Sweden Continues Vigilance Over Detained Citizens In Iran

“This threat is about opening a broad front against the Zionist regime, which is probably the most dangerous of all fronts because it could geographically threaten all the cities of the occupied territories and could facilitate attacks against many of the most sensitive targets, including Tel Aviv and [Israel’s] nuclear facilities,” Iran's semi-official ISNA wrote.

According to the agency, following Israel’s attacks against Iran's consulate building in Damascus, Iraq’s Hezbollah voiced its readiness to provide "Jordanian resistance forces” with light and medium weapons, anti-armor weapons, advanced missiles, and millions of tons of explosives and ammunitions.

“Axis of resistance” or “resistance forces” are terms coined by the Iranian authorities to refer to Tehran’s proxies in the region, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq and Yemeni Houthis.

“The resistance is ready to take the necessary measures. The mere order of Hamas and Islamic Jihad is enough to block the land route to the occupied territories,” ISNA quoted Abu Ali al-Askari, head of security for Iraqi Hezbollah, as saying.

Though Tehran has avoided any direct military involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict, it has used its proxy groups such as Houthis and Hezbollah to attack Israeli and American targets in the region. However, there are concerns that the recent deadly Israeli air strike in Damascus and Iran’s possible response might lead to serious escalation in the Middle East.

On Monday, a precision Israel strike killed seven IRGC officers in Damascus, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the highest-ranking commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force (IRGC-QF) in Lebanon and Syria, and his deputy, Mohammadhadi Haji Rahimi.

Since then, Tehran’s officials have vowed revenge against Israel. In a message released Tuesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said, “The nefarious regime [of Israel] will be punished by our brave men. We will make them regret this crime and other ones like it, by God's will.”

In a statement issued on Saturday, the IRGC thanked the supporters of the government who participated in the funeral and burial ceremonies of those killed in the Israeli strike. “To the heroic and revolutionary nation of Iran, we assure you that your zealous children in the IRGC will, by the grace of God, fulfill the national demand in inflicting a regrettable punishment on the Zionist enemy and its supporters,” the statement read.

Meanwhile, Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran's Armed Forces, threatened the harshest possible response to Israel. However, he emphasized the Islamic Republic’s strategic approach towards recent developments, further adding that Tehran will determine the time and type of the retaliatory operation itself.

Considering such statements from Bagheri and some other Iranian officials, analysts contend that the regime's longstanding strategy of refraining from direct engagement with Israel will persist.

Earlier in the day, ultra-conservative lawmaker Hossein Jalali remarked that Iranian officials do not consider it expedient to implicate the country in an open war with Israel. “We will respond to Israel on a proxy basis through our groups,” he maintained.

According to the lawmaker, the headquarters of the resistance front is in Iran but its armies are in different countries.

Jalali’s remarks are a rare acknowledgement of direct ties between the Iranian regime and militant groups in the region. Tehran has always claimed these groups make their own decisions and act independently. In an interview with CNN on October 31, 2023, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian insisted that no group takes orders from Tehran, and that Iran has no proxies in the region.

Nonetheless, some observers believe that the positions expressed by Iranian officials in recent days suggest that Tehran may be looking to open new fronts in the region via its proxies in an attempt to counter Israel. This is where serious threats would put Jordan's stability in question.

In a report released on Wednesday, Ayelet Savyon, director of Iran Media Studies project at Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), warned that Tehran has a “great plan” which intends to “bring down the Jordanian regime, attack Israel from the East, and thwart the Western-Sunni normalization project.”

Savyon added that in the past days, pro-Palestinian demonstrations have ramped up in Jordan, with many protesters urging Jihad against Israel, the expulsion of the US ambassador in Amman, and even toppling the Jordanian government. According to the analyst, “Jordanian sources reported on recent Iraqi-Iranian efforts to infiltrate Jordan via the Iraqi convoys delivering aid to the Palestinians.”

The attack resulted in the complete destruction of the consulate building and casualties among its occupants, including General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a high-ranking member of Iran's Quds Force in charge of Iran's operations with Hezbollah and other militants in Syria and Lebanon.

"We assure you" that the Israeli Defense Forces and their supporters will be "punished remorsefully," reads the statement.

Earlier, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said that Iran, while reserving its rights to take countermeasures, would decide on the type and timing of its response.

Despite the Israeli attack, analysts suggest that Iran's longstanding strategy of indirect confrontation with Israel is likely to persist. Instead of direct conflict, Iran is anticipated to continue supporting its proxy groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and militias in Iraq and Yemen. These proxies serve as instruments for Iran to exert influence and pressure on regional rivals, including Israel and the United States.

Iran's support for such groups, encompassing financial, military, and ideological backing, underscores its broader objectives of extending influence, countering adversaries, and promoting its revolutionary ideology across the Middle East.

Jaish al-Adl armed militants attacked several police and military posts in two cities in Sistan-Baluchestan province, commencing on Thursday night and extending until Friday afternoon. The skirmish resulted in the loss of at least 16 government troops.

