This year, the Islamic month of Ramadan coincided with the ancient Persian celebration of New Year (Norouz). Urged by authorities to follow fasting traditions, Iranians were asked not to travel during Ramadan.
But, despite these calls, the Iranian populace took advantage of the one-week Norouz holiday, starting on March 20, and visited the country’s ancient and cherished national monuments.
Authorities reported a staggering 2.8 million Iranians flocking to the nation's museums and historical sites during the New Year holidays.
Among these destinations, the tomb of the revered Persian poet Hafez in Shiraz witnessed the most substantial influx, attracting approximately 200,000 visitors. The ancient city of Persepolis received approximately 140,000 visitors, while the historic royal complex of Sa’dabad Palace in Tehran welcomed around 75,000 visitors.
Pictures and videos showcasing the 5-kilometer queue of cars entering Persepolis, along with the sizable gathering of Iranians at the nearby ancient archaeological site of Naqsh-e Rostam, circulated on local websites.
Some estimates suggest nearly 10,000 people were in Persepolis and 30,000 people at the tomb of Hafez to mark the exact moment of the Spring equinox – marking the beginning of the new year. In several provinces people gathered around traditional bonfires to dance and sing and celebrate.
On the flip side, a senior Iranian cleric has reported that two-thirds of the country's 75,000 mosques have been shut down.
The mosques of major cities may attract a small crowd during communal prayers – only at one time of the day. Morning and afternoon prayers are often not held. During the month of Ramadan, mosques in Muslim-majority countries typically witness a surge in attendance.
But, in Iran prayers have retreated to the privacy of people’s homes – reflecting a trend where people prefer not to show off their religiosity.
Notably, the list of the most visited places doesn't even include iconic and breathtaking mosques such as the Amir Chakhmaq Mosque in Yazd or the Shah Mosque in Esfahan.
While government propaganda outlets claim 5 million pilgrims entered Khorasan Razavi province, no photographic evidence depicting these purported millions of people or the vehicles transporting them have been published.
This figure is misleading as it implies that all those entering Khorasan Razavi province are pilgrims, whereas many visit the province to reunite with family rather than for pilgrimage. The photos accompanying these reports depict tens of thousands of pilgrims, not millions as claimed.
Three competing visions
What vision does the above social trend draw for the future of Iran? In what direction is the country heading? Despite enduring political and social upheavals, the main highways shaping Iran's future trajectory are rooted in Iran-centered nationalism, Islamism, and ethnocentrism.
None of these three can be eliminated, yet current developments vividly illustrate the path of nationalism over the other two.
Even religious reformers no longer believe that Islamism will remain the dominant vision. Ethnocentrism is present but not dominant. However, Iran-centric nationalism, once marginalized during the dominance of Islam-oriented discourse from the 1980s to the 2000s, has emerged as a serious and formidable contender against both Islam-oriented and ethnocentric perspectives in recent years.
Among these three paths, the Islam-centered one has been thoroughly explored in the past, with its failures and disastrous outcomes evident for Iranians to see clearly. The effort of the Islamists was to realize this path in such a way that no one in Iran could even think of the other two. The Islamists wanted to build their ideal society without a rival by realizing religious totalitarianism and stopping the resistance of Iranian citizens against repressive and Islamist-oriented social engineering.
The Iran-centered roadmap was implemented over five decades by a group of patriotic people during the Pahlavi era and brought Iran security, prosperity, development, tolerance, and credibility in the world.
The only unexplored path remaining is ethnocentrism. The challenge with this approach is that, aside from advocating for self-government and local rule, it has not put forth a comprehensive vision for the nation-state. For this reason, individuals who do not align with the framework of ethnicities or have moved beyond ethnic affiliations do not see this vision as their salvation.
Since 2018, the Islam-oriented and ethno-oriented perspectives have not appeared much even in the scene of public protests. The slogan "Fundamentalist, reformist! It's over" – which permeated the political landscape of the country and was even somewhat echoed by politicians of the Islamic Republic in various forms – marked a pivotal moment in the decline of the Islam-oriented path in the nation. The ruling Islamists even beat the drum of military ambitions and missiles more than the elements of the Islam-oriented path. By using the combination of "Iranian-Islamic" for their programs, they attempt to make it Iran-centric. However, the Sharia-centric path and the lifestyle of the Shia clergy are so central in their programs that they leave no room for Iran.
