Crisis Escalates As IRGC Condemns Killing Of Hamas Official

Iranian state television reported a first and then a second explosion at the cemetery in the southern city of Kerman during the ceremony held to mark the 2020 killing of the top IRGC commander in a US drone attack at Baghdad airport.

Iranian officials have made conflicting statements since the incident. The mayor of Kerman and some government-controlled media claimed that the explosions were due to gas blasts, while others said it was a suicide attack, and yet other officials said bombs were placed on the road to the cemetery.

Local media reported that the condition of some of those injured was critical, while one emergency medical staff member, who was rushing to the scene after the first explosion, was killed by the second blast.

The number of casualties, first reported as 20 dead climbed quickly, as local media put the latest number at 103 people killed and more than 170 injured in the incident. However, it remains unclear if all the casualties were due to the explosions or a stampede that reportedly followed the incidents.

The semi-official Nournews said soon after the incident that "several gas canisters exploded on the road leading to the cemetery and relevant authorities are monitoring the situation".

However, later reports spoke of four explosions and a hardliner member of parliament blamed Israel for what he said was a terror attack conducted with suicide belts. Semi-official media reported that two bombs were placed in separate bags.

In more than two decades at the head of the IRGC’s Quds forces, Soleimani managed to create a loose but effective coalition of forces spanning from Yemen to Lebanon, all with domestic interest but united in their enmity towards Israel and the US.

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Addressing concerns about efforts to discourage elections, Khamenei addressed supporters on Wednesday, saying, "Some individuals do not wish for the elections to take place, and they strive to make the people despaired, erode their trust, and pretend that elections are futile and inconsequential."

He called for actions against those attempting to “weaken public engagement in the country's administration”, which comes amid continued mass dissent in the wake of the 2022 uprising.

He claimed a "hostile movement" is seeking to undermine the electoral process, though it is estimated as little as 15 percent of voters will participate given the current with the status quo.

The ongoing purification campaign led by hardliners within the Paydari Party initiated earlier in the year to consolidate political power, resulted in dismissals and bans for numerous university professors, teachers, and artists.

The dominance of hardliners began in 2020 when the Guardian Council disqualified hundreds of individuals from running for parliament. In the 2021 presidential elections, serious contenders were barred, paving the way for Ebrahim Raisi's presidency.

As the March 1 elections approach, the absence of reformist and moderate groups due to disqualifications raises concerns about low voter turnout. Reports suggest that ultraconservatives may even welcome a low turnout.

While Khamenei expresses a desire for high voter turnout, the actions of his followers, particularly the hardliners, indicate a lack of intention to provide a fair chance to their rivals, the Reformists.

Reformist groups, largely excluded in the previous two elections, face challenges in mobilizing voters as many of their candidates have already been disqualified.

The Interior Ministry's discretionary disqualifications, coupled with the Guardian Council's vetting powers, further limit the scope for a diverse and competitive electoral landscape.

The meeting, which was the first of its kind since Raisi took office as Iran's President in 2021, was shunned by some Reformists who saw his maneuver as a move to distract the nation from the realities on the ground. However, some of them appreciated the opportunity to meet face to face with Raisi and convey their concerns ahead of the March 1 parliamentary elections.

Hardliners using the regime’s undemocratic candidate vetting scheme has already disqualified most Reformists and moderates from running in the election. This has diminished the already slim chance of having a large turnout by voters, who are uncertain that elections could lead to meaningful policy changes under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Iranian social media users and journalists also reacted negatively to Raisi’s apparent willingness to engage with insider political groups. Mostafa Faghihi, the editor of Entekhab News wrote in a tweeted that Raisi has clearly aligned himself with the hardliner Paydari group. "In your opinion, why should Raisi sit between the chairman of the central council of Paydari Party and the Interior Minister [who is also close to Paydari]? Interestingly, Raisi has said recently that his government has no candidate in the parliamentary elections. But it seems that he has done away with all reservations, and we should clearly see the indications of Paydari's influence in the government."

Another user who posted several photos of the meeting, wrote: "Did you ever see such a scene in the Rouhani administration?" And Iranian journalist Ehsan Bodaghi wrote: "This is not even a show of a political agreement. The minimum requirement for an agreement is holding free and fair elections. In that case, you do not need these pictures to prove that all political groups will take part in the elections."

