Iran unveils Tuba Plan, its latest to enforce mandatory hijab

Khorasan Daily, a traditionally conservative newspaper distinct from hardliners, argued that while a missile response was appropriate in April when Iran retaliated against Israel’s air strike on its embassy compound in Damascus, the nature of this recent attack is different. The paper suggested that Iran’s proxies should now focus on launching attacks in Tel Aviv to create insecurity, and that the ‘Resistance Front’ should move away from relying solely on missile deterrence.

What's even more intriguing is the newspaper's stance that any response to Israel should not be launched from Iranian territory.

Although few government-controlled media outlets or authorized commentators inside Iran have acknowledged that Tehran’s April attack failed to inflict any damage on Israel, the Iranian public is generally well aware of this fact. Online, jokes frequently mock the IRGC’s missiles and their exaggerated claims. Some have even nicknamed the missiles “flying water heaters,” humorously suggesting they need frequent welding before use.

Arguing that Iran’s missile strategy cannot offer good answers any longer, Khorasan newspaper said, "The region and the Axis of Resistance are now obligated to deliver an appropriate response to the Israeli regime.” The newspaper immediately added that a response at this time must be prioritized, “but with several considerations: first, it should not involve missile or drone operations; second, it should not be carried out from Iranian soil."

It's difficult to determine whether the newspaper was expressing its own opinion or publishing the article under the direction of state authorities or a particular political faction. However, the call for Iran to avoid direct involvement, especially while the top leadership advocates for a response, is noteworthy.

This sentiment is reflected in overall Iranian public opinion, as seen in social media posts: Why should Iran continue to pursue a costly confrontation with Israel and potentially the United States? Many also view a potential war as a threat to the regime's very survival—a possibility that has not gone unnoticed by the Islamic Republic leaders.

Khorasan Daily also argued that Iran’s missile and drone attack in April was successful in demonstrating that Iranian weapons could reach Israel. However, the newspaper suggested that repeating the same operation would not yield additional benefits. Instead, it urged the leaders of Iran’s proxy groups to adopt new tactics and strategies to harm Israel.

The suggestion to make Tel Aviv unsafe without relying on Iranian missiles may hint at terrorist-style operations, similar to those frequently used by Palestinian groups in the past, though with little strategic success. For those in Iran, including regime insiders, who recognize the untenable costs of a serious war, the focus is elsewhere. Many Iranians argue that as long as high tensions with Israel persist, Tehran's hopes of re-starting negotiations with the United States remain dim, forcing the country to continue bearing the heavy burden of sanctions.

Rasaei, who comes from the marginalized Kurdish and Yarsan minorities in Iran, was sentenced to death by a Revolutionary Court on trumped-up charges related to the killing of an IRGC agent on November 18, 2022, and his death sentence was upheld by the Supreme Court in December 2023.

In late 2022, while the Islamic Republic’s security forces were in the throes of their violent crackdown on unprecedented protests, news spread that a senior IRGC intelligence official had reportedly been stabbed to death. In response to Nader Bayrami's killing in Kermanshah Province, authorities arbitrarily detained dozens of protesters in retaliation.

Bayrami was reportedly killed during a gathering to honor Seyed Khalil Alinejad — an influential Kurdish and Yarsan figure believed to have been killed by security agents. Originating in 14th-century Iran, Yarsan is one of the Middle East's oldest faiths, with over one million followers in the country. The Islamic Republic refuses to recognize Yarsan as a legitimate faith, labeling it a "false cult" and regularly persecuting its followers.

Rasaei had received a call from state security agents before the gathering to get a commitment that he would not engage in protests. He attended the ceremony anyway, holding up a photo of his cousin Khairullah Haqjoyan, who was in custody at the time.

One of Rasaei's friends, who was also in attendance, reported that the crowd suddenly began chanting anti-regime slogans like "Death to the child-killing government" and "Woman, Life, Freedom." Authorities quickly began beating people with batons. After a gunshot was heard, security forces released tear gas to disperse the crowd.

Bayrami was giving a warning to a woman refusing to wear the hijab, when a group of people confronted him and eventually began beating him.

Days later, authorities in Kermanshah singled out Rasaei, blaming him for the alleged crime.

Exclusive interviews with eyewitnesses to the killing of the IRGC official and sources close to Rasaei’s family cast complete doubt on the regime’s narrative.

According to sources, Rasaei was not involved in the altercation that led to the death of the IRGC official and was ultimately forced to confess to Bayrami's murder under extreme torture.

Amnesty International announced in February 2024 that his death sentence was issued after an “unfair trial” based on “forced confessions.”

Amnesty International noted that during interrogations Rasaei was subjected to torture and other ill-treatment, including electric shocks and severe beatings to compel him to self-incriminating “confessions”.

