The Supreme Ideologue Among Iran's Presidential Candidates
Amidst a crowded field of 80 candidates for the upcoming state-controlled presidential election in Iran, one name continually stands out: Saeed Jalili.
Amidst a crowded field of 80 candidates for the upcoming state-controlled presidential election in Iran, one name continually stands out: Saeed Jalili.
The state-monitored Rouydad24 news outlet suggests that while his path to victory is complex, certain elements within Iran's political landscape could favor his potential to win the presidency.
Jalili, an ultraconservative close ally of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, belongs to the Principalist faction in Iranian politics, which emphasizes the principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Having run as a presidential candidate in the past, one of Jalili's official campaign slogans was “Great Jihad for Iran’s Leap Forward.”
He has held significant diplomatic and security roles within the Iranian government, serving as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council from 2007 to 2013 and currently as a member of the Expediency Discernment Council.
Khamenei, who many experts assert virtually selected Raisi in 2021 despite the facade of elections, has maintained a favorable relationship with Jalili for many years.
Pointing to his inflexibility as Iran’s nuclear negotiator between 2007 and 2013, Rouydad24 notes that Jalili’s resistance to making concessions and his rigid approach resulted in multiple UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions against Iran. These resulted in international economic sanctions that began to unravel the relative stability of Iran's oil-dependent economy.
During his tenure as deputy foreign minister, several European diplomats described Jalili to Reuters as someone who strongly and unwaveringly expressed his views. One diplomat even remarked that Jalili "specialized in monologue" rather than engaging in debate.
His approach often frustrated diplomats, with then-Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns recounting an instance where Jalili engaged in nearly 40 minutes of philosophical discourse during a meeting, avoiding direct answers and complicating the negotiation process.
Yet, this firm stance on nuclear negotiations has shaped the perception of him as a figure who does not easily bend to Western pressures. It’s likely that certain factions, particularly hardline and conservative groups, may support him for his ideological purity and rigid approach to negotiations.
Rouydad24’s analysis of Jalili suggests that his resistance amid nuclear talks may have been part of a broader strategy by the regime to develop Iran's nuclear capabilities – while buying time.
Be that as it may, Jalili’s diplomatic style led some experts to conclude that he would not be a suitable candidate, if the regime wants to advance the state of its current foreign policy and improve relations with the West.
His main rival for the presidency may be Ali Larijani, a conservative and former parliamentary speaker. Some say the stage is set for a diplomatic dichotomy reminiscent of the 2013 election, where their contrasting approaches were already evident.
In 2022, according to some accounts, Jalili confronted Larijani over nuclear negotiations during a special meeting of the Expediency Council. Jalili reportedly proposed that Iran withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, a suggestion opposed by Larijani and others.
Rouydad24 analysis points out that in Iran's foreign policy, the true power lies with higher-level authorities who make the final decisions. This could be a reference to the Supreme Leader. The President and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs act as executors of these decisions. Despite this clear hierarchy, different administrations have managed to influence the decision-making process.
It’s unclear whether Jalili, a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war and former member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, would shift his stance on reaching a truce with Western powers.
Known for his strong “nationalistic” views and deep belief in the Islamic Republic’s moral and strategic success against perceived American aggression, Jalili has always taken a hardline approach. His track record suggests that as President, he would continue to emphasize resistance and minimal concessions, casting doubt on any potential move towards diplomatic compromise with the West.
It’s more likely that Khamenei will prefer to maintain the status quo, positioning Jalili as a convenient successor to Raisi.
"Iranians are grappling with unprecedented challenges as their currency faces massive devaluation, ranking among the world's least valuable, despite the nation's abundant natural resources, such as gas and oil," said the top religious leader of Iran’s largely Sunni Baluch population during his Friday prayer sermons in Zahedan, the provincial capital of Sistan-Baluchestan.
The statement comes amid upcoming snap presidential elections, called following the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. Mohammad Mokhber has since assumed the role of acting president.
The outspoken cleric emphasized the nation's desire for freedom and women's demand for equal rights, pointing to the failure of both "reformist" and conservative factions to fulfill these aspirations.
