Iran has continued internet crackdowns in the wake of the death of President Ebrahim Raisi as the country is now plunged into a leadership crisis with many Iranians celebrating the death openly online.
Monitoring data from Cloudflare reveals that Iran’s Ministry of Communications imposed restrictions at 19:10 local time on May 19, shortly after the news of the helicopter crash that killed the president and his delegation was reported.
Writing on X, Iranian cybersecurity expert Nariman Gharib compared the current state of internet access in Iran to previous periods during Iran's protests when internet access was at its most restricted. He said the situation has worsened since Friday amid a domestic leadership crisis in which snap elections have been called for June 28.
Criticism of the crackdown has come from all corners, including Iran-based conservative website Tabnak, which described Iran's internet over the past week as “almost intranet”.
Internet crackdowns have become a standard tool for the government to quash dissent over the years. Assessments by Iran-based digital rights group Filterbaan suggest that the ongoing disruptions result from government policies aimed at deliberately not developing external bandwidth in proportion to user expansion, along with a policy to repeatedly increase internet prices.
It is believed to be part of a broader strategy, Filterbaan says, to establish a comprehensive national information network that forces users to rely on domestic platforms while restricting access to VPNs which have been widely used to bypass bans on the likes of global social media platforms in Iran.
As citizens' living conditions continue to worsen, pro-government Iranian media have intensified their praise for the late President Ebrahim Raisi's "successes" following his death in a helicopter crash.
During Ebrahim Raisi's presidency, Iran's economic indicators indeed changed; some appear positive, but there are many caveats and uncertainties even within these positive figures.
A precise economic evaluation of Raisi's government is complicated due to a lack of transparency. However, a combination of various economic indicators provides a general picture of the situation.
One key indicator is the level of government budget realization.
Raisi's predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, had instructed the Central Bank to stop publishing state budget realization reports since 2018, citing the need to keep government information confidential due to US sanctions.
However, the Central Bank recently released details of the annual budgets for 2017-2020, revealing a 30% annual deficit. Despite this, the Central Bank continues to withhold reports on the state of budget realization during Raisi's administration.
Given the Central Bank’s reports indicating a doubling of state debts to the banking system during Raisi’s presidency, it appears that the government’s budget deficit level has been worsened.
People's livelihood
The statistics of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO, show that the consumption of red meat by Iranians declined to 732 thousand tons in 2023, 32% less than in 2020. Raisi assumed the presidency in August 2021.
Even official statistics show that the daily calorie intake per capita in Iran has declined by 22% to 2,100 calories since the 2010s, with the situation worsening year by year. This is a direct reflection of rising inflation, starting in 2018, when the United States withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal and imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and international banking. Annual inflation soared to 40%, and by some accounts, it is around 50% in 2024.
The highest jump in prices occurred in the food sector, when in 2023, prices registered an increase of between 60-100% for essential food items compared to the previous year.
The pro-government media are attempting to present Raisi’s success by highlighting the 5% GDP growth in 2023, but the details of the Statistic Center’s report show that the only reason of last year’s relatively higher GDP growth was a 21.8% oil production increase and a 16.7% growth in state expenses expenditures (based on 2010 fixed prices).
None of the mentioned GDP drivers have had a positive effect on people's livelihoods, nor are they sustainable. First, the growth was insufficient in generating sufficient revenues for the government that had to continue printing money. Second
The International Monetary Fund has put Iran’s GDP growth at 4.7% for 2023, but predicted only 3.3% growth for 2024 and 3.1% growth for the following year.
Unemployment and inflation
Pro-government media also touts a decrease in the unemployment rate, from about 12% in 2020 to 8.1% in April 2024. However, detailed reports from the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) reveal that this drop is primarily due to a decline in the number of unemployed individuals actively seeking work. In simple terms, the only reason for the decreasing unemployment rate is that about 3.5 million Iranians have become discouraged from seeking employment and have exited the labor force. Consequently, the labor force participation rate has declined from 44.5% to 41% in recent years, artificially pushing the unemployment rate down.
