Senior visiting fellow, George Mason University
Iran currently lacks a substantial presence in the burgeoning hydrogen industry, despite its abundance of natural gas and renewable energy potential.
Utilizing renewable energy sources such as solar or wind power, "green hydrogen" is produced by electrolysis, which produces hydrogen without any emissions. This contrasts with traditional techniques that release carbon dioxide.
Experts anticipate the global hydrogen market, a pivotal energy source, to reach a staggering annual value of $700 billion by 2050. However, Iran finds itself outside the current trajectory of this evolving market.
Hydrogen, recognized for its cleanliness and sustainability, holds immense potential as a major contributor to power generation. Its significance lies in fuel cells, combustion, and energy storage, making it a crucial element in transitioning to a low-carbon and sustainable energy system. The appeal of hydrogen for practical applications stems from its remarkable energy content per weight, approximately three times higher than gasoline.
Iran faces vulnerabilities in its energy security due to market and geopolitical risks, given its heavy reliance on natural gas, especially from the South Pars field in the Persian Gulf. To enhance resilience, Iran must diversify its energy sources, with a particular emphasis on hydrogen and renewables. This shift aligns with global environmental trends and is imperative for the nation's economic and energy security.
Last July, Mahmoud Kamani, the Deputy Minister of Energy, announced that the drafting of a national hydrogen document by the Renewable Energy and Electricity Efficiency Organization of Iran (SATBA) is underway. In the context of Iran, Kamani stressed the need to draft a national hydrogen document to leverage its diverse applications effectively. SATBA, serving as the secretariat for this initiative, has activated relevant working groups to facilitate the process. According to Kamani, while hydrogen is currently produced from natural gas, there is a potential to shift towards hydrogen derived from renewable energy sources, although Iran’s renewable energy sector is underdeveloped and very small.
To compete in the hydrogen production market, Iran must establish a sustainable energy generation infrastructure. However, it lags behind regional counterparts like Turkey and Saudi Arabia in various forms of renewable energy. Turkey, for instance, surpasses Iran significantly in wind and solar power, as well as hydroelectric capacity. Building a robust energy infrastructure is essential for Iran to catch up and contribute meaningfully to the hydrogen market.
Jalil Salari, Deputy Minister of Oil for Refining and Distribution of Petroleum Products, has highlighted that the cost of producing a ton of hydrogen from hydrocarbon sources is around $400. Economic considerations are crucial, especially for incorporating hydrogen into the transportation sector. Currently, Iran's oil refineries produce approximately 300 million cubic feet of hydrogen per day, or about 700 metric tons daily, amounting to around 260,000 tons annually.
Despite challenges, Iran pursues a hydrogen energy system, particularly in transportation. The country's hydrogen plan aims to leverage its natural gas reserves for production. Overcoming cost variations, especially in electrolysis, is a key challenge. Implementing the plan not only addresses environmental concerns but also positions hydrogen as a viable alternative in Iran's transportation sector.
In contrast, the GCC is strategically diversifying its economy and investing in renewable energy, including hydrogen, to reduce reliance on oil revenue. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman actively engage in green hydrogen production, with Saudi Arabia aiming for 2.9 million tons annually by 2030, the UAE aspiring to be a top 10 hydrogen producer by 2031, and Oman planning over 1 million tons by 2030, increasing to 8.5 million tons yearly by 2050. These nations aim for a significant role in the global green hydrogen economy, contributing to emission reduction and the transition to sustainable energy sources. Neighboring countries of Iran have also initiated their own long-term hydrogen plans with substantial investments and advanced technologies.
Iran risks setbacks in the global hydrogen market by prioritizing crisis management over long-term economic development. While still potentially exporting hydrogen, neighboring countries are reducing reliance on oil revenues, highlighting the need for Iran's strategic planning in the evolving energy landscape.
Concerns arise about Iran's historical reliance on crisis management in navigating the global energy transition. The establishment of a hydrogen working group by the National Iranian Oil Company is a step forward, but substantial efforts are crucial for organized planning and economic growth. The working group's effectiveness depends on developing a comprehensive plan, stressing the necessity of integrating hydrogen into Iran's overarching economic and energy strategy.
Iran has several obstacles in its efforts to produce hydrogen from the refining of oil, including technological, financial, and environmental ones. Using cutting-edge techniques like partial oxidation or steam methane reforming (SMR) presents issues with cost, efficiency, and environmental effect. The technological difficulty of ensuring hydrogen purity increases, necessitating large infrastructure expenditures in the face of budgetary restrictions.
Before conservative President Ebrahim Raisi took office in 2021, major film festivals in Europe and the United States, including those in Berlin, Cannes, and Chicago looked forward to the event to select some of the finest Iranian movies for their own events.
Until three years ago, no international film festival was perfect without an Iranian movie directed by an internationally renowned Iranian filmmaker. Things have now changed.
Iran's populist Culture Minister Mohammad Mehdi Esmaili even cautioned reporters not to use the words Festival Palace, and to use the revolutionary expression Festival House instead, as "Palace" was a place for taghooties (those who do not worship God). The word came back to the press from the darkest dungeons of the overtly fundamentalist and seemingly militant 1979 Islamic revolution.