“Despite their promises, the previous administrations failed to deliver. Reformists also failed to bring about a meritocracy system,” he said. “We talked to the fundamentalists [conservatives] about national and regional problems, but they didn't show any real commitment to solving them.”
In his critique of past administrations, Abdolhamid highlighted their constrained authority, asserting that "affairs are overseen from elsewhere," likely referring to Supreme Leader Khamenei's ultimate control over decisions, and raised concerns regarding the state's transparency and accountability.
“The previous administration [under Hassan Rouhani] pledged to appoint 10 Sunni ambassadors, having received nominations from us for these positions. However, the Foreign Minister said that decision-making powers were not solely within their jurisdiction, and other institutions are involved in the decision-making,” Abdolhamid said.
Khamenei and his supporters have largely hesitated to acknowledge the economic strain on the country.
Pointing to the "weight of responsibilities" inherent in the role of president, the outspoken cleric questioned the candidates, asking if they have considered strategies to address the pressing issues facing the country, issues that have contributed to a rise in suicides.
Abdolhamid's views seem to align with many critics who consider the Iranian presidency to be more of a symbolic post. With significant decisions made at Khamenei's headquarters.
The incoming president, set to be elected by the end of June, faces the challenge of addressing escalating economic woes exacerbated by ongoing oil export and banking restrictions due to international sanctions. These sanctions primarily stem from Iran's advancing nuclear program and financial support for terrorist groups, like Hamas and Hezbollah.
The Guardian Council's approved presidential candidates, to be announced next week, will each have an allocated time to air their promotional campaigns on state TV starting June 12 until June 26.
The presidential debates will also be broadcast live.
The IRIB’s election headquarters’ warning, issued alongside guidelines for candidate ads on Thursday, prohibited content that could “sow doubt,” “undermine the Islamic Republic's achievements,” or “erode public trust in the electoral process.”
The US and EU sanctioned IRIB in 2013, and 2022 for being a "critical tool of the Iranian government's mass suppression and censorship campaign against its people.”
An opinion survey by the Netherlands-based Gamaan Institute last year collected information from 38,445 people inside Iran about their views on media, revealing that only about 21 percent of the respondents followed the developments about Iran from IRIB.
Criticism of the current administration, particularly under Ebrahim Raisi, whose death last month triggered the snap election, will be closely scrutinized, with any perceived negative portrayal risking exclusion from national media coverage.
The directive came amid broader restrictions on media content ahead of elections, warning the candidates to refrain from defamation and actions detrimental to national unity and participation.
Iran's Press Supervisory Board also warned that violators would be punished with 74 lashes if found guilty.
According to instructions published on Wednesday, disseminating material that promotes "the boycott of elections and lower participation" and "organizing unauthorized protests, strikes, or sit-ins" constitutes a crime.
Iran's Minister of Intelligence also stated that his agency is closely monitoring the behavior of presidential candidates and their supporters, warning that those promoting "subversive" narratives will be prosecuted.
The warnings follow the Supreme Leader's address on Monday, in which he urged competitors to avoid slander and refrain from smearing each other.
These cautions are issued amid a backdrop where several candidates, among them Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Mostafa Pour Mohammadi, are linked to cases of corruption and human rights violations, where the electoral debates may provide an opportunity for candidates to expose each other.
Ghalibaf, the conservative parliament speaker and former mayor of Tehran, was embroiled in multiple financial scandals involving his immediate aides. Several of his associates, who were also former IRGC officers, were tried and convicted in cases involving approximately $5 billion.
The Iranian politician Pour Mohammadi, who served as interior minister and justice minister in two different administrations, was on the "Death Commission" responsible for the execution of thousands of Iranian political prisoners during the 1980s.
Despite many warnings, the usual protocol—where candidates launch their campaigns and engage in verbal sparring after receiving approval from the Guardian Council, a 12-member non-elected oversight body—has been disrupted, with confrontations starting prematurely this time.
A high-profile clash erupted between Ghalibaf and Vahid Haghanian, a prominent figure in the Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran and a presidential candidate, drawing significant attention. Media affiliated with the IRGC criticized Haghanian and supported Ghalibaf.