It should also be noted that the government considers one hour of work per week as employment and this leads to a much lower unemployment rate than the prevailing reality.
Regarding inflation, the statistics provided by Iran's own institutions are contradictory. While SCI reported last year's inflation rate at 41%, the Central Bank of Iran recently released a report calculating "payment of debt and dowry" based on a 52.3% inflation rate in 2023. This discrepancy suggests that Iran's actual inflation rate is significantly higher than what official figures indicate.
A Berlin-based think tank slammed for hosting a former Iranian ambassador accused of terror ties, has deleted the public announcement of the event after backlash.
The Körber Foundation, founded by a former Nazi, had hosted Princeton academic Hossein Mousavian at a May breakfast event, but after a tide of criticism, the think tank deleted its X post.
Mousavian, who served as Tehran's ambassador to Germany from 1990 to 1997, is accused by activists of having reportedly played a crucial role in the assassinations of at least 24 Iranian dissidents in Europe during the 1990s.
One of the notable incidents was an attack on Berlin restaurant in the 1990s. Four Iranians were assassinated at the Mykonos restaurant by two masked gunmen in a plot sanctioned by the clerical regime’s then-president Rafasanjani, according to a Berlin court.
Lawdan Bazargan who oversees the organization, Alliance Against Islamic Regime of Iran Apologists (AAIRIA), wrote on X, “Deleting your tweet, @KoerberIP does not solve the issue. The fact still remains that you invited Seyed Hossein Mousavian, former ambassador of a brutal gender-apartheid Islamic Regime, who has the blood of many Iranians on his hands, and bragged about it.
Bazargan is leading a campaign to secure Mousavian’s dismissal from his academic job at Princeton University and after having taken a screenshot of the now-deleted Körber Foundation X post, exposed the think tank for hosting the controversial figure linked to the highest echelons of Iran's government.
Körber embedded four photographs of people at the breakfast, including pictures from Mousavian.
Shortly before Körber scrubbed its X post of the Mousavian event, Bazargan wrote “Shame on you @KoerberIP for meeting with Mousavian who at least has the blood of 24 Iranians on his hand. Fire Mousavian.”
The British-American actress and opponent of the clerical government in Tehran, Nazanin Boniadi, posted on X for her over 591,000 followers about the Körber event: “Mousavian was the Islamic Republic’s ambassador to Germany from 1990-97, during which time beloved Iranian dissident Fereydoun Farrokhzad was murdered in Bonn, and Kurdish-Iranian opposition leaders were assassinated in Berlin. Stop platforming him.”
When asked why Körber deleted the X post and for a copy of Mousavian’s talk, Julian Claaßen, a spokesman for Körber, told Iran International, “Dr. Hossein Mousavian was invited to background discussions at Körber-Stiftung in Berlin and Hamburg. Since its inception, Körber-Stiftung has been committed to dialogue, in line with the motto of our founder Kurt A. Körber ‘Talking to each other, not about each other’. Our aim is to explore the scope for political action and to contribute to international understanding, especially in times of acute crisis and conflict.”
Claaßen said discussions take place within Chatham House Rules, meaning the content and statements of individual participants are not disclosed. However, he added, “The discussions last Thursday and Friday centred on Iran's role in regional politics and domestic political developments in the Islamic Republic," claiming that he was also interviewed by staff for the in-house magazine, ‘The Berlin Pulse Express Edition’, which will be published next week.
When pressed about Mousavian’s alleged role in assassinations, his endorsement of the fatwa to murder the British writer Salman Rushdie and his support of the German-designated terror organizations, Hamas and Hezbollah, Claaßen said “we do not comment on political statements made by our guests.” The Körber spokesman also refused to comment on Mousavian’s alleged antisemitism, Mousavian having compared Israel with Nazi Germany on X.
