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According to three independent sources in Iran, who have chosen to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the topic, the Islamic Republic is advancing its secret nuclear weapons program by restructuring the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), retaining Mohammad Eslami as the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, and resuming tests to produce nuclear bomb detonators.

For years, US intelligence agencies consistently stated in their annual reports that Iran “isn’t currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device". However, in the Director of National Intelligence’s 2024 report, released in July, that phrase was omitted. Instead, the report stated that Iran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.”

The newly obtained information shows the Islamic Republic has intensified its efforts to complete the nuclear weapons production cycle, including high-level uranium enrichment, the production of nuclear detonation devices, and the development of missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Restructuring SPND.

Less than a month before Ebrahim Raisi's death, the Iranian Parliament passed a bill to formalize the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND) as an independent entity. Originally established in 2010 as a subsidiary of the Ministry of Defense, SPND was restructured under this new legislation, enacted just a week before Raisi's passing.
Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a prominent figure in Iran's military nuclear program, previously led SPND.

Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in November 2020 near Tehran, an act attributed to Mossad. The new law has granted SPND financial independence, exempting it from the oversight of the National Audit Office, essentially allowing it to operate without accountability for its budget.

The law also states that SPND will be governed according to a statute issued by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This restructuring of SPND is significant as it provides the organization with unique autonomy, allowing it to continue the legacy of Fakhrizadeh's work, particularly in producing nuclear detonation devices

SPND’s role in Iran’s nuclear program
On January 20, the Islamic Republic used a solid-fuel, three-stage satellite carrier named Qaem-100, developed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to launch a satellite called Sorayya into orbit. The move drew condemnation from Germany, Britain, and France, who issued a joint statement claiming that the Qaem-100 missile uses long-range ballistic missile technology.

Since the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has increased its uranium enrichment purity levels to 60% and has accumulated enough enriched uranium to potentially produce several nuclear bombs in a short period of time. The capability to build a nuclear weapon involves a complex cycle with three essential components: highly enriched uranium, the construction of a detonator, and the development of a delivery system capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.

Sources indicate that Tehran’s efforts to launch IRGC satellites are part of its plan to develop missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. SPND, on the other hand, continues to work on the production of another crucial component of Iran's nuclear program: the development of nuclear detonators. This project reportedly continued covertly under the guise of "Project 110" after the 2003 exposure of "Project Amad."

Documents reveal that after 2003, Tehran continued to work on neutron initiators for nuclear warheads at the Abadeh site, where previous detonator tests had been conducted. According to sources, SPND began a project named "Metfaz" at the Abadeh facility in 2011, involving one of the three key figures of Iran's current military nuclear program. The Islamic Republic had previously claimed that this program was halted.
A photo from 2018 shows that Tehran was testing the explosive detonators needed for nuclear warheads during the two years leading up to that date, a time when the JCPOA was still in effect.

Saeed Borji’s role
Saeed Borji, an explosives and metals expert from Malek Ashtar University, affiliated with the Ministry of Defense, has been instrumental in Tehran's nuclear weapons program. For a time, he operated under the guise of a company named Azar Afrouz Saeed Engineering Company, which claimed to manufacture spherical tanks for the petrochemical industry.

When Mossad stole Iran's nuclear documents in 2018, Tehran realized that the Abadeh site had been exposed and immediately demolished it, as satellite images confirm. According to exclusive information obtained by Iran International, Saeed Borji has recently resumed his activities under the cover of a company named Arvin Kimia Abzar, claiming to be involved in the petrochemical industry.

In September 2022, Borji transferred part of his shares in this company to the Center for the Growth of Advanced Defense Technology Units, affiliated with SPND. His partner, Akbar Motallebizadeh, who previously served as an advisor to Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and the head of SPND’s "Shahid Karimi" group, has also played a significant role in these activities.

Both Saeed Borji and Motallebizadeh, who are currently under US sanctions, are overseeing the development of nuclear detonators under the supervision of General Reza Mozaffarinia. Mozaffarinia, the former president of Malek Ashtar University and former deputy for industrial research at the Ministry of Defense, has been the successor to Mohsen Fakhrizadeh at SPND for the past three years. He has been a part of Iran's nuclear weapons program for many years.

