Iran Cyber-Police Warns About Vulnerability In Major Automation System

The Fars reportestablished a narrative that other outlets hesitated to challenge. Shortly after vote counting commenced, the state news agency IRNA also claimed a turnout of 41%. Compared to the official participation rate of 42.57% in 2020, the government figures aimed to demonstrate that the Mahsa Movement has had minimal impact on the regime's legitimacy and popularity, even with less than 50% of eligible voters participating.

The regime's propaganda apparatus and election officials had worked diligently to gradually legitimize this inflated number in the public eye. In late February, IRIB reported survey results indicating a 43% voter turnout expectation. ISPA's data three days before election day echoed this sentiment, projecting a 41% turnout. Thus, the claim of "more than 40%" seemed a calculated attempt to maintain the consistency of past rigged elections, without resorting to an overt falsehood like 60%. This modest deception aligns with a regime that boasts of 50 million attendees at its anniversary, presenting a relatively modest distortion.

Just hours before Fars News released its turnout figures, the Tehran governor implicitly threatened to prosecute anyone discussing turnout before the IRGC's outlet did so: "Anyone who comments on the participation rate in the elections is speculating individually and bears the responsibility alone."

However, the claim of "more than 40%" seems dubious for two reasons. First, three pre-election surveys indicated national participation rates of 35% or less. Internal estimates by Mohammad Reza Bahonar put national participation at 35%, with Tehran at 17%. Gamaan's latest survey suggested only 25 to 30% of eligible voters intended to participate. Additionally, Statis Consulting's survey projected a record-low turnout of 34%. The average of these figures, at 33%, is significantly lower than both the Fars News and IRNA numbers, with the margin of error typically between 1-3 percent.

Even the statistics indicating 35%, 30%, or 34% participation in what many view as sham elections should be viewed skeptically. In a police state, where individuals fear surveillance, some may falsely claim participation over the phone, rendering such polls unreliable.

Another reason for skepticism lies in the lack of enthusiasm evident before election day, with reports of empty polling stations during supposed peak times.

Officials maintained the participation rate of Tehran at ballot boxes compared to the previous term (24%), implying political continuity from four years ago. However, the reported increase in participation in Alborz province (up to 30%), adjacent to Tehran, seems implausible given the region's activism during the 2022 protests.

Regarding the new Majles composition, it was evident from the start that the Guardian Council, Khamenei's office, and IRGC sought to maintain the status quo. Disqualifications were intended to secure this outcome, and early results confirm this expectation.

Two unexpected developments emerged: Mohammad Reza Bahonar's loss in Kerman province, potentially challenging parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf for the speakership, and former president Mohammad Khatami's decision to refrain from visiting polling stations, despite his ongoing encouragement for people to vote following the 2009 presidential elections.

The US Deputy Special Envoy to Iran, Abram Paley, pointed out that the Iranian people are deprived of genuine choice at the polls. “As some Iranians vote today in their first parliamentary election since the regime's latest violent crackdown, the world knows the Iranian people do not have a true say at the ballot box.”

Noting that the elections do not represent the Iranian people, he highlighted that thousands of candidates were already barred from running for a seat. “The regime seeks to use these elections as the façade of democracy, but has already disqualified thousands of candidates. The Iranian people know well these elections are unrepresentative, whatever the outcome. And we do too.”

He also referred to the ongoing suppression of dissent, citing the sentencing of singer-songwriter Shervin Hajipour earlier Friday. Hajipour's song, "Baraye," became a symbol of the Iranian protests, winning him a Grammy award and landing him in prison.

Paley also vowed that the United States will relentlessly expose Iranian officials complicit in human rights violations and denying basic freedoms. He concluded with a firm message of solidarity, "We stand with the Iranian people in their struggle for a free and democratic future."

On the eve of elections, the US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller censured Iran’s electoral system as “opaque” and “undemocratic.” "I suspect that a great number of Iranians have no expectation that those elections will be free and fair," the state department said.

The election headquarters extended the polling hours three times, two hours each time until midnight, instead of the initial closing time at 6:00 pm. This tactic to show a high turnout and busy polling stations was also used in previous elections.

Spokesman of the Guardian Council, Hadi Tahan-Nazif, told reporters in the early hours of the evening that turnout had already surpassed the previous elections in 2020. He avoided answering reporters’ questions about the number of ballots distributed to the polling stations which could provide a preliminary estimate of the turnout.

The regime appears to be deeply concerned about low turnout because officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have always boasted that higher turnout in Iranian elections in comparison with some Western countries was proof of the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy and popularity with its citizens.

Photos showing a deserted polling station in the Kurdish city of Boukan. 

In the past two weeks, many clergymen and regime politicians came out urging people to vote, spreading fear that a low turnout can endanger the country’s security and make governance even worse than what it has been in recent years.

Khamenei cast his vote a few minutes after the opening of the polls and made a speech in which he told voters to head to the polls and vote as early as possible. “Pay attention to this: Make friends happy and disappoint the ill-wishers,” he said while stressing that the eyes of the world, both friends and enemies, were on the Iranian elections.

Local authorities in some provinces and cities such as Lorestan, Kordestan, and Mashhad announced partial turnout figures in the afternoon. In Lorestan a local official claimed that 10 percent of the voters had cast their votes by 4:00 PM local time. For Kordestan, the turnout was said to be 25 percent by 7:00 PM. Even these official figures seem low, given a trend that regime loyalists usually vote early in the day.