The 150-minute-long meeting was attended by politicians from the left and right wings, but most of the 25 political figures who spoke or asked questions were from the reform camp. Mohammad Ali Abtahi, the former chief of staff of former President Mohammad Khatami wrote on Instagram: "I told Raisi he should acknowledge that the people are sulking with the government. I also told him that even all of us try to encourage the people to vote, our advice is not going to be effective and will not change social realities." 

Abtahi quoted Raisi as having said at the meeting that in his opinion all candidates who have registered should be allowed to run.

Opponents of the regime and true dissidents are already barred from political participation. Their place is usually in the courts, prisons or exile.

Meanwhile, Abtahi wrote that during the meeting Sadeq Mahsouli the leader of the Paydari Party said that 2009 Presidential election was the best election that was ever held in Iran. That was the disputed election that brought populist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power for a second term and led to months of protests all over Iran. Abtahi added that former government spokesman, reformist Ali Rabiei harshly responded to Mahsouli who had called the protests "sedition."

Abtahi said that during his speech, he suggested to Raisi to change his restrictive policy about social media and allow the parliament to have a say about key matters, such as foreign policy.

Meanwhile, according to Etemad online, reformist activist Javad Emam said in the meeting that organizing the meeting was meant to distract attention from the political realities in the Iranian society. "Without free, fair and competitive elections, such meetings are nothing more than shows, " Emam said. He added that the meeting will not have any impact on the elections. It was only meant to justify the government's policy of barring candidates. Such a meeting should have taken place before changing the provisions of the election law and barring many candidates, he said.

Emam further accused Raisi and his government of disappointing the people and causing young Iranians to lose faith in the electoral process. In conclusion, Emam called on the government to abolish the vetting process and respect the people's right to choose their representatives.

The action was part of a broader trend where Iranian regime opponents observed the anniversary of former IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani's killing as "Cutlet Day" on various social media platforms, referring to his mutilation in a US drone strike in 2020.

Iranian regime opponents and activists took to social media this month sending "Cutlet Day" viral, drawing a parallel to a popular Iranian dish consisting of ground beef and potatoes. 

The prosecutor of Bojnourd confirmed the arrest, stating that "insulting the martyrs is considered an insult to sanctities," the two top military men deified by the regime since their deaths. Like Soleimani, Mousavi, reportedly killed in an Israeli airstrike in Syria, played a pivotal role in fortifying Iran's proxy forces in the region.

The arrest aligns with a pattern of Iranian authorities cracking down on dissent. Earlier in January, a prominent chef and Instagram influencer, Navab Ebrahimi, faced detention for sharing a Persian cutlet recipe on the anniversary of Soleimani's death. Ebrahimi was released on bail after a few days, though the specific charges against him remained unclear.

The Iranian government's intensified response to dissent is evident, particularly in the aftermath of the September 2022 death in police custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini. Amini was arrested for allegedly improperly wearing a headscarf, fueling nationwide anger and prompting increased measures to suppress signs of dissent across the country amid mass protests.

Beheshti, known for his recent hunger strike in London in a bid to pressure the UK government to designate Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, said direct action is "the only language they understand”.

“Help us overthrow the government. Try to imagine what the Middle East would look like without the Iranian government,” he urged.

Speaking before the Israel Victory Caucus, which consists of Knesset members, security experts, and political leaders, Beheshti highlighted the pressing challenge to regional security posed by Iran, which last month was exposed for rapidly progressing its enrichment in the race towards nuclear weapons.

Since October 7 when Iran-backed Hamas invaded Israel, killing 1,200 mostly civilians and taking 240 or more hostage, attacks on both Israel and US facilities in the region have spiked. Iranian proxies in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria have been activated triggering the worst crisis in recent years.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated his calls this week to ensure Iran does not achieve nuclear capabilities while the country continues to fight Hamas in Gaza. Israeli strikes on Iranian linked facilities in the region also continue alongside the war against Hamas, including an alleged assassination of the regime's most senior military figure in Syria.

Beheshti said the Iranian government is at its weakest in 44 years in the wake of the 2022 uprising which has seen the strongest resistance to the government since the foundation of the Islamic Republic in 1979.

He urged Israel to recognize the potential support from approximately 80 million Iranians yearning for freedom and democracy.