An informed source within the Ministry of Defense told Iran International that the formation of the independent SPND organization with its own budget and without oversight is a crucial part of the Islamic Republic's nuclear weapons program.

Why did Pezeshkian keep Eslami in charge? 
The program has another key player. Earlier this week, Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s new president, retained Mohammad Eslami as the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. Eslami is a pivotal figure in Iran's nuclear weapons program who is very different from previous heads of the Atomic Energy Organization.

Between 1987 and 1989, Eslami managed a sensitive mission as the deputy head of development projects at the Defense Industries Organization. He led a team sent by the Islamic Republic to Dubai for a secret meeting with Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Pakistani nuclear scientist who later admitted to transferring nuclear technology and enrichment equipment to Iran.

In one of the nuclear documents stolen from Iran, Eslami’s role is prominently featured. As the head of the Defense Industries Training and Research Institute, he had overseen all aspects of Iran’s military nuclear program, including Project Amad, which was supervised by Fakhrizadeh.

Eslami continued to serve as the deputy for industrial and research affairs at the Ministry of Defense for two years after the JCPOA was signed. According to sources within the 4 / 4Ministry of Defense and SPND, Eslami's retention was ordered by Khamenei to maintain the cohesion of the new three-member team leading Iran's military nuclear program.

Shifting to nuclear weapons for deterrence
A Western diplomat told Iran International that Iran's suspicious nuclear activities have raised concerns among the United States, Israel, and European countries. Following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas' political bureau in Tehran said the Islamic Republic's deterrence policy, which relied heavily on proxy forces, has lost its effectiveness, something Khamenei and other government officials are fully aware of.

This reality might have driven the Islamic Republic to consider pursuing another form of deterrence. On the day Pezeshkian presented his ministerial picks to the Parliament, Iranian lawmaker Mohammad-Reza Sabbaghian told the open session, "What logic or law dictates that arrogant powers should have nuclear weapons, but Iran should not?"

He added, "We call on the Supreme National Security Council to review the new circumstances and recommend to the Supreme Leader that, considering dynamic Islamic jurisprudence, the path be cleared for the development of nuclear weapons."

This could be the final, and perhaps most dangerous, arrow in Khamenei's quiver.

"That's my expectation," President Joe Biden told reporters when asked if a truce between Israel and Hamas could stave off an Iranian assault, adding that while negotiations were "getting hard" he was "not giving up".

Reuters earlier in the day quoted unnamed Iranian officials as saying that Iran, along with its allies such as Hezbollah, is prepared to launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or if Israel is seen to be dragging out negotiations. However, the timeline for how long Iran would wait before responding remains unclear.

The assassination of Haniyeh, for which Iran blames Israel, has escalated tensions in the region. Although Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement, the US has deployed additional military assets to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses. Amid rising fears of a broader Middle East conflict following the killings of both Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has engaged in intense dialogue with Western countries and the United States to manage the situation.

Iran has been threatening to launch a harsh retaliation against Israel that could lead to a regional war, but after two weeks of keeping the world in suspense no attack has taken place. In April, Tehran fired more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel in first such strike for an attack on its embassy compound in Damascus.

The Reuters report might be an indication that Tehran is withholding any retaliation expecting to receive diplomatic concessions in return. Some Iranian media and political figures began showing a more pragmatic stance a few days after Haniyeh's killing indicating the futility of military escalation.

US officials have been in discussions with allies to convince Iran to de-escalate tensions, with ceasefire talks expected to begin on Thursday in Egypt or Qatar. Despite these diplomatic efforts, Iran’s mission to the UN issued a statement expressing hope that any response to Haniyeh’s killing would be timed to avoid harming potential ceasefire talks. However, Iran's foreign ministry dismissed calls for restraint as contradictory to international law principles.

Iran's mission to the UN in New York told Reuters on Tuesday that Tehran would not have a representative present on the sidelines of the Gaza ceasefire talks. Two sources earlier told Reuters Iran was considering sending a representative to the ceasefire talks. However, they said the representative would not directly attend the meetings but would engage in behind-the-scenes discussions "to maintain a line of diplomatic communication" with the US while negotiations proceed.

The prospect of Iranian retaliation has kept both the US and Israel on high alert, with White House spokesperson John Kirby acknowledging that a retaliatory attack could occur as soon as this week, potentially impacting the ceasefire negotiations.