The Dadban legal group, which monitors the legal proceedings of imprisoned protesters and political prisoners in Iran, also declared on social media that the death sentence against Rasaei is unlawful.

They noted that the court selectively accepted testimony from certain defendants while disregarding evidence that could have exonerated Rasaei. Despite the prosecutor's report highlighting flaws in the case, the judges persisted in issuing a guilty verdict.

Furthermore, the group of legal experts said, the court ignored the opinions of forensic experts regarding the cause of death and the weapon involved.

Dadban emphasized the influence of powerful institutions in Rasaei's case, suggesting that the verdict was predetermined despite numerous contradictions and flaws.

According to information obtained by Iran International, it came in response to their participation in an overnight sit-in on July 24 to protest the death sentence of fellow inmate Pakhshan Azizi.

Among the protesters were Nobel Peace Laureate Narges Mohammadi and Iranian writer and human rights advocate Golrokh Iraee.

The prisoners further protested Azizi’s death sentence through a one-day hunger strike on July 30, part of the ongoing “No to Execution” campaign held every Tuesday.

Azizi, sentenced to death for "armed rebellion," is one of at least four women at risk of execution on similar charges.

Azizi was the second woman in July this year to be sentenced to death on charges of "armed rebellion."

Already this year, rights groups claim Iran has carried out 300 executions. Last year, over 850 were reported as an execution wave sweeps the country in a bid to quash dissent.

Iran's proxies, Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen were not players in the April 13 scenario where Iran launched explosive drones and fired missiles at Israel, ending years of a shadow war between the two nations.

That attack took place less than two weeks after a suspected Israeli strike in Syria that killed two commanders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) at an Iranian consular building.

The potential for a looming war has surfaced less than a week after Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Iran's capital. He was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran's newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed retaliation against Israel on Wednesday. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said there would be “blood vengeance” for Haniyeh's killing.

Brigadier General Zvika Haimovich believes Hezbollah will have a crucial role in Iran's retaliation this time around. The Israeli insider said he cannot foresee any situation other than Iran retaliating to last week's killing, which Tehran blamed on Israel.

Israel hasn’t confirmed or denied any involvement.

Haimovich told Iran International there are still a lot questions that will determine whether there will be a full scale war.

The first question, he said, is will Iran strike central Israel like Tel Aviv or if it would be contained to the Northern part near the city of Haifa. The second question, he posed is will Tehran use accurate and precise missiles or will it resort to simple statistic weapons? And the third, according to the former Commander, will Iran use massive salvos, which is the release all at once of rockets.

"Everybody is under pressure, mainly the civilian, the military forces that are on high alert and full readiness around the border. The Army, the Navy, the Air Force, as well. We are waiting. Waiting for, what? This is the million dollar question," said Haimovich, who during his tenure the Iron Dome system became operational.

As people in the region await, there's uncertainty around when Iran would act, and just how far it might go. Haimovich said the 'imminent' attack could happen in less than 48 hours or in the coming days.

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris met with the national security team in the White House Situation Room Monday afternoon.

The United States has not observed any specific movements in Iran so far that would indicate potential attacks on Israel in the coming hours, Sky News Arabia reported citing a Pentagon spokesperson.

The US has vowed to respond after several American personnel were hurt in a rocket attack that hit Ain al-Assad airbase in Iraq. The IRGC-affiliated Sabereen News earlier said Iran-backed militants were behind the attack, although no group officially claimed to responsibility.

According to Bloomberg, which cited sources close to the issue, G7 members have reached out to Iran to minimize its retaliation to prevent an even more destructive regional conflict.

Just how will Israel respond if Iran retaliates is all dependent on how Tehran conducts its strike and the nature of it, said the former top Israeli Commander.

In an exclusive interview with Iran International, former CIA director and US CENTCOM Commander David Petraeus said Iran and Israel would try to avoid a full-blown war for fear of the destruction it could bring on both sides.

“I think [the Iranians] have to respond,” Petraeus told Iran International's Marzia Hussaini, “this is an enormous blow to Iran's honor… It's a huge intelligence failure and… a security failure. So, they have to respond. But I don't think that Iran wants to get into a real direct back and forth war with Israel… And frankly, I don't think Israel wants to get in a real full-on war with Hezbollah or with Iran," he said.

Haimovich said Israel's retaliatory attack in April carried a strong message to the Iranian government, but he said it may not have been 'enough.' The strike against Iran’s sophisticated radar system in Isfahan just a few days after Tehran launched more than 300 drone and missile attacks on Israel, showed that Iran's defense capabilities could not match Israel’s military might, he said.

"After the Israeli response in April, the Iranian regime, they understood exactly what the Israeli capabilities is," he said.