The same Culture Minister tried earlier this week to lure a popular Iranian singer in Los Angels to return to Iran after four decades. This was of course a move to pacify a sulking nation to encourage them to take part in the upcoming elections. Minutes after the statement by the Culture Minister an Iranian lawyer warned the singer that he would be facing a 28-year jail sentence if he ever set foot in Iran again.
Iranian social media users, including a former presidential chief of staff, who can crack dark jokes about any serious matter, reminded the singer, Nasrollah Moin, that the Minister was right. He can always arrive at the Tehran international airport, but there is no guarantee he would be able to depart.
Film critics widely agree that the quality of Iranian cinema has declined in recent years. It's important to note that the deterioration in the film industry didn't solely occur during President Raisi's administration. The decline began during former President Hassan Rouhani's second term when Iranian filmmakers faced pressure from the IRGC and intelligence organizations. Even internationally acclaimed director Jafar Panahi received a lengthy prison sentence. The situation worsened after the 2022 protests.
At present, most Iranian films are produced by intelligence organizations and the IRGC, with a directive to promote official ideology. As a result, numerous uninspiring movies are being made, often featuring the same group of actors and filmmakers. Many other talents in the industry are no longer favored by the government, as some prominent figures, such as Mahnaz Afshar and Hamid Farrokh Nejad, have left Iran to join opposition groups
Some 106 Iranian movies are to be screened for the first time in this year's festival from February 1 to 11, during the Ten Days of Dawn, or the anniversary of the 1979 revolution. These movies are mainly directed by individuals hitherto unknown to Iranian film industry and movie-goers. They are well-connected individuals who can get hold of hefty government budgets to make these films.
However, a few like comedian Mehran Modiri and Soroush Sehhat and renowned cinematographer Mahmoud Kalari have also presented their films to the festival. The first two artists were reportedly barred from entering the Festival House to meet the formalities for screening their films and were branded as taghooties.
Meanwhile, asked why all the members of the festival's selection committee are men and there are no women among them, the festival's secretary, Mojtaba Amini, said selecting films is a tough job and women cannot do that, but he will make sure that a woman filmmaker is on the board of the jury. Interestingly, Amini was the producer of IRGC-funded TV series Gando that levelled many unfounded accusations against former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.
All of the members of the Selection Committee of the festival have been carefully chosen from among hardliners in Iran's film industry.
Tehran has tried to quash talk of trouble with Pakistan, but Pakistan's Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) has said it arrested a suspect in the 2019 assassination attempt on a top Pakistani cleric, saying the suspect is a "trained terrorist" who belongs to the Zainebiyoun Brigade, a militant group of Pakistani Shiites created by Iran to fight in Syria.
Pakistan’s CTD said that Syed Mohammad Mehdi was arrested in an operation at a bazaar in Karachi, accusing him of targeting clerics in the provincial capital and of working for Iranian intelligence.
This seems to be a signal by Islamabad that not everything is resolved with Iran, and the Pakistani government remains vigilant about any further actions by Tehran.
Similarly, Kurds in Iraq held a large protest rally on Monday to condemn Iran’s ballistic missile strikes on their capital Erbil a week ago that killed a Kurdish businessman.
Khuram Waris, who heads the CTD in Karachi, told Radio Mashaal that Mehdi is a Pakistani citizen who received training in a "neighboring country”, implicitly pointing the finger at Iran. He said:” He is a member of the Zainabiyoun Brigade. He was involved in many attacks, including the attack on Mufti Taqi Usmani in Karachi."
Usmani, a religious scholar and former top court judge in Pakistan, narrowly escaped an assassination attempt in Karachi in 2019. Two of Usmani's bodyguards were killed in the attack, for which no group claimed responsibility.
The IRGC’s January 16 attacks against Jaish al-Adl, a US designated terrorist group accused by Tehran of carrying out deadly attacks in Iran, were justified by Tehran as its "legitimate and legal right to deter national security threats."
Pakistan condemned the strike on its territory and responded on January 18 with air strikes against separatist groups allegedly hiding out on Iranian territory.
In Tehran, the government is trying to act as if it is business as usual, but the tension is palpable. Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said that while the recent attack on “terrorist bases” was due to what he called “an immediate necessity to deal with terrorists ready to operate”, suggesting an imminent attack had been thwarted, he stressed that relations between the two nations are “strong and fraternal”.
Addressing the media, he said: “Terrorism is a common threat of both sides, and Tehran and Islamabad emphasize on fighting it, and the recent action cannot create a disruption in the relations between the two countries.
But as Pakistan continues to claim the terror on its soil is backed by the Iranian government itself, the question remains as to how diplomatic relations move forward.
In a span of 24 hours, Iran’s IRGC launched missile and drone strikes on three neighboring countries, claiming ‘revenge’ for civilians and troops killed in the past few weeks. Having hit several locations in Syria and Iraqi Kurdistan Monday, Pakistan was the final country to feel the wrath of Iran’s Quds Forces.
Pakistan swiftly responded by a targeted assassination of IRGC Colonel Hossein-Ali Javdanfar, killed in a car near the Pakistan border. Two of his bodyguards were also killed.
The incident led to both Iraq and Pakistan withdrawing its ambassadors and Pakistan threatening to permanently close borders. The issue has also been raised to the Arab League which is set to hold an emergency meeting in the coming days or weeks.
The Sunni group, Jaish al-Adl, could just be the fan to the flames of a relationship which was never entirely on solid ground and with the latest attacks on Pakistan, look to face a troubled future.