Contributor
The Lebanese group Hezbollah escalated its ongoing conflict with Israel into a potential full-scale war on Monday by launching drones and missiles into Israeli territory, causing massive fires in the north.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Wednesday morning that the Jewish state is "prepared for an extremely powerful action in the north" in response to Hezbollah's attacks.
Estimates by Israel suggest that Hezbollah has amassed an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles that are aimed at Israel from southern Lebanon.
At an address at the northern Israeli military base Kiryat Shmona on Wednesday, Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated his pledge made at the beginning of the war with Hamas to restore security in both the southern and northern regions of Israel.
"Yesterday the ground burned here and I am pleased that you have extinguished it, but the ground also burned in Lebanon,” the Prime Minister said.
Netanyahu further underlined Israel's readiness to respond forcefully to any threats and its commitment to ensuring security in the north, saying: “Whoever thinks he can hurt us and we will respond by sitting on our hands is making a big mistake. We are prepared for very intense action in the north. One way or another, we will restore security to the north.”
Israel last engaged in a bloody, high-intensity war with Hezbollah in 2006 following the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah. To end the conflict, the UN Security Council imposed Resolution 1701 on Lebanon, mandating the disarmament of Hezbollah. Neither the UNSC nor Lebanon enforced this resolution.
During a visit on Tuesday to Kiryat Shmona, a northern Israeli city affected by the fires, Israel’s far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, declared, “They are burning here, we need to burn all of Hezbollah’s strongholds and destroy them. War!”
Since Hezbollah allied with Hamas in the ongoing conflict against Israel, which began with Hamas's October 7 invasion, approximately 80,000 Israelis have been displaced from the northern regions. During the invasion, Hamas killed nearly 1,200 people and kidnapped over 250 in a coordinated terrorist attack.
Expert Urges New Strategy Against Hezbollah
A prominent Middle East expert suggests that the Western public, particularly in the US, lacks a clear understanding of the situation on Israel's northern front, including the key players involved, the reasons for the conflict, and the potential outcomes.
Walid Phares, an American academic expert who has advised US presidential candidates, maintains that Hezbollah operates as part of the Iranian state’s military strategy.
He says both Hezbollah and the regime in Tehran are working together closely to plan and execute attacks on Israel.
Noting that the "government in Lebanon is controlled by Hezbollah," Phares added that this latest escalation is the Islamic Republic waging war against Israel through its proxy, Hezbollah.
Phares identified three possible approaches to dealing with the situation in Lebanon. He noted that the two traditional strategies typically considered by policymakers and military planners involve military action.
The first option entails Israel taking against Hezbollah in Lebanon in a “comprehensive way.”
“They will go in and hit Hezbollah’s headquarters, capabilities, resources, and rockets. That is the traditional Israel strategy against Hezbollah: Threaten them with heavy losses and also threaten the government sitting in Beirut that there will be retaliation against their own interests,” Phares said.
Phares explained that, as part of this strategy by Israel, there is a specific threat to destroy Lebanon's infrastructure.
The Lebanon expert argues the issue with the first option is that Israel's threats are only aimed at Hezbollah and, by extension, the Iranian regime.
Furthermore, the first option, Phares says, will not bring tangible change because Israel is unlikely to launch a ground operation against Hezbollah due to opposition from the Israeli public.
The second option would be to continue the status quo war.
“Hezbollah attacks and Israel counter-attacks. This will lead to a long war which will be costly to both sides because Hezbollah’s decision is controlled by Tehran and Tehran does not care about the destruction in Lebanon,” Phares said.
According to Phares, the third option, which has not been seriously examined or embraced by the US or Israel, is to support the Lebanese in revolting against Hezbollah within Lebanon.
”That is the third option that we have been talking about for the last 20 years,” he said.
The preconditions for the third option involve both Israel and the US shifting their strategies to collaborate with the anti-Hezbollah Lebanese population in dislodging Hezbollah, which is backed by the Iranian regime.
Phares emphasized that this option requires full support from the American administration to aid anti-Hezbollah forces within Lebanon.
He also noted that the US has previously supported various opposition movements in the region, such as those against the Islamic State.
