Debate Intensifies Over Ex-President’s Role In Upcoming Iranian Elections
Three months before the controversial elections in Iran, discussions in Tehran are focused on the role of former President Hassan Rouhani and its potential impact.
Three months before the controversial elections in Iran, discussions in Tehran are focused on the role of former President Hassan Rouhani and its potential impact.
The upcoming vote on March 1 will determine a new parliament and members of the Assembly of Experts (AoE), responsible for selecting a Supreme Leader after the death of Ali Khamenei. However, the interior ministry, controlled by hardliners, has already disqualified numerous sitting lawmakers from seeking re-election, intensifying the controversy surrounding the restricted elections.
Although the official results of the vetting of the AoE candidates are not yet out, Rouhani's supporters seem to be certain about the endorsement of his qualifications, while his hardliner opponents would like to see him barred. Some others have gone out of their ways to spread fake news about his disqualification or even his death on social media.
Rouhani's recent comments about the elections has convinced many political observers that he is adamant to play a key role in the upcoming elections. The former president known as a pragmatist opposed to hardliners argued that the composition of the next AoE is important because it will have do decide about Supreme Leader’s succession.
Rouhani's comments triggered a series of harsh reactions on the part of hardline media including the Kayhan, which is close to Khamenei's office, and Raja News linked to ultraconservative Paydari Party, i.e., Rouhani's arch opponent.
The website wrote that even if all the moderate and pro-reform candidates in parliamentary and AoE elections are disqualified, still approval of Rouhani’s candidacy will lead to a bipolar situation in the elections. No other figure in the moderate camp can usher likeminded candidates into the parliament or the Assembly of Experts, the website wrote, adding that nonetheless, it is difficult to predict the Guardian Council's decision about Rouhani's qualifications.
To shed light on the importance of Rouhani as a charismatic figure in the moderates' camp, Mahmoud Alizadeh Tabatabaei, a spokesman for the Executives of Construction Party, the leading moderate and pro-reform party has said that the centrist group will support the list of candidates that Rouhani would back. This is a centrist party with Rouhani's closest allies and technocrats such as Mohammad Bagher Nobakht and Es'haq Jahangiri at the helm.
It is the first time that between the two centrist parties, both created by former President Akbar Rafsanjani's aides, Rouhani’s Moderation and Development party will take the lead and the Executives of Construction will follow.
Nevertheless, Alizadeh suggested that the entrenched core of regime insiders is unlikely to permit the emergence of a robust minority faction in the upcoming parliament. He contended that the hardliners have effectively strengthened their control to the extent that even some within their own ranks may struggle to secure seats in the next parliamentary session and assembly.
Meanwhile, pro-reform daily Arman-e Melli warned hardliners in a commentary on Monday that "disqualifying Rouhani will be costly for you, not for him." The daily added: "You cannot send him to the country's political parking area."
Arman-e Melli reported that hardliners are actively seeking Rouhani's disqualification, employing mosques, podiums, and meetings to rally against him, aiming to erase him from the Iranian political landscape. They are determined to convey to Rouhani that his era of political influence is over, urging him to retreat into isolation at home.
Conversely, Rouydad24 highlighted that Hassan Rouhani stands out as the most recognizable candidate for the Assembly of Experts elections, surpassing other candidates in terms of public familiarity. Despite facing criticism, especially for perceived shortcomings in controlling economic challenges, his strong presence on social media remains a significant advantage. The platform noted that this popularity on social media could enhance his chances of securing public support.
Nevertheless, asserting that the people will have the decisive influence in Iranian elections remains challenging.
The commander of the Revolutionary Guard’s navy, Alireza Tangsiri, announced on Tuesday that “We have photos and films about all their movements,” referring to the US naval task force, headed by the aircraft carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower, that has entered the Persian Gulf.
In an age of satellites and surveillance drones, this is a simplistic statement, to say the least, and not clear what it intends to prove. But this is not the only such statement in recent weeks. Iranian commanders have been making claims of military prowess and deploying new weapons systems since the Gaza war broke out and the US deployed two naval strike forces in the region.
The commander of Iran’s aerospace force, Gen. Amir-Ali Hajizadeh declared on November 13 that “Iran is currently at the pinnacle of its power and cannot be threatened.” He went on to say the United States was engaging in diplomacy with Iran using a “language of requests and pleas” amid attacks by Iranian proxy groups on American bases in the region.
While officials try to claim that they were not aware of the October 7 Hamas attack and have nothing to do with strikes by militant groups on US bases, they also try to present these as success to domestic audiences.