The potential ceasefire in Gaza presents a crucial moment for Iran, which may use it as cover for a more limited, symbolic response. This could allow Iran to fulfill its pledge of retaliation while avoiding a full-scale war that could further destabilize the region. Iran, which has not traditionally been involved in Gaza peace talks, is now considering a more active role, possibly through behind-the-scenes involvement rather than direct participation in the ceasefire negotiations.

According to the Iranian sources, Hezbollah and other allies may also launch their own responses to the killings of Haniyeh and Shukr, with Iran ready to support these actions. The details of what such support could entail remain unspecified. However, any Iranian response is expected to be more effective than previous actions, such as the missile barrage launched by Iran on April 13 following the killing of Iranian generals in Syria. That attack, which targeted Israeli airbases, was largely intercepted and did not achieve significant damage.

The situation remains highly volatile, with Tehran's reaction closely tied to the progress of the Gaza ceasefire talks and the broader regional dynamics influenced by the actions of Hezbollah, Iraq's militias, and Yemen's Houthis against Israel.

Iran is facing its most severe heatwave in 50 years causing nationwide power outages as the government struggles with billions of dollars' worth of deficit. Industrial production faces a crisis, as manufacturers report that frequent power outages have often halted operations.

Now cryptocurrency miners are apparently rubbing salt into the wounds of Iran's electricity network, according to the CEO of Iran’s state electricity company Tavanir.

"Opportunistic individuals have been exploiting subsidized electricity and public networks to mine cryptocurrencies without proper authorization. This unauthorized mining has led to an abnormal surge in electricity consumption, causing significant disruptions and problems within the country's power grid," said Mostafa Rajabi Mashhadi.

In response to the growing issue, Iranian authorities have initiated a crackdown on illegal miners. To encourage public cooperation, officials say a reward has been introduced.

"A bounty of one million toman (approximately $20) will be awarded to individuals who report every single unauthorized cryptocurrency mining equipment," Rajabi said.

Cryptocurrencies are created through a process known as mining, where powerful computers compete with each other to solve complex mathematical problems. The process is highly energy-intensive, often relying on electricity generated by fossil fuels, which are abundant in Iran.

"So far, more than 230,000 illegal cryptocurrency mining devices with a power consumption capacity of 800 to 900 megawatts have been discovered. Their electricity consumption is equivalent to that of the Markazi Province," Rajabi noted. "Providing this amount of electricity would require the construction of a 1,300-megawatt power plant."

In recent years, Iranian authorities have regularly announced the discovery of illegal cryptocurrency mining machines in different parts of the country. Many of these operations were based in public locations such as schools and mosques that receive free or heavily-subsidized electricity.

In 2022, the state’s Intelligence Ministry claimed they blocked over 9,000 accounts belonging to 454 individuals used for illegal or undeclared exchanges of currency and digital currency. Based on the exchange rate during that period, the relevant trades amounted to 600,000 billion rials or approximately $2 billion.

As experts have often said, the Iranian government has a self-inflicted “muddled relationship with crypto-currencies”, which have served to obscure various forms of trade, aiding in evading sanctions, while simultaneously presenting avenues for illicit activities.

Reports in Iranian media suggest that large-scale crypto mining has been taking place by influential or well-connected networks, as well as some Chinese companies that are using cheap and subsidized electricity in mining farms they set up in Iran. This could have been permitted only by Iran's intelligence services and the Revolutionary Guard.

On Monday, the leaders of France, Germany, and the UK issued a joint statement urging Iran and its allies to exercise restraint and avoid actions that could further inflame regional tensions or undermine efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza amid the war and facilitate the release of the remaining more than 100 hostages held by Iran-backed Hamas.

Nasser Kanaani, the spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, asserted on Tuesday that the “apathy” of Western nations has enabled Israel to perpetrate "a myriad of international crimes, including genocide and war crimes," all while remaining "unpunished" referring to the Gaza war.

The latest statement warned Tehran and its network of regional militias that “They will bear responsibility for actions that jeopardize this opportunity for peace and stability.” Meanwhile, Iran-backed Hamas is threatening to boycott the latest round of ceasefire talks amid Iran's looming attack.

