At UN Security Council, Iran Reiterates Warning Against Possible Israeli Response

The Islamic Republic has remained silent on the type of missiles used in the early Sunday morning attack, leaving the details shrouded in secrecy. However, by analyzing Israeli military reports and combining them with open-source intelligence, analysts suggest that one of the missiles might have been an Emad (Imad) missile. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson confirmed that only the fuel tank of the intercepted missile was recovered, as the warhead and engine were destroyed by the long-range Arrow air defense system.

According to the Israeli army, the recovered debris represents 70% of the original projectile's length. Analysis of released photographs and statements aligns with the specifications of Iran's Emad missile. The Emad, according to Iranian Revolutionary Guard-affiliated media, is a 15.5-meter ballistic missile. Ballistic missiles follow a curved trajectory, leveraging gravity to achieve extreme velocities. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) estimate the missile traveled over 1,500 kilometers from Iran to Israel in roughly 12 minutes, reaching a speed of approximately 7,500 km/h, or roughly Mach 6.

Named after Imad Mughniyeh, the second-in-command of Hezbollah who was killed in 2008, the missile is manufactured by the Iranian defence ministry and underwent its first test launch in 2015. Just a few months ago, the IRGC conducted a simulated military operation, demolishing the mock Palmachim Airbase in Israel using Emad missiles.

Which missiles did Iran deploy in its assault on Israel?

IRGC-affiliated media have revealed details about the variety of missiles used in the attack on Israel. This included ballistic missiles such as the Khorramshahr, Sejjil, Ghadr, and Emad, alongside cruise missiles like the Paveh and the hypersonic Fattah. However, inconsistencies arose within official Iranian channels. For example, one newspaper suggested that Iran held back from deploying the Fattah hypersonic missiles, potentially reserving more advanced weapons for a future counter-attack. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the IRGC Aerospace Forces, claimed on Thursday that the IRGC used its older models in the attack.

Setting the Scene: Exploring the Context

The Islamic Republic of Iran currently boasts the most extensive and varied ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. Iran's pursuit of ballistic missiles predates the Islamic revolution in 1979. However, it was during the Iran-Iraq War, fueled by animosity towards the West and their refusal to supply spare parts for Iran's dwindling air force after the monarchy's fall, that Tehran significantly ramped up its missile program.

Chronicles of Iran's Missile Campaign

• 1980S: During the eight-year war with Iraq, Tehran primarily deployed Soviet-made Scud B missiles.
• 1994-2001: Iran launched the Shahab-1, a domestically developed variant of the Scud B missile, with a range of 300 km (185 miles), targeting bases in Iraq used by the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), an Iranian dissident organisation.
• Major attack since 2017:

Since 2017, Iran has launched missiles towards other countries on at least twelve occasions. These attacks involved over 300 ballistic and cruise missiles primarily targeting regional Muslim-majority nations. Iraq, bordering Iran, bore the brunt of these attacks, while Israel received the highest number of missiles.

Many strikes were launched in retaliation for perceived provocations against Iran, but the targeted nations often remained silent. This silence likely stemmed from a lack of military capability or willingness to respond, as seen in Iraq and Syria. Notably, Pakistan stood out for its swift and decisive response to an Iranian missile attack.

What Comes Next?

In its attack on Israel, Iran launched more than 300 killer drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles on Israeli territory. Only four ballistic missiles successfully made it through the defences, with none of the cruise missiles or drones managing to do so, said Israel defence minister Yoav Gallant.

Now with the region in the brink of war, Israel stands at a crossroads. It faces the choice between a military strike on Iranian soil or diplomatic patience for future benefit. The absence of an attack may likely result in a false sense of victory for the Islamic Republic, while a military strike on Iranian soil could potentially drag the region into full-scale conflict. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic stands on edge, bracing for Israel's next move.

A 17-year-old girl said that when she was arrested in Tehran’s Daneshjoo Park, the officers treated her violently, pulling her hair and beating her right arm and thighs with a baton, in addition to making sexual insults.

Male officers in the morality police van that transported the arrested women to a detention center beat the women who refused to submit to arrest.

The young woman told Iran International that at the detention center, the officers made women unlock their mobile phones and to reveal their picture galleries and social media accounts to the brutal state security. She saw more than fifty women in custody, most of whom were in their early 20s or teens.

A 19-year-old girl told Iran International that she refused to unlock her phone for the plainclothes officers at the detention center, so they hit her stomach and genitals with an electric shocker, addressed her with sexual profanity and sexually insulted her family. She was forced to cooperate to avoid being taken to the security agencies.

Several hours after their arrest, both of these girls were released from the detention center after providing their details, home addresses, telephone numbers, and fingerprints and signatures on sheets that were written "did not respect the hijab."

Reports given to Iran International indicate that hundreds of women have been arrested throughout the country, including Tehran and Karaj, for disobeying the mandatory hijab since Saturday when a new policy called project Noor, came into place, allowing further oppression for women and girls amid nationwide hijab refusal.

An Iranian journalist and post-graduate student of political science, Dina Ghalibaf, 24, was arrested at her home in Tehran on Tuesday after describing in a tweet her recent encounter with the police.

On Monday, she sent out a series of tweets in which she described how police used a shocker and handcuffed her at the Sadeghieh metro station for not wearing the mandatory veil.

Shahed Alavi, an editor of the Iran International Newsdesk, states that the regime is concerned people may expand their power and overthrow the government should the country be vulnerable to an attack by Israel amid the two countries' shadow war which came to the fore on Saturday night when Iran launched a massive aerial bombardment towards the Jewish state.

