The Houthi operation –largest reported to date– was against a Singapore-flagged cargo ship and several American warships. The Houthis’ military spokesman, Yahya Saree, confirmed the strike and said the attacks would continue “until the aggression stops and the siege on the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip is lifted.”
The Houthis have been targeting commercial vessels (and often US warships) in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden since November, disrupting global maritime trade, forcing major shipping companies out of the region, sinking one ship and killing three civilian crew members. The attacks began after Iran's ruler Ali Khamenei called for Muslims to "blockade" Israel.
Their ‘swarm’ attack Saturday may be seen as a significant escalation, since it’s much more likely that one out of the many drones flying together evades the defense systems and hits a US warship – which would force the Biden administration to elevate the leval of its response, possibly even targeting Iranian assets.
This time, however, “no U.S. or Coalition Navy vessels were damaged in the attack and there were also no reports by commercial ships of damage”, according to US Central Command. The action was taken “to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure.”
Earlier this week, CENTCOM commander General Michael Kurilla warned about the threat of ‘swarm’ attacks in a US Senate Armed Service Committee hearing. He said such an attack was a “bigger concern” than single missile or drone strikes and needed “investment” in technologies to ensure it could be countered.
“Nothing is 100 percent,” Kurilla said. “At some point, the law of statistics will come up to you. You have to have a layered defense.”
Russia has used swarm attack tactics in Ukraine using Iranian kamikaze drones to overwhelm air defenses, with the aim of getting its ballistic missiles through the net.
The CENTCOM commander drew a worrying picture of Iran’s position as the key force behind many armed groups in the region, which act against US interests. He stopped short of criticizing the Biden administration, however, as it tries in vain to establish deterrence.
“Iran is undeterred in support to the Houthi,” Kurilla said, “they are undeterred in their support to Hezbollah, their support to Hamas, the support into the West Bank. They are deterred right now in Iraq and Syria and their support to the Iranian aligned militia groups, but not in terms of attacks, but not necessarily in terms of their funding and equipping.”
Ever since Hamas’ rampage of Israel on October 7 and the ensuing Israeli onslaught on Gaza, Iran has intensified its indirect campaign against American and Israeli interests, utilizing armed groups that it funds, equips, trains across the Middle East.
Critics of the Biden administration blame the US President and his team for having eroded deterrence and emboldened Iran and its proxies in the past few years. The only solution, they maintain, is to make the regime in Tehran ‘feel the heat’ and pay the ‘cost’ of their malign activities.
A case in point is the fate of the Iran spy ship Behshad, which has been the subject of intense scrutiny within maritime circles –many believing that it is helping Houthis with intelligence on commercial sea traffic, effectively enabling their attacks. And still no one, the US government in particular, is willing to take action against it.
The Biden administration and the coalition forces fear that sinking (or targeting) Behshad would put them at war with Iran and further complicate what seems to be an intractable crisis in the Middle East. Iran has threatened that attacking Behshad would jeopardize “international maritime routes” and would bring about “future international risks.”
Concerns about Behshad’s role have sharpened after the fatal attack on cargo ship True Confidence, which killed three of the vessel's crew. According to a report in the Financial Times Saturday, Behshad was 43 nautical miles away when the True Confidence was struck.
The report quotes experts who have studied Behshad’s recent behavior and have concluded that it’s “extremely unusual”. And still no one is willing to confront it.
“Whilst I’d like to see some kind of kinetic action against Behshad, I’m not sure we’ll see that in the near term,” the Financial Times quoted a maritime security expert in its report Saturday.
