IRGC Says It Can Strike Haifa With Missiles, If Ordered

China is connected to Southeast and South Asia, Central Asia, the Pacific Ocean, Africa, and Europe through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive global infrastructural project. With the purpose of strengthening regional integration, expanding trade, and supporting economic growth, it is centered around five key goals: policy coordination, facility connectivity, unhindered commerce, financial integration, and people-to-people bonds.

Beijing held the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, marking the BRI's 10th anniversary, on October 17–18, 2023. The BRI Forum attracted international leaders of state and government, along with their delegations. As Xi Jinping's major foreign policy program reaches its second decade, over 20 heads of state, mostly from the Global South, convened to debate it. The gathering was smaller than in the past, but it still showed the initiative's importance in reshaping the world's political and economic landscapes.

China investment on BRI

China started the $1-trillion Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, with the participation of about 150 countries.

China itself, has directed $392 billion investments toward BRI, notably in Middle Eastern and Arab countries. However, it's crucial to emphasize the limited investments in Iran, which casts doubts on the implementation of the 25-year strategic partnership agreement between China and Iran, that Tehran has advertised as a major foreign policy achievement. The outcome and influence of this agreement on Chinese investments in Iran, especially in sectors as critical as infrastructure and energy, remain uncertain. The intricacies of this partnership will undoubtedly shape the geopolitical and economic landscape of the region.

According to data from the American Enterprise Institute, China's overseas investments from 2013 to 2023 amounted to a substantial $942 billion, of which $392 billion was related to BRI.

It has only signed two investment agreements with Iran during 2013-2023, of which one of them was canceled in 2018, when the United States left the JCPOA nuclear agreement with Iran.

One of the deals was investing in Iran’s South Pars gas field’s phase 11, which the Chinese CNPC energy company had committed in 2016 to invest $600 million but dropped the project in 2018.

The second scheme was the Gohardasht Steel project, which Chinese MMC had signed an agreement in 2014 to invest $350 million.

In contrast, Chinese enterprises have secured sizable contracts for investment and development with other regional nations. For instance, they have inked agreements with Saudi Arabia totaling up to $52 billion, with over $13 billion allocated for investment contracts.

Iran remains out of transport corridors

Iran’s neighbor Iraq started a $17-billion road and rail project to link Asia and Europe in May 2023, while the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor deal was signed in September 2023.

During last years, China has developed huge transport projects in Pakistan, while Central Asia-Caucasus-Turkey became the major land route for transportation cargoes in East-West direction.

Therefore Iran remained out of all transit projects in the region.

For instance, Azerbaijan has transited 7.5 million tons of foreign cargoes in 2022 through railroads - about 3.5 times more than Iran- of which 2.9 million tons was from East to West direction (China- Europe), about 15% more than 2021.

The country also expanded north-west (Russia-Turkey) and north-south (Russia-Iran) railroad transit routes. Its rail transportation