“This is not the Iranian people’s war. The state does not have the nation on its side, yet the regime is trying to force legitimacy by instilling fear and inflicting violence,” he added.

“The government wishes to demonstrate that while they are weak in foreign policy, they still possess power in the domestic arena,” Alavi said.

"Yesterday, my daughter Aida was arrested by Tehran's moral security police for not wearing the mandatory hijab and is still in custody," the siblings’ mother Nasrin Shakarami wrote in an Instagram post.

Iranian authorities have recently escalated their violent crackdown on women for defying the country’s mandatory Islamic hijab laws, with reports of mass arrests across the country.

Some human rights activists argue that the regime is using the crisis and ‘state of war’ with Israel to suppress dissent – and that the country’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, enacted controversial measures during this time to avoid public backlash.

Nika was kidnapped and murdered by state security forces during unprecedented nationwide protests in Iran in September 2022, following the killing of 22-year-old Mahsa Jina Amini in custody of the so-called “morality police” in Tehran.

Just four days after Amini was killed, videos showed Nika setting fire to her hijab at a protest in Tehran. When Nika suddenly went missing, authorities refused to give the family any answers. After 10 days, authorities informed the family that Nika’s body had been found.

The authorities claimed that Nika had committed suicide. The teenager’s family has repeatedly denied these claims and stated that she was killed as a result of repeated blows to her head.

Subsequent reports indicated that Nika was raped by state security forces before they killed her. Since her murder, the Shakarami family has persistently been targeted with threats from authorities, and several members of the family were detained.

Last October, Aida Shakarami revealed that unidentified individuals had threatened her family while they visited Nika’s grave – telling them that Nasrin, the siblings’ mother, would face arrest.

Nika’s story and death at the hands of the regime turned her into one of the beloved icons of the movement for many Iranians.

Last year, Amnesty International reported that Iranian authorities are “waging a ruthless campaign of harassment and intimidation against the families of protesters and bystanders unlawfully killed by security forces during the “Woman Life Freedom” uprising to force them into staying silent…”.

US President Joe Biden also announced that G7 leaders were committed to acting together to increase economic pressure on Tehran.

Biden said the United States and its allies had helped Israel beat back the April 13 missile and drone strike and were now holding Iran accountable with the new sanctions and export controls.

"The sanctions target leaders and entities connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s Defense Ministry, and the Iranian government’s missile and drone program that enabled this brazen assault," Biden said in a statement.

"And our allies and partners have or will issue additional sanctions and measures to restrict Iran’s destabilizing military programs," Biden said.

Britain also announced sanctions on military figures and entities in a coordinated move with the United States. The sanctions, which include asset freezes and travel bans, target Iran's defense minister and other military figures and organizations including the Armed Forces General Staff and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy.

A US Treasury Department statement said the US measures targeted 16 individuals and two entities enabling Iran’s UAV production, including engine types that power Iran’s Shahed variant UAVs, which were used in the April 13 attack.

Treasury said it was also designating five companies in multiple jurisdictions providing component materials for steel production to Iran’s Khuzestan Steel Company (KSC), one of Iran’s largest steel producers, or purchasing KSC’s finished steel products.

Also targeted were three subsidiaries of Iranian automaker Bahman Group, which it said had materially supported Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The statement said the US Commerce Department was also imposing new controls to restrict Iran’s access to technologies, such as basic commercial grade microelectronics.

Tehran says it carried out the April 13 attack in retaliation for a presumed Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus which killed two generals and several others on April 1. Israel has said it will retaliate, while a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander said on Thursday Iran could review its "nuclear doctrine" following Israeli threats

Treasury said that concurrent with its action, Britain was imposing sanctions targeting several Iranian military organizations, individuals and entities involved in Iran’s UAV and ballistic missile industries.

Britain said these sanctions included the General Staff of the Armed Forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy, according to an official notice.

"We’re using Treasury’s economic tools to degrade and disrupt key aspects of Iran’s malign activity, including its UAV program and the revenue the regime generates to support its terrorism," U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in the statement.

"We will continue to deploy our sanctions authority to counter Iran with further actions in the days and weeks ahead."

The US statement came after finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven industrial democracies said after a meeting in Wednesday they would "ensure close coordination of any future measure to diminish Iran's ability to acquire, produce, or transfer weapons to support destabilizing regional activities."

European Union leaders also decided on Wednesday to step up sanctions against Iran after Tehran's attack on Israel raised concerns about a wider conflict in the Middle East.

Amir Ali Hajizadeh stated on Thursday that IRGC’s limited resources exceeded "the maximum capacity of both Hebrew and Western powers with minimal strength,” Tasnim, a news outlet affiliated with the IRGC, reported.

While Iran launched an unprecedented drone and missile barrage against Israel over the weekend, the effectiveness of the attack has been criticized and ridiculed online.

The attack, which was in retaliation for Israel's April 1 air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, was almost entirely intercepted by the Israeli Defense Forces and its allies.

The Iranian authorities attempted to silence all criticism, including that of journalists and citizens inside the country, within hours of the attack.

Several news outlets and journalists who were critical of the regime's portrayal of a powerful attack were arrested and prosecuted. The IRGC's Intelligence Unit and judiciary have also threatened to prosecute anyone who ridicules or criticizes the military establishment.

In spite of attempts by the regime to save face, researchers interviewed by the Washington Post about Iran's arsenal claim Iran "threw everything it had that could reach Israeli territory."

n his Thursday remarks, Hajizadeh named a few "powerful" missiles to boast that they were not used, like Sejjil-1. However, experts say they may no longer be produced as they are too costly. Additionally, Hajiazdeh claims that the Kheibar Shekan missile was not used, a claim the Washington Post analysts refute.