under a new president.
In December 2023, Moscow also repeated its support for negotiations between Iran and the UAE over the three disputed Islands of Abu Musa, the Greater Tunb, and the Lesser Tunb in the Strait of Hormuz, infuriating the Islamic Republic. Tehran summoned the Russian envoy after Moscow signed a joint statement with Arab nations calling for negotiations.
Russia’s long delay in signing a 20-year comprehensive cooperation agreement with Iran despite the aid Iran has offered to Russia in its war against Ukraine has also irritated the Islamic Republic.