A polling station at 10:00 AM in the religious city of Qom

According to the governor of Mashhad, which is the country’s second largest city, 33 percent of the eligible voters had already voted by around 4:00 PM local time. He said in the previous parliamentary elections in 2020 turnout was 33 percent so this time it is going to be higher when the polls close.

The religious city of Mashhad is a major stronghold of hardliners where turnout is usually much higher than in the capital Tehran.

An empty polling station in Qasr-e Qand in Sistan and Baluchestan province

But local officials were later warned not to announce any figures before the completion of the elections and to leave such announcements to the election headquarters.

Videos and photos posted from across the country on social media or sent to Iran International TV, however, show much fewer people, or even none, at the polls. Many social media users have jokingly compared the sparse queues and rather deserted polling stations with the queues at nearby restaurants and cashpoints where more people could be seen on Friday.

They also claim that the state television is using photos and footage from the previous elections as “live” material and have identified some photos of voters and queues used by the state media that belong to four years ago.

The photo on the left was taken in the elections of 2020 in the Kurdish city of Sanandaj as seen from the picture on the right.

Statements by some officials also suggest that despite the government propaganda, turnout fell far shorter than what authorities expected or hoped for.

“I invite all those who have trusted and voted for me and the main list of the Revolutionary Front, to increase their participation, to contact their friends or acquaintances right now and convince them to participate in the elections. It is not important just to win the elections, increasing participation is a priority,” Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf tweeted several hours after the polls opened. 

While the Iranian regime heavily relies on Beijing as its primary oil customer, the actual data on bilateral economic relations appears less promising for the sanctions-stricken country.

China's foreign trade statistics for 2023 reveal that Beijing's largest trade volume is with the European Union, reaching $783 billion last year. Following the EU are major economies such as the US ($664 billion), Japan ($318 billion), South Korea, and others.

This overall picture will most probably not appeal to the Iranian regime sympathizers who have frequently lauded Tehran-Beijing ties as a sign of Iran’s foreign policy success; they have to be very patient to get to Iran’s name on the list.

Iran's placement as China's 38th trading partner, with trade volume not exceeding $32 billion, falls significantly behind several neighboring and regional rivals. Saudi Arabia, for instance, boasts a trade volume with China of $107 billion, followed by the UAE, Iraq, Turkey, and Oman.

Next in the region are the UAE ($95 billion), Iraq ($50 billion), Turkey ($43 billion) and Oman ($35 billion). Qatar, Kuwait, Pakistan and Egypt are the only regional countries whose volume of trade with China is less than Iran’s.

Iran Economist news website covered China’s foreign trade data in 2023 and Iran’s meager share in it, ironically calling it “the new achievement” of the Iranian government.

Faraz Daily, an online newspaper, warned that decline in trade with China is just a symptom which reflects a much enormous problem: Iran’s decline share of the world trade. According to the newspaper, Iran’s share of world trade has alarmingly decreased to %0.24 in 2022.

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, economist and the founder of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, a think-tank focusing on economic diplomacy in the Middle East and Central Asia, remarked on X that “Chinese exports to Iran have fallen significantly since their 2014 peak” while Beijing’s trade with Moscow has grown.

Many observers contend that China has over the past years considered Iran as an instrument through which it can boost its leverage in the region. According to Amin Saikal, emeritus professor of Middle Eastern, Central Asian and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University, “in befriending Iran and Afghan theocracies, China has positioned itself to be able to extend its influence across West Asia, given Tehran’s formidable proxy presence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.”

Despite this, Iranian officials have made numerous concessions to China, including granting contracts for infrastructure projects in Tehran, a move criticized by Ahmad Khorram, former Roads and Transportation Minister, as detrimental to local expertise.

Earlier this month, Tehran’s municipality announced that China will soon start building housing units in the capital. Mayor Alireza Zakani said several contracts have been signed with Chinese companies to revamp the capital’s infrastructure, including construction and transportation projects, at the expense of local businesses amidst a crippling economic crisis.

Rejecting the deal as an insult to the local expertise, Ahmad Khorram, former Roads and Transportation Minister, warned that “we have given China privileges that are unprecedented in our country.” According to the former minister, Tehran provides Beijing with all these privileges to guarantee its support in the UN Security Council.

Both China and Russia have collaborated with the US over banning Iran’s nuclear program and were the first countries to back the Security Council’s resolutions against Iran, he stressed.

The rial sank to a low of 592,000 against the US dollar, which signifies a more than 17-percent drop since early January when tensions rose in the Middle East.

The dollar has doubled against the rial since March 2022, after Iranian hardliners established control over the government and nuclear negotiations with the United States and its European allies failed to make any progress.

The Euro traded at 640,000 and the British pound near 750,000 rials on Tehran’s black market on Friday.

The rial, which has steadily fallen since the 1979 revolution, began a steep dive in 2018 when the United States withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal and imposed oil export as well as banking sanctions on Iran. The currency traded at 70 rials per dollar in 1978.

The significant depreciation of the rial has exacerbated inflationary pressures in the past five years, with millions of people falling below the poverty line. Official government figures indicate more than 40 percent annual inflation, while many in Iran believe the real figure is higher.

The economic crisis has damaged the Islamic government’s legitimacy in the eyes of voters, who are expected to shun the ongoing elections according to observers in Iran and several independent polling groups.