Also in a call on Monday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to avoid attacking Israel, emphasizing that war serves no one's interests.

Pezeshkian reiterated Iran's right to retaliate, under pressure to publicly maintain the Supreme Leader's position, even though behind the scenes he too worries for the impact such an escalation would have inside Iran and has implored Ali Khamenei to rethink the operation.

Iran's President acknowledged that war is never in anyone's interest, yet affirmed the inherent right of nations to "punitive responses against an aggressor," according to the official news agency, IRNA.

In parallel, on Tuesday, Israel's Army Radio reported that Israel has recently conveyed to the US and several European nations that any direct aggression from Tehran would prompt an Israeli strike on Iranian territory.

The report, though unsourced, indicated that Israel underscored its determination to retaliate against Iran, even if no Israeli casualties result.

It is almost two weeks since Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran. In April, it was also two weeks before Iran undertook its first direct attack on Israel following an alleged Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Syria.

Two IRGC commanders were killed along with several other senior figures, leading to a barrage of over 350 drones, rockets and missiles fired towards Israel. Israel and a US-led coalition intercepted the majority of the onslaught.

On Tuesday, Asghar Abbasgholizadeh, the commander of the Ashura Headquarters of the IRGC said, "On the surface, it seems too late for a response and revenge, but the enemy endures significant pressure by waiting. We are awaiting the command of the Supreme Leader, whether for patience and perseverance or retaliation."

Reuters reported on Tuesday that a potential ceasefire agreement in Gaza, emerging from anticipated talks this week, would deter Iran from directly retaliating against Israel for the assassination of Hamas's political leader.

Citing senior Iranian security officials, Reuters wrote that if the Gaza negotiations falter or if Iran perceives Israel as stalling, Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, is prepared to launch a direct attack. The sources did not specify how long Iran would wait for the talks to progress before taking action.

However, while it remains unclear if Hamas will attend the talks amid demands that Israel holds fire while they continue, a demand that Israel will not comply with, global powers remain keen to avert a crisis.

“Our drones have become the stuff of legend, their renown echoing across the globe, making them a must-see for every nation—alongside, naturally, our missiles,” Ali Shadmani, Deputy Coordinator of Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, told IRNA on the sidelines of the exhibition.

Iran’s Ambassador to Moscow, Kazem Jalali, who attended the exhibition, also lauded Tehran’s defense achievements in an interview with the Iranian state news agency.

He remarked that officials from numerous nations “envy” Iran’s advancements when visiting its pavilion, underscoring that “progress in the defense and military fields is not mere rhetoric but a proud reality.”

Jalali further praised the strong ties between Tehran and Moscow, countering claims by “those who seek to demonize countries like Russia and Iran as the true war-mongers.”

In spite of denials of supporting Russia's war in Ukraine, he said that Iran's “political, economic, cultural, and particularly defense and military relations with Russia are not directed against any nation.”

The very entity present at the exhibition—Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which plays a pivotal role in coordinating Iran's military production—was sanctioned by the EU in May for precisely this reason: supporting Russia's war on Ukraine.

Since mid-2022, Iran has supplied Russia with hundreds of Shahed suicide drones, which have been extensively employed in targeting civilian infrastructure and urban centers across Ukraine. In response, NATO has urged Tehran to cease its military cooperation with Moscow in addition to multiple nations such as the US and Britain levying sanctions on Russia for its support of Russia.

Last week, a report from Reuters indicated that dozens of Russian military personnel are currently being trained in Iran to operate the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system.

It cited two European intelligence sources which warned of an imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided missiles to Russia.

Unlike the Shahed drones, which carry a relatively small payload of explosives at around 45 kilograms and are more vulnerable to interception due to their slower speed, the Fath-360 missiles represent a far more potent threat.

Iran's UN representative dismissed the Reuters report, refuting the claims that Iran is preparing to supply hundreds of missiles to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

The International Military-Technical Forum "Army-2024" appeared to draw limited international participation, a reflection of Russia's growing isolation amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Over the past two years, Western sanctions have increasingly targeted entities and individuals worldwide, intensifying efforts to isolate Moscow on the global stage.

According to reports from Russian state media outlet Sputnik, four nations—Belarus, Iran, India, and China—have exclusively organized national exhibitions and individual stands representing defense industry enterprises.