As the world watches to see what unfolds, the former IDF commander Brigadier General Zvika Haimovich said Israel's strategic goals involve bringing the hostages home first and the war against Hamas, so any greater regional war would have to factor the state's short and long term game plan.

"It's a very complicated. I think that in the short term, we need to finish the multi-front war that we are dealing with. It's more than seven different fronts" said the Brigadier General, referring to a multi-front war with Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran.

Engaging in war with Iran, could potentially shift focus away towards a wider regional conflict .

"In the long term, I think we need to focus on the Iranian nuclear, wielding vision and capabilities, and build a strong and stable coalition lead by the United States of America and also the Arab Sunni states against Iran," he said.

The cold war between the two countries heated up a few more degrees last week, when Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. Iranian officials, including the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, promised a harsh response that many believe would happen sooner rather than later.

“I think [the Iranians] have to respond,” Petraeus told Iran International's Marzia Hussaini, “this is an enormous blow to Iran's honor… It's a huge intelligence failure and… a security failure. So, they have to respond. But I don't think that Iran wants to get into a real direct back and forth war with Israel… And frankly, I don't think Israel wants to get in a real full-on war with Hezbollah or with Iran… I don't think they want to get into this with each other, because the damage to both sides would be very, very substantial.”

Governments in the region and beyond have intensified their diplomatic efforts in anticipation of Iran’s attack that they fear could spiral the cycle of retaliations out of control and drag them into yet another war in the Middle East. Little is known of the scale and the nature of Iran’s promised ‘revenge’ at this stage, but many fear that it could be more serious than the last retaliatory attack in April.

“There's a whole menu,” General Petraeus said on the potential targets of an Iranian operation. “I'm sure they're looking at everything from trying to hit a military site…all the way up to hitting critical infrastructure or a major port or something like that. If that actually was to succeed, Israel would have to respond in a very massive way, not unlike the way that they responded to the Houthi drone attack… and they did enormous damage to the port of Hodeidah in Yemen.”

The current round of escalation began last Wednesday when Haniyeh was assassinated while in Tehran for the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Fingers were immediately pointed at Israel, which has held to its customary silence on such matters in the face of the almost universal belief that the Israeli secret services were behind the assassination.

“My sense is that the Israeli intelligence services, once again, have demonstrated how thoroughly they have penetrated different elements inside Iran,” Petraeus said about the operation that killed Haniyeh. “The most plausible explanation that I have heard of how this was carried out is that it was a result of a bomb planted months ago in the guest house where Haniyeh ultimately stayed… This is really quite extraordinary in a country that, in many respects, is viewed as a denied space to other intelligence services.”

Iranian officials were largely silent on the details of the attack that had killed Haniyeh. It was the New York Times that first reported the ‘bomb’ scenario. The assassination has put the IRGC in the spotlight, as many inside Iran, even among former officials, criticize the intelligence apparatus and call for “investigation” and “clear answers” over security lapses that allowed the assassination.

Iran’s posture would not change with Pezeshkian

Gen. Petraeus was asked by Hussaini about the outlook of the conflicts in the Middle East and whether or not Iran’s new administration under Pezeshkian might be able to change things.

“The really concerning aspects of Iran, the drones and missile that they're selling to Russia, support for these malign actors…and armed forces that they support in Gaza, Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, Shia militia in Iraq and in Syria, Houthis in Yemen, I don't think he has any control over that,” Petraeus said. “What he might be able to do, would be to reduce the role of the religious police in enforcing the hijab and that actually could provide some degree of relief for the people. It's possible he could carry out limited reforms of the economy.”

Pezeshkian has indeed promised to address Iran’s worsening economic situation. However, many experts inside Iran say it’s next to impossible to effect meaningful change without a drastic shift in Iran’s foreign and nuclear policy that would relieve the country’s economy of sanctions.

But General Petraeus was not too optimistic about a breakthrough in the nuclear front, warning that the next US administration may have little incentive to get softer with Iran.

‘Tougher’ policy under Trump or Harris

“I suspect that the policy gets much tougher after the election, regardless of who is elected,” the former CIA director said. “Donald Trump has said that he will reimpose some of the sanctions… I think that a Harris presidency will do the same. The truth is right now, in an election year, you're worried about the price of gasoline at the gas pump, and if they, for example, impose sanctions that reduce the ability of Iran to export 1.5 million barrels of oil and distillates, the price of gas is going to go up.”

Petraeus called Iran an “enemy” whose ultimate goal is to push the United States out of the Middle East. He warned, however, that that may not be a real option for any American administration.

“This continued effort of the US to leave the Middle East is like Michael Corleone trying to leave the mafia. You just keep getting sucked back in, and you might as well acknowledge that and determine what is the most effective and efficient force structure required to ensure our objectives in the region, and then maintain that, sustain it and stop scaring all the people in the region who are afraid that we're going to leave,” he said.