Jaish al-Adl, labeled as a "terrorist" organization by Iran, Pakistan, and the United States, has been involved in numerous extensive operations in Iran's southeastern region. The group officially claimed responsibility for the recent attack in a statement.

“Given the repeated violent and terrorist acts of the Jaish al-Adl terrorist group, which is sponsored by certain foreign countries, against innocent Iranian civilians and officials, the Islamic Republic of Iran asks the Security Council to strongly condemn these heinous terrorist acts and take appropriate measures in line with its commitments concerning fight against all forms and manifestations of terror, as shown by the Security Council in the press release dated December 16, 2023 (SC/15534),” Amir Saeid Iravani added.

Despite the severity of the incident, international reactions have been limited. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning the attack in Chabahar and Rask, expressing condolences to the victims' families.

The letter explicitly mentioned that Jaish al-Adl enjoys support from some foreign countries, although no specific nation was identified.

The recent escalation comes in the wake of heightened tensions in mid-January, triggered by a missile strike from the Revolutionary Guards on Jaish al-Adl positions within Pakistani territory. The incident strained relations between Iran and Pakistan, leading to retaliatory actions from Islamabad within Iranian borders. However, both countries have since declared a resolution to the tensions.

Saeed Madani, a sociologist, university professor, and political activist associated with the national-religious movement, received a nine-year prison sentence in November 2022 on charges such as "forming and managing opposition groups, conspiring against national security, and propagating against the regime." He had voiced support for anti-government protests at the time. Following this, he was transferred from Evin Prison to Damavand Prison on Tuesday.

“Khamenei, the tyrannical and ruthless dictator of Iran, and his oppressive supporters are in constant fear of public awareness and the spread of public knowledge; and for this reason, they are hostile to Madani and others like him and make them the target of their hatred and revenge,” Ghadiani said in a letter released on Thursday. In recent years, the former revolutionary and supporter of the Islamic Republic has turned into a staunch critic of Khamenei’s regime.

According to the former political prisoner, the regime has intensified its repressive measures against protesters and dissenters following the massive boycott of Iran’s recent elections in March that he and others have dubbed as Khamenei’s “disastrous fiasco.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader time and again called on Iranians to vote in parliamentary and the Assembly of Experts elections held on March 1. However, according to official statistics, only around 40% of the eligible voters participated in the elections, the lowest turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic. Many opposition activists contend that the actual turnout was even lower than the one announced by the government.

Calling the regime’s rising pressure on Madani “futile,” Ghadiani stressed that the sociologist and other political prisoners “will continue their struggle against tyranny under any circumstances and will have even greater impact.”

Further in his letter, the political dissident rejected Khameni’s reign over Iran as “illegal, illegitimate and usurping,” warning that the regime’s oppressions will continue as long as he is in power. At the end of his letter, Ghadiani expressed hope that Iranians would be able to replace the corrupt regime of the Islamic Republic with a secular democratic republic based on human rights.

On Wednesday, several high profile political prisoners voiced condemnation over the recent sentencing of Madani to exile, describing the action as “a desperate attempt to quell dissent.” Among the signatories were Golrokh Iraee, Alireza Eradati, Rasoul Bodaghi, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mahvash Sabet.

Ghadiani, 80, has been one of the most vocal and staunch opponents of Iran’s Supreme Leader over the past years. He belonged to a leftist, revolutionary group that was supporting the Islamic Republic and Khamenei until the disputed presidential election of 2009, when the Supreme Leader backed the questionable re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Ghadiani, with many others, protested the results and was jailed to become an opposition figure.

Receiving a 10-month jail sentence in July 2023, he said he is ready to go to prison “in Ali Khamenei’s dictatorial regime.” However, he refused to attend the court session and the authorities have refrained from implementing the verdict.

The plunge, the highest ever exchange rate recorded for the American currency in Iran, marks a nearly 30 percent decline for the rial since early January.

The recent Israeli airstrike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, resulting in the deaths of two high-ranking IRGC commanders and five officers, has further escalated tensions. The Iranian regime has vowed retaliation in response to the attack.

Since the 1979 revolution, the devaluation of the Iranian rial has been an ongoing trend, particularly escalating in 2018 after the US withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal and imposed sanctions on Iran's oil exports and banking sector.

The rial was valued at 70 rials per dollar in 1978. The devaluation has exacerbated inflationary pressures over the past five years, leading to millions of Iranians falling below the poverty line. While official government figures indicate an annual inflation rate of over 40 percent, many experts believe the actual rate to be higher.

Iranian authorities have often claimed that US and other sanctions have little impact on the nation's economy. However, as annual inflation hovers around 50 percent for five consecutive years, tens of million of people have lost their middle-class status and have to subsist with around $200 a month. Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has not allowed negotiations to limit Iran's nuclear program to move forward and Tehran has intensified its regional interventions contributing to high tensions.