Blank Votes And Infighting Show Khamenei’s Waning Influence
Two significant trends mark the orchestrated 2024 elections in Iran: the notable significance of invalid or blank votes and the strife among winning factions loyal to Khamenei.
Two significant trends mark the orchestrated 2024 elections in Iran: the notable significance of invalid or blank votes and the strife among winning factions loyal to Khamenei.
Despite the objections of Khamenei's confidant, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, the ultraconservatives fielded six lists for Tehran, whose representatives will wield considerable influence in parliament's management. Internal conflicts between pro-Khamenei factions are exacerbated in the absence of more moderate politicians who were barred from competing in the elections.
The unprecedented number of blank votes and the infighting among hardliners underscore Khamenei's waning influence over his supporters and the election manipulation apparatus.
Conducting rigged elections in the Islamic Republic has become increasingly challenging. Citizens capture videos from polling stations, revealing lower turnout than the government asserts. Furthermore, individuals can express discontent with the voting system by submitting invalid handwritten ballots. This tactic may also serve to avoid potential repercussions for non-participation, such as employment disqualification or promotion denial.
Voting for a popular footballer
An election boycott movement was underway for weeks. It was clear for months that most Iranians, deeply dissatisfied with the regime, would boycott the elections, and the decision by hardliners to keep other regime supporters out did not help the situation. Amid a low turnout, many of those who voted cast blank votes. Mohammad Mohajeri, a conservative commentator tweeted that the number of invalid votes were higher than the number of votes top contenders were able to get in Tehran.
Confirming the significant increase in the number of invalid votes, Didban Iran website wrote, "After counting 80% of the ballot boxes in Tehran, there were more than 380k invalid votes," even though the first person has about 340k votes.” The invalid written votes consisted of soccer symbols and names of footballers. In Yazd, the number of invalid votes is about 29,000, in second place.
It seems that invalid votes in Iran's engineered elections are gradually becoming a permanent phenomenon. In the presidential election of 2021, invalid votes came second after Ebrahim Raisi, at 13 percent. There are reports of 30% invalid votes in this parliamentary election.
People’s power
The Guardian Council and higher authorities aimed to manipulate both the candidate pool and public opinion through discretionary oversight. However, people are now countering these tactics by casting invalid votes, undermining the system's efforts to engineer public sentiment. Submitting invalid votes in the Islamic Republic serves as a means to avoid potential prosecution for abstaining from voting while simultaneously mocking the political establishment.
Engineered elections typically offer both advantages and drawbacks for the regime. With each repetition, however, the costs of these sham elections are outweighing their benefits. They increasingly embarrass the regime by exposing its lies, fraud, manipulation of numbers, and propaganda tactics to the public eye.
Insider infighting
Another consequence of engineered elections is the escalation of tensions among insiders vying for limited sources of power. In Tehran, after counting approximately two-thirds of the votes, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, the former Speaker of Parliament, found himself in fourth place. Ghalibaf is now in competition with a member of the Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi cult, a cleric known for issuing fatwas sanctioning violence against those who defy Sharia law in their private lives.
The formation of a unified candidate list for Tehran was crucial for the hardline faction ahead of the election, but this did not materialize. Instead, six separate lists were published, each with its own distinct differences. Essentially, this divergence led to a war of competing lists, with Mesbah's followers, organized in the Paydari front, gaining ground over traditionalist Islamists. Even close associates of Khamenei, such as Haddad-Adel, who spearheaded the main list of fundamentalists, emerged as losers in this internal power struggle.
Ghalibaf’s speakership in jeopardy
To undermine Ghalibaf's influence and remove him from the speakership of the 12th Majles, supporters of Mesbah Yazdi employed various tactics to weaken Ghalibaf's allies. They insisted that Morteza Aqa-Tehrani, a prominent figure of the Paydari Front, be positioned as a top figure alongside Ghalibaf on the electoral list. Ultimately, Ghalibaf acquiesced to this demand, but the outcome reveals that some Paydari supporters refrained from voting for Ghalibaf.
Simultaneously, some of Ghalibaf's allies abandoned him midway and aligned with his adversaries. After parting ways with the Ghalibaf-Haddad united list, they joined other coalitions such as the "Amna" list. This coalition, led by Hamid Rasa’i allied with other fundamentalist groups to dismantle the Ghalibaf coalition. Rasa’i is recognized as one of the most extremist figures among the fundamentalist lists.
The role of Alireza Zakani, the mayor of Tehran, is also noteworthy in dealing a blow to Khamenei’s influence. Zakani spearheaded another list known as the United Front of the Revolution, which shared many similarities with the Paydari list. The recent elections appear to mark the beginning of the decline of Ghalibaf and Haddad Adel's influence in the legislature.
Alongside these warnings, they have offered roadmaps and guidelines aimed at navigating the potential challenges arising from the political impasse.
Despite the government’s claim of a 40-percent turnout, scattered voting results announced since Friday indicate a lower turnout and an unprecedented number of blank ballots.
One day before the elections, former Majles Speaker Ali Larijani emphasized the urgent need for a "national unity government" to address the looming challenges both regionally and internationally. He stressed the importance of forming coalitions at various political levels and fostering cohesion and empathy among the people as crucial steps towards steering the country out of its current predicament.
