Firsthand reports from contributors inside Iran
The 2024 US presidential campaign is being closely followed in Iran, as many Iranians believe the outcome will directly impact their lives, especially with Donald Trump once again on the ballot.
Trump’s last tenure was highly 'eventful' for Iranians. The former president withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear deal, ordered the killing of Qasem Soleimani—arguably Iran’s second most powerful figure after the Supreme Leader — and imposed extensive oil sanctions that put unprecedented pressure on Iran’s economy.
It’s little surprise, then, that many seem to dread Trump’s potential second term. The annual inflation rate is already ‘back-breaking’, as we say in Persian, hovering above 40% for three years. Corruption is rampant. Another round of Trump’s “Maximum Pressure” would push millions off the cliff – or drag the country into war. And still, many say they’d like Trump to win. It is impossible to say how many, but it’s a sizable chunk of the population.
“Trump may be bad for us, but he’s worse for the regime,” says Farhad, an IT technician looking for a job. He was “kicked out” of work after he was arrested during the 2022 protests. “Trump is no Biden,” he says, “and his Iran advisers are not [former Iranian FM] Zarif chums. The pressure he’d exert could hasten the collapse of the regime.” What about ordinary Iranians, I ask, what if there’s a war, what would happen to their lives? “You call this a life?” he snaps back.
Farhad is 23. He’s visibly angry and has little to lose –materially at least. Those who do have something to lose, the ‘better-off’, see things differently.
“People have suffered enough these past years. We need the sanctions lifted, and that’s more likely with a Democratic administration. Trump has shown no goodwill towards Iran,” says Arash, an engineering student who actively campaigned for Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. “Iran cannot prosper with anti-Americanism. I voted for Pezeshkian because he seems less aggressive and might be able to negotiate a deal with the US and attract the foreign investment our country desperately needs.”
That may very well be wishful thinking, given what US officials have said on record and the fact that Iran’s foreign policy is dictated by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, not the president. Still, many Iranians share Arash’s hope for a miracle. However, a Trump victory this November seems much more likely. This prospect terrifies Arash as much as it thrills Farhad.
And then there’s Farkhondeh, a 29-year-old journalist who avidly follows US politics. She believes both the fear and hope that Trump would put more pressure on Iran may be exaggerated, if not entirely misplaced. “I think Trump is as likely to enter negotiations with Iran as [Kamala] Harris,” Farkhondeh says. “Trump’s record is not that of a warmonger. He’s a businessman. I think he wouldn't hesitate to talk to Khamenei if the latter was willing. That said, I don’t think any good for ordinary Iranians would come out of such a negotiation. Both sides would be more than happy to sell us out for their own interests.”
Curiously, almost everybody I talked to focused on Trump. There are no polls on this, but it seems rather clear that most Iranians believe the former US president would win again. Neither in social networks nor among my acquaintances have I seen anyone who sees Harris defeating Trump. This could be a result of Trump’s aggressive demeanor, which makes his opponent appear weak, or it could be because he’s a former president. But it’s also because Harris is a woman.
Sex or gender may be less of an issue in the US, but it remains significant in Iran, where no woman has ever passed the vetting process to enter a presidential race. The highest position a woman has reached in the Islamic Republic is Minister of Health—and that only once. Strangely, many view this as a ‘capability’ issue rather than a direct result of fanatical religious orthodoxy.
“America and Iran may differ socially, but I think being a woman will work against a candidate even there.” Sima, a 40-year-old woman who works at a publishing house said. She regularly posts about women's rights on Instagram, but takes little interest in the US election, even though a woman is in the race. “I like Harris to win,” Sima says, “but it won’t make much difference to us here either way.” She believes the impact of US elections on Iran is “exaggerated” – and it benefits the government.
“Iranian officials fuel this notion by constantly referring to the US as the enemy,” Sima says. “America is a scapegoat for their incompetence and corruption. Many have bought this idea, thinking that either disaster or redemption awaits us if Trump wins. Both are misguided, in my view. We better focus on our own rulers and let the Americans worry about theirs.”
Several cabinet ministers of the outgoing Raisi administration and some of the aides of Parliament (Majles) Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf fiercely clashed throughout the week over the top position at the Iranian Parliament's Audit Office. This body plays a crucial role in distributing funds to well-connected individuals and organizations.
Among the candidates for the post were the Audit Office's current chairman Ahmad Reza Dastgheib, Raisi's Road Minister Mehrdad Bazrpash, his Minister of Economy Ehsan Khandouzi and his Planning and Budget Chief Davoud Manzour.
At the Majles session on July 24, the incumbent chairman, Dastgheib, was re-elected. Despite his close ties to the Raisi administration, he is considered a moderate politician compared to the other contestants.
From Ghalibaf's camp, Mohsen Pirhadi and two others had declared their candidacy for the post. Other conservative groups also put forward their own candidates. However, President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian did not name any candidates, as his key officials, who will likely be announced next week, still need to be vetted by the Majles.
The Audit Office is tasked with making sure that the country's annual budget is being spent in the right way and is distributed fairly among all the government bodies and tens of religious and state ideological organizations whose functions are not clearly defined. Meanwhile, it can conduct investigations on the spendings of al those organizations. This makes it a good leverage to distribute government funds and control rival organizations through its checks and balances.
Furthermore, the post has proven to be a good launching pad for higher state positions. Its former top officials have invariably risen to higher ministerial or vice president levels.
On the other hand, at least two top ultraconservative politicians—presidential candidate Saeed Jalili and fundamentalist commentator and vigilante leader Ali Akbar Raefipour—appear to be in significant trouble. They are under pressure to disclose the funding sources for Jalili's "shadow government" and Raefipour's "Masaf" organization. The former is a self-declared parallel cabinet, while the latter aims to send as many hardliners as possible to the Iranian parliament in March.
The Iranian Judiciary has indicted Masaf and Raefipour for tarnishing the image of Ghalibaf during the March 2024 parliamentary election when Masaf was not able to send more than a handful of new lawmakers to the Majles. Rumors on social media and reports in newspapers point fingers at Ghalibaf as the man behind the indictments for Raefipour, two journalists and a whistleblower who made disclosures about mishandling of funds by Ghalibaf and other cases involving his family members.
In a detailed report on Tuesday, the Khabar Online website questioned the non-transparent funding and expenditures of Jalili's shadow government. The report quoted over two dozen politicians who criticized Jalili and his so-called "rival government." They argued that, despite the unclear objectives of this "government," its existence violates political norms, as shadow governments are typically formed by political parties with well-defined platforms.
Khabar Online further charged that Jalili's shadow government has no charter or articles of association, and its members are not known. Others have called on Jalili to clarify his source of funding, and the names of those who control the shadow government's bank accounts out of which hefty sums have been paid for his unsuccessful election campaign. They further charged that Jalili's shadow government is an illegal entity.
Jalili has remained silent, offering no explanation to clarify the opaque situation of his "government."