Khamenei's biggest challenge is winning the nation's trust. Nearly nine out of ten social media comments about former President Ebrahim Raisi's death blame Khamenei or his political system for the loss.
This presents a dual challenge for Khamenei: first, regaining the trust of the general public, and second, reassuring political players, including his obedient supporters, that he values their well-being and contributions. His comments about Raisi were notably unappreciative, clearly stating that his absence would not change anything.
President Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash brought the Islamic Republic’s weaknesses to the fore. Hours after the incident, the government could not locate the crash site. Khamenei's government also seemed to lack a news dissemination and gatekeeping mechanism in place. The chaos in news dissemination about he helicopter crash alerted even regime insiders. Former presidential adviser and top security and intelligence expert Hesamoddin Ashna begged the core of the regime to conduct a serious investigation and not to rule out any possibility.
Hardline conservative member of the Iranian parliament, Mostafa Mirsalim said Raisi's loss was a catastrophe for the regime and called on Acting President Mohammad Mokhber to investigate all the flaws in the system that led to Raisi's death.
In the days after the incident, the only response by the government has been to bar the media from analyzing the possible reasons and scenarios that contributed to the death of the country's president, foreign minister and several other officials.
The next challenge is security. Even while the nation awaited news about the former President's fate, a gunman in Tehran killed three police officers, including two colonels. The IRGC's Telegram channel downplayed the incident, describing the gunman as "an evil man" and incorrectly stating that only one officer was a captain and the other two were non-commissioned officers. However, social media users pointed out, based on photos, that two of the victims were indeed colonels.
Another indication of security concerns was the widespread rumor in Tehran that Police Chief General Radan had been assassinated. A pro-government social media activist and former state TV producer urged the government to inform the public about the police chief's whereabouts and safety to restore a sense of security and reassurance.
Nothing has been done after three days.
Meanwhile, tight security measures around Khamenei during the funeral ceremony for Raisi was eye-catching. Many pointed that out on social media as bodyguards separated him even from the first row of Iranian dignitaries who are usually trusted insiders.
A more existential challenge facing Khamenei is the uncertainty that will most certainly lead to more economic problems for the people and the government. The issue of succession is one of the biggest reasons for the general uncertainty about what the future will bring. In the absence of a mechanism like choosing a crown prince in monarchies, no one can be sure that the succession will be smooth.
The suspicious death of Khomeini’s son, who was a serious contender to succeed the Islamic Republic's first supreme leader, clearly indicates that after the leader is dead there is no guarantee that his son would be taken care of by those who were loyal to him before his demise.
Meanwhile, in the short run, the June presidential election poses a threat to the coherence of the system, if not its strength. There are dozens of contestants who are uncertain of Khamenei's true support, with most believing he already knows who will succeed Raisi. Pundits suggest that the public is unlikely to welcome the election for this very reason.
Nonetheless, the rivalry among the contestants is already so fierce that it frightens the nation. Some hardliners accuse one of the most likely contenders, Mehrdad Bazrpash, of possibly being involved in a conspiracy to eliminate Raisi. Others, such as former President Ahmadinejad and former Majles Speaker Larijani, who have previously been disqualified, are almost certain that Khamenei is unlikely to forgive their past mistakes—Ahmadinejad for not being sufficiently obedient and Larijani for allegedly conspiring with Rouhani to share power in a post-Khamenei government.
Before his interment at Iran's largest Shiite shrine in Mashhad, the northeastern city of his birth later on Thursday, a funeral service was conducted in the eastern city of Birjand. There, thousands of supporters gathered to pay their respects and bid farewell to a president whose legacy will remain one of brutality.
While some attendees, such as state employees and those fulfilling their compulsory military service, are usually required to be present, the absence of a spontaneous outpouring of public grief, as seen on some previous occasions, was notable.
Unlike the vast gatherings that mourned the death of Revolutionary Guard General Qasem Soleimani in 2020, following his killing in a US drone strike in Baghdad, the attendance at these ceremonies was far from the same scale, the president associated with a failed economy and a period of intensified and ever more brutal oppression since coming to the role in 2021.
Already, media in Tehran is publishing reports and analysis on the upcoming presidential election in June. Names of possible candidates and predictions of who has a better chance circulate. However, everyone within the regime or among the public know that the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his loyalists largely control the electoral system.
Raisi himself was elected in a highly controlled vote, with all serious rivals barred from running against him, including former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani.
Three days of mourning ceremonies and politics
The initial procession commenced in Tabriz on Tuesday, following the helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border over the weekend which also killed the foreign minister and six others.
Raisi's remains were transported from Tabriz, the nearest major city to the remote crash site, to Tehran airport before proceeding to the city of Qom, a Shiite religious center. From there, the journey continued back to the capital, where his casket lay in repose at Tehran's Grand Mosalla Mosque.
Abdolreza Davari, a former confidant of ex-president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, shared on social media that he estimated the attendance of mourners at approximately 5% of the population in Tabriz, 9% of the population in Qom, and 12% in Tehran, the latter only considering those over the age of 15 in the city. But there are no independent estimates. These numbers means lress than one 1.5 million people. Many Iranians on social media argued that attendance was much lower, in thousands or a few tens of thousands.
On Wednesday, accompanied by his delegation, Raisi's body was transferred to Azadi Square from Tehran University, where the Supreme Leader led prayers. Subsequently, a ceremony ensued in the presence of "high-ranking foreign delegations."
However, three former presidents—Mohammad Khatami, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and Hassan Rouhani—were notably absent at Tehran's funeral. Despite sending messages of condolence for Raisi's death, they were not seen in photographs from the ceremony.
Khatami and Rouhani referred to Raisi as a "martyr" in their messages, having died during an official government trip, whereas Ahmadinejad, in alignment with the Supreme Leader, extended condolences without using the term "martyr."
In addition to refraining from labeling Raisi as a 'martyr,' analysts took notice of Khamenei's callous remarks regarding him and the country's future in the hours leading up to the announcement of Raisi's passing. "The Iranian people need not worry; there will be no disruptions in the country," Khamenei said with a cold demeanor. This reinforced the argument of critics who increasingly regard the Iranian presidency as more of a ceremonial post, with major decisions made in Khamenei's headquarters.
Leaders and officials from Iran’s allies and terror-affiliated groups were present at Wednesday's funeral ceremony in Tehran. Notably absent were Syrian President Bashar Assad and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The absence of Western democratic leaders and dignitaries underscored Iran’s isolation on the global stage. Many democracies worldwide have imposed sanctions on Iran for its military support of Russia in the Ukraine conflict, its backing of terror groups, its nuclear program, and its dismal human rights record.
Meanwhile, the ceremony was attended by controversial Iran-backed terror group figures such as Naim Qassem, deputy secretary general of Lebanese Hezbollah, and Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of Hamas.