Nationalist or patriotic movements, which the left falsely identifies as fascist and racist, are gaining momentum worldwide. They seek to liberate their nations from the influence of indoctrination, radical ideologies, identity politics, anarchism, and cultural relativism – ideologies that threaten the decline of Western civilization. Today, Iranian nationalism is focused on the salvation of Iran by eliminating Islamist policies.
Due to its compatibility with the lifestyle of the majority, social tolerance, development-oriented approach, and openness to the West, the Iran-centered path has garnered the greatest support from the common people in the streets and markets.
The slogan "Reza Shah, Rest in Peace" used in street protests, invoking the memory of the first King of the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran, effectively encapsulates this vision.
"The Islamic Republic of Iran will not hesitate in supporting the cause of Palestine and the oppressed and resilient people of Gaza," Khamenei said during his meeting with Haniyeh.
The real reason for such trips rarely leaks to media, but Iran has backed Hamas in the nearly six-month war with Israel, which is still reeling from the US decision not to veto the UN Security Council resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire. This is Haniyeh's second visit to Iran since Hamas invaded Israel, killing 1,200 mostly civilians and taking 250 hostages in October.
Hamas welcomed the resolution but said the ceasefire needs to be permanent. Iranian officials lauded it as “a positive step” with foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani saying, “A more important step is effective action for its implementation."
Haniyeh said in Tehran on Tuesday that Hamas is transitioning into a new phase of war with Israel. “We are in the process of passing through a historic phase in the struggle against the Zionist regime, with the Al-Aqsa Storm being the turning point,” he said during his joint press conference with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. Hamas dubs its attack on Israel as the Al-Aqsa Storm.
“Iran stands at the forefront of supporting the cause and people of Palestine,” Haniyeh added. “I extend special thanks to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, the President of Iran, and the people of Iran.”
In March 2022, Haniyeh revealed that the Islamic Republic paid a total of $70 million to Hamas to help it develop missiles and defense systems. During an interview with Al-Jazeera, Haniyeh said different countries help in financing the group, but Iran is the biggest donor.
Last May, Iran International reported that Hamas pressured the Islamic Republic into inviting its leader, Ismail Haniyeh, to Tehran hoping to get financial support. Our sources said that although the Islamic Republic continues to provide financial aid to Hamas despite its own economic situation, Tehran was not satisfied with the performance of the group against Israel. This was only a few months before Hamas launched the October 7 attack.
While Hezbollah is by far Iran's richest and most powerful proxy, the combined funds of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement, Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine are enormous, Hamas and Islamic Jihad receiving a large share of Tehran’s aid. In 2018, US President Donald Trump’s special Middle East envoy Jason Greenblatt, who recently visited Israel's communities on the Gaza perimeter and toured the terror tunnel the IDF exploded, claimed Iran provided $100 million annually to Hamas compared to $700m annually to Hezbollah.
During his press conference in Tehran, Haniyeh stated that UN resolution was an indication that Israel is globally isolated. He said that Israel is "losing political cover and protection even in the Security Council" and "the US is unable to impose its will on the international community".
Also on Tuesday, Israel said it is recalling its negotiating team from Qatar after Hamas rejected its latest offer in talks for a hostage deal and truce.
According to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office, Hamas’s decision to reject a US-brokered compromise is “clear proof it is not interested in continuing talks, and a sad testament to the damage caused by the UN Security Council resolution.”
The Israeli government accuses Hamas of retreating to its “extreme demands” including a complete end to the war and full IDF withdrawal from Gaza. “Israel will not cave to Hamas’s delusional demands.”
A diplomatic official quoted by Hebrew-language media said Hamas demanded that Gazans be given carte blanche to return to the north of the Strip and did not even address a hostage release. “There is no one to talk to on the other side and the Israeli negotiating team has nothing to do in Qatar,” the source is quoted saying according to the Times of Israel.