The Islamic Republic has found itself in a precarious situation since the October 7 Hamas terror attack, as Israel responded with overwhelming force in Gaza. After years of propaganda about the readiness of the regime to support war against “the Zionist enemy,” suddenly the rulers in Tehran found themselves in a situation to prove their threats. However, they chose not to get directly involved in the war. Similarly, Hezbollah, Tehran’s crown jewel proxy force, also chose not to engage in a full war with Israel.
Many Iranians on social media began to ridicule officials, saying that they should go to Gaza and fight, while Hamas was being pummeled by the Israelis.
In response, a throng of IRGC officers and officials have made triumphant statements that Israel is all but defeated and is taking its last breath. They have praised Hamas for emulating the spirit of the Islamic Republic in resisting Israel and the United States.
Iran’s minister of defense, Mohammad-Reza Ashtiani on Monday declared that Iran has complete dominance in the region, and that is the reason the United States blames Tehran for every event. “The Americans attribute any event to us because they know that Iran has dominance, and it is the Islamic Republic of Iran that takes the lead in the region."
Mojtaba Abtahi an official in charge of Gaza issues, appearing on state television, insisted that Hamas is in a strong position and added, “With the Hamas attack on Israel, a new world has been created.” He claimed that the people of Gaza are “happy” about current conditions and “Have a lot of hope about the future.”
But core loyalists also make strange declarations about other issues. A senior cleric was quoted on Monday as saying that people should get used to living on less, and that will solve the country’s economic crisis. "If we want to address the major economic challenges of the country, we need to instill a culture of contentment and satisfaction in the hearts and minds of individuals,” Ayatollah Mohammad-Reza Naseri declared. He is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s representative in Yazd province. Citizens, whose living standards have drastically declined in the past five years, view such declaration with contempt, knowing that officials do not need to worry about putting food on the table.
Washington and its European allies did not move to censure Iran at the critical meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna from November 20 to 24 while Tehran is enriching uranium at levels with no non-military use and is stockpiling more of it.
After the previous round of the 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors meeting in September, the Islamic Republic ejected one-third of the inspectors with expertise in uranium enrichment. And each time the board issued resolutions as the IAEA decided it is “essential and urgent” that Iran act to fulfil its legal obligations and clarify all outstanding safeguards issues without delay, Iran responded by augmenting activities.
Iran has steadily leveled up its nuclear game since 2021, developing more plants, enriching more uranium at higher levels, stockpiling more, and simultaneously eroding IAEA monitoring. The latest IAEA report said Iran has enough uranium enriched to up to 60% for three atom bombs and is still stonewalling the agency on key issues, with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi highlighting that “significant safeguards issues remain outstanding" in Iran’s nuclear program. Experts say analyzing IAEA recent reports proves that Iran now has enough enriched uranium to produce weapons-grade uranium (WGU) for one nuclear weapon in as little as seven days and up to 12 nuclear weapons in five months.
"If Iran fails to implement the essential and urgent actions contained in the November 2022 Resolution and the 4th March Joint Statement in full, the Board will have to be prepared to take further action in support of the (IAEA) Secretariat to hold Iran accountable in the future, including the possibility of a resolution," Britain, France, Germany -- the so-called E3 -- and the US warned in September. Since the last resolution last November, the West has refrained from formally condemning Tehran's progress or setting a deadline for Iran to come into compliance with a five-year IAEA investigation into Iran's violations of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Andrea Stricker, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), has called on the West to push back Iran’s nuclear advances, asking, “How many inspectors must Iran eject and how many nuclear weapons’ worth of uranium will Tehran amass before the West stands up to the regime? The current approach ensures Iran can stroll to nuclear weapons at a time of its choosing.”
Pointing out Iran’s destabilizing activities, Anthony Ruggiero, Senior Director of FDD’s Nonproliferation Program said, “Tehran funds and supports proxies attacking Israel and is on the threshold of nuclear weapons. President Biden should call for a special IAEA board meeting to censure Iran and support the IAEA’s director general. Washington must fully implement US sanctions and respond to Tehran’s proxies attacking US troops by targeting Iranian personnel responsible for the attacks.”
There is bipartisan consensus at US Congress that a nuclear Iran is unacceptable, but no measure did manage to slow down Tehran’s nuclear drive.
It seems that some of world leaders have come to terms with a nuclear Iran and its hypothetical atomic bombs, and apparently a dozen more states that are at the verge of going nuclear. During the World Nuclear Exhibition in Paris on Tuesday, Grossi said, "We already have 10 countries which have entered the decision phase (to build nuclear power plants) and 17 others which are in the evaluation process. There will be a dozen or 13 (new) nuclear countries within a few years.” Producing electricity also gave birth to Iran’s nuclear program.