Larijani's nuanced message struck at the core of Iran's foreign policy, which has resulted in international isolation and the imposition of sanctions, culminating in a five-year-long economic crisis.
Larijani also advocated for the strategic use of "protest votes," suggesting that casting blank ballots or supporting candidates outside the leading ultraconservative camp could serve as a wake-up call to the government. However, he cautioned that such actions might come at a significant cost to both the government and the nation, potentially paving the way for a dictatorship if left unaddressed.
Furthermore, Larijani warned against the disillusionment of the people, asserting that it could signal the onset of authoritarian rule. He urged the government to ensure that despite the biased vetting process that sidelined reformist and moderate candidates, there are still avenues for representing the rights and aspirations of dissatisfied voters.
At the same time, Larijani, who led the parliament for 12 years, underscored the importance of voter participation in effecting change within the country's political landscape. He urged the populace to engage in the electoral process as a means of holding the government accountable and advocating for reforms, cautioning that abstaining from voting could empower a minority to seize power.
In addition to Larijani’s warnings and recommendation, former government spokesman Ali Rabiei proposed a post-election roadmap for reform-minded Iranians. He emphasized the need for coalition-building and collective action to rectify the shortcomings of the electoral system and safeguard Iran's freedoms and improve governance.
Rabiei stressed that the consolidation of conservative political power alone would not address Iran's underlying issues or alleviate the current political impasse. Instead, he advocated for the unity of reformist and moderate forces to navigate the challenges posed by the prevailing political climate.
Nevertheless, Iranian voters also harbor disillusionment toward Reformists who have advocated for gradual change for over a quarter of a century, yet failed to achieve tangible results, ultimately witnessing the regime's complete takeover by hardliners.
Meanwhile, a video surfaced on social media featuring Iranian sociologist Hatam Ghaderi quoting Ruhollah Khomeini, the Islamic Republic's founding leader, regarding the imposition of the 1905 constitution that put an end to absolute rule and established a constitutional monarchy. Khomeini argued that people preferred an Islamic government, not a constitution established seven decades earlier. Dissidents and many Iranian now make the same argument, saying that they are not bound what their grandfathers and fathers preferred 45 years ago, and want a regime change.
Pointing out that protests in Iran cost lives, Ghaderi said: "Now the people do not want the Constitution of the Islamic Republic. They do not want the guardianship of the Supreme Leader. How can they say we do not want this Constitution without fearing repression or getting killed or shot in the eye, and without thousands of people being jailed?"
Major exchange dealers have even shut down their price announcement boards, according to reports received by Iran International.
Following the parliamentary elections in Iran, the currency and gold markets witnessed historic highs, with the US dollar reaching the 600,000 rial mark at one point during Saturday. Sources in the Tehran market and currency information websites reported that the dollar reached 602,000 rials in the early hours of Saturday trading, marking a three percent increase from Thursday's closing rates.
The dollar's doubling against the rial since March 2022, coupled with failed nuclear negotiations with the US and its European allies, has contributed to this economic turmoil. On Saturday, the euro was traded at 656,000 rials and the British pound at 764,000 rials in the free market, indicating increases of over three and 2.5 percent, respectively, compared to Thursday's rates.
Moreover, the price of 18-carat gold surged to around thirty million rials per gram, reflecting a 3.5 percent increase from the previous week.
Observers and experts had anticipated further economic complications following the parliamentary elections, which amid voter apathy and lack of competition, propelled hardliners to gain absolute majority in the legislature.
The continuous devaluation of the rial, particularly since the US withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018, has fueled inflation and plunged millions into poverty. The economic crisis has eroded the government's legitimacy, with a historic low voter turnout in the March 1 elections.
Meanwhile, according to Iran’s Statistical Center, the prices of canned tuna and red meat in February increased by 133% and 100%, respectively, compared to the same period last year.
In a report published on Saturday, Etemad daily analyzed the data provided by Iran’s Statistical Centre on the state of the food market. Entitled “The Three-Digit Inflation of the Proteins,” the report reviewed the average prices of 53 selected food items in urban areas.
Of these, 48 items have increased in price over the past 12 months. Some of these items recorded a three-digit annual inflation rate, with canned tuna at the top of the list with a 133% price increase.
Next in line is red meat which has an annual inflation rate of about 100%. The price of one kilogram of lamb meat in February last year was 2,850,000 rials ($5.7), which increased to 5,360,000 rials ($10.72) in February 2024.
According to the report, the prices of chicken meat and salmon have also risen by 55% and 65%, respectively, in the same period.
Meanwhile, Eqtesad 24 daily reported that nearly one-third of Iranians struggle below poverty line. The report projected a concerning escalation in poverty rates, foreseeing that by the end of the current Iranian year [March 20], “the proportion of individuals below the poverty line could soar to 37 to 40 percent.”
The forecast attributes the surge to the combination of soaring inflation rates and stagnant wages, exacerbating the financial strain faced by many Iranians.
In January, Iran announced that the new base monthly salary would rise to approximately $200 with a 20-percent increase. However, the constant decline in the value of the rial now pegs it to around $160.