The New Iranian Year ‘Last Chance’ For Regime, Pundits Say
Analysts in Iran are evaluating the country's prospects for recovery and embarking on a path towards development after years of setbacks in domestic and foreign policy, and the economy.
Analysts in Iran are evaluating the country's prospects for recovery and embarking on a path towards development after years of setbacks in domestic and foreign policy, and the economy.
Reza Alijani, a reform-minded religious-nationalist political observer, penned a Persian article for Iran International suggesting that the new Iranian year, beginning on March 20, is poised to be characterized by "chaos and disillusionment in the upper echelons and challenge and erosion in the lower depths" of Iranian society.
Alijani asserts that with the increasing empowerment of radical forces, the social sphere is unlikely to open up; instead, more restrictions may be imposed to suppress militant women opposing the compulsory hijab rule.
Moreover, the ongoing battle between dissatisfied youths and the rigid minority opposing modern lifestyles is expected to persist. Alijani suggests that beneath the surface, public dissent simmers, poised to erupt fueled by frustration over declining livelihoods and resentment toward the lifestyle promoted by hardliners.
Within the government, as the new parliament convenes in the summer, internal strife is expected to intensify. This year, preparations for the upcoming presidential election in 2025 will also commence, further fueling chaos and infighting among the upper echelons of power.
Simultaneously, a complex chess game will unfold among clerics and politicians, shaping the landscape for succession and the post-Khamenei era of the Islamic Republic.
Additionally, Alijani predicts that foreign-based opposition groups will become more radical, while there may also be opportunities for moderates to emerge. This could pave the way for the establishment of an efficient democracy after a transitional period.
Reformist commentator Abbas Abdi characterized the new year as the last opportunity for the regime to come to its senses and begin a process to bring the country to cohesion and progress. The new year, he wrote in Tehran’s Etemad newspaper, marks the need for the government to wake up and accept to bring about or surrender to changes in domestic and foreign policies, as well as in the economy.
In his commentary headlined as "Year of reforms, Year of Awakening," Abdi wrote that "last year was the end of dreams and wishful thinking and the new year is an opportunity for awakening and change.” He added that although the current wishful thinking in the government based on illusions was once tried under the Ahmadinejad administration in the2010s, toward the end of that period even hardliners looked forward to its end.
The new wave of ultraconservatism which started in 2021 by the coming to power of Ebrahim Raisi as President was marked by a surge in "political purification". It is now evident that this process will never end. The new ultraconservatives refused to take a lesson from the fate of their predecessors, but the latest low-turnout elections in Iran should be proof got them that without changing their ways, everyone can drown in an unpredictable storm.
Abdi expressed the belief that hardliners have now realized that political purification cannot help materialize the unrealistic promises they made at the beginning of their government. Now the people have lost all hope and trust in the government and its promises.
However, knowing the Iranian regime, the idea of an awakening is more out of reach than ever. Describing the grim situation, Massoud Pezeshkian, an MP from Tabriz, told Rouydad24 website: "I have no answers for the people's questions. Every morning they wake up to higher prices. Slightly more than a year is remaining from the lifetime of this government. What has it done for the people so far? Rising prices are breaking the people's back and I have no answer for their questions."
Earlier this month, irrefutable evidence surfaced indicating Sedighi's involvement in the appropriation of a valuable plot of land worth approximately $20 million in northern Tehran. The revelation, brought forth by a whistle-blower, shed light on Sedighi's alleged misdeeds.
Initially, Sedighi denied any knowledge of the transfer of ownership, claiming his signature had been forged by a trustee. However, it was later revealed that Sedighi had personally signed the transfer documents at a notary public. Despite this acknowledgment, the seminary he oversees maintained innocence and stated that the plot's ownership was in the process of being returned.
“Claiming [the plot] is in the process of being repatriated [to the seminary], several months after the crime was committed and following its revelation, has no effect on the [nature of the] crime itself,” Mohsen Borhani, a dissident lawyer with seminary training, said on Instagram, arguing that repatriation of the plot, if completed, can only be a factor contributing to reduction of the prescribed sentence for the crime.
Iran International TV’s “Your Side of the Story” program received dozens of messages last week from citizens who are extremely distrustful of a regime they say is “systematically corrupt” and incorrigible.
Some of the messages shared the same suspicions that repatriation of the appropriated plot to the Seminary by Sedighi, even if true, meant nothing other than “taking from one pocket and shoving it in the other”.
Many others who have taken to social media to express their anger, compare authorities’ leniency in dealing with Sedighi’s “grand theft” with their extreme harshness against others for petty theft.
People commented that the system punishes petty criminals for theft by long prison sentences and even amputation of fingers and hands, targets women for showing a few strands of hair, but has not taken any action against Sedighi as if repatriation of the ownership of the plot to the seminary all wrongdoing is forgiven.
“Firstly, there is no documentation or evidence that this man repatriated the plot. Even if he produces proof, no one will believe it because Iranian people’s trust in the authorities of the Islamic Republic does not even reach one percent,” one of the messages sent to Your Side of the Story read.
A veteran of the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), Khalil Aghapour, in a tweet recounted how as a 15-year-old he had forged his father’s signature to be able to join the volunteers to defend the homeland against the Iraqi invasion, and was mortally wounded several times. “I wish I was dead,” he said, referring to the deeds of those in power who he said claim to be pious.
Sedighi is among Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s inner circle. Despite the scandal involving him, he was invited to Khamenei’s Norouz (New Iranian Year) speech on March 20.
Hardline media such as Tehran Municipality’s Hamshahri newspaper and Fars News Agency, have been sympathetic to Sedighi and tried to justify his actions.
Dedicating a large section on its front page to the issue on Saturday, Hamshahri called on hardline students known as Justice Seekers (Edalatkhahan) who are highly critical of Sedighi to treat the case “piously” and to “avoid gross injustice in the name of seeking justice”.