According to the German government’s definition of antisemitism---based on the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance concept of modern Jew-hatred—Mousavian expressed an antisemitic comparison.
Bazargan told Iran International that “Körber must apologize and change its policy toward the Iranian regime, and start supporting the Woman-Life-Freedom movement led by the youth in Iran. Several Iranians who were shot with pellet bullets and lost their eyes or hands in the recent uprising in Iran are now living in Germany. Körber should invite them and amplify their stories to highlight the true impact of the regime's brutality.”
The think tank was founded by Kurt A. Körber, a member of the Nazi party who worked for Universelle-Werke J. C. Müller & Co. which advanced Hitler’s war goals.
According to the Köber Foundation website, “Up to 3,000 foreign and forced laborers were used for this purpose…He is actively involved in the company’s armaments production.”
Iran International reported in March that Dr. Narges Eskandari, the mayor of Frankfurt in Germany, and a former Iranian political prisoner, said “Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Iran's ambassador at the time, is considered one of the key masterminds behind the attack. He had prior knowledge of the assassination attempt, and evidence implicates the Iranian embassy in the attack. To date, there have been no consequences for Seyed Hossein Mousavian. “
Mousavian is a Middle East Security and Nuclear Policy Specialist in the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University where he has been employed since 2009.
In April, over 70 Iranian-Americans, including the Germany-based Parviz Dastmalchi, a survivor of the 1992 Mykonos terrorist attack in Berlin, demonstrated at Princeton against Mousavian. The pro-Iran regime academic lashed out at the dissidents on X for calling on Princeton to fire him.
Körber has hosted Mousavian frequently over the years, including in 2018 and 2017.
Mousavian declined to respond to numerous Iran International requests for comment.
Iran's exiled Crown Prince issued a call for British and Western governments to protect their citizens from “violence perpetrated by supporters of the Iranian regime" after the latest attack in London.
Iranians in the UK, demonstrating against a memorial service for the late president Ebrahim Raisi on Friday were targeted by possible Iranian state agents, resulting in injuries to four people, as reported by the Metropolitan Police who confirmed the arrest of one suspect.
Prince Reza Pahlavi said, "What happened in London on Friday must not happen again," the latest in a string of incidents against dissidents in the UK since 2022.
Journalist and political activist Masih Alinejad who has also been the target of Iranian death threats through government agents in the UK and US, said the British authorities must act against the "thugs of the Islamic Republic."
In a show of defiance, Iranians in the UK rallied the following day in front of Iran's embassy in London to protest the violence. Pahlavi said, "Your coming together at this short notice to defend our compatriots is commendable," Pahlavi stated.
In March, Iran International host Pouria Zeraati, was stabbed by unknown attackers outside his home in London, suspected to be Iranian agents. In November 2022, threats were made against two of the channel's London-based journalists before the offices were forced to close temporarily last year after UK security services, MI5, said it could no longer guarantee the safety of Iran International staff.
Saeed Jalili, Ali Khamenei's representative in the Supreme National Security Council, is set to run in the upcoming presidential election after having run in both 2013 and 2020, as Khamenei lines up his staunchest allies.
Jalili received a delegation of four representatives from Mashhad at his office to invite him to enter the presidential race as Khamenei ensures a line-up of hardliners in the upcoming elections in the wake of the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last week.
Jalili, who has held significant diplomatic and security roles within the Iranian government, served as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council from 2007 to 2013 and is currently a member of the Expediency Discernment Council.
Known for his hardline stance, Jalili was Iran's chief nuclear negotiator and has previously served as the deputy foreign minister for European and American Affairs. Despite his positions, his bids for presidency have yet to secure him the office, with a third-place finish in the 2013 elections and a withdrawal in favor of Ebrahim Raisi in the 2021 elections.
Jalili's return to the presidential race comes amidst whispers of political maneuvering, with some suggesting that recent shifts in leadership, including the rumors of assassination of Raisi by Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, might be clearing the way for new power alignments.
A hardline ballot of clerics and military figures are among the politicians who look set to stand for the June 28 snap elections, with candidates likely to include Parviz Fattah, a former IRGC officer and currently the head of the multi-billion-dollar economic empire controlled by Iran's Supreme Leader.
Also likely is Mehrdad Bazrpash, the current transport minister who was aboard one of the other helicopters flying with Raisi's doomed delegation, and Alireza Zakani, the current mayor of Tehran, who, like Jalil, dropped out of the 2021 presidential race to back favorite, Raisi.
Iranian media are widely speculating about the Guardian Council’s strategy for setting the stage for the election of Raisi’s successor in the upcoming June 28 elections. They suggest that three scenarios are likely to unfold.
This time, the Guardian Council has very little time for the usual machinations it is often accused of, as the law requires that a president be elected within 50 days. Unlike previous elections, there are currently no pieces on the board to arrange for the desired outcome.
The significance of which past approach the Council is likely to adopt regarding diversity of candidates is more important than which particular politicians are likely to run, moderate conservative Asr-e Iran news website wrote Sunday.
Some speculate that the Council may eliminate all candidates capable of mobilizing the electorate, including certain hardliners and ultra-hardliners, to ensure the victory of their most preferred candidate.
Another possible approach, according to media analysts, is allowing various hardliner and ultra-hardliner factions to compete relatively freely, which could result in an unpredictable outcome.
The last and least likely scenario is allowing all political groups within the establishment, including some from among the spectrum of reformists, to field their candidates and to ensure a high turnout.
The five-day period of registration is to begin on May 30 after which the Guardian Council has a week to vet candidates. So far, some controversial figures such as former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, once Khamenei’s favorite who fell from his favor during his second term, have implied they are ready to run. Ahmadinejad was barred from running in the past two elections.
The dilemma facing the Khamenei-appointed jurists of the Guardian Council is how to orchestrate the election so that the "desired" future president emerges from the ballot boxes while also ensuring "maximum participation" of the electorate, or at least a level of participation that does not call the legitimacy of the next president into question.
According to official figures, only 48 percent of the electorate went to the ballots in the presidential election of 2021 in which the arrangement of candidates, which included one low-profile reformist, Abdolnaser Hemmati, was meant to guarantee Raisi’s win.
Disqualified candidates included moderate former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, reformist former Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, and Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist lawmaker from East Azarbaijan Province who could potentially bring some reluctant voters to the ballots. Pezeshkian on Sunday again announced his candidacy.
Turnout was 73% in the 2017 election and over 72% in the 2013 election, both of which saw Hassan Rouhani winning with over 50% and 57% of the vote, respectively.
In an unprecedented move, 13 percent of eligible voters cast blank and void votes in 2021. This was higher than votes cast for the second runner up, Mohsen Rezaei, who got 11.8 percent of the vote against Raisi’s 62 percent.
Blank and void ballots were cast by those who did not find any of the four approved candidates to their liking or were coerced into voting. Lawyers, physicians and other health workers, for instance, are intimidated into voting by being threatened with loss of their licenses.
In 2017 and 2013 elections, blank and void ballots respectively made up just 2.9 and 3.39 percent of all votes. In both elections various factions within the political establishment had their own candidates.
Khamenei and the hardliners have not appeared overly concerned about voter turnout in the past three elections since 2020. Despite a consistent decline in turnout, they continue to describe each election as "epic."
Besides behind-the-scenes instructions, Khamenei has the power to overturn the Guardian Council’s decisions with so-called “state edicts”. He reinstated two reformist candidates disqualified by the Council, Mohsen Mehralizadeh and Mostafa Moeen, with such edicts in the controversial presidential elections of 2005 which brought hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power. He also reinstated Pezeshkian in the 2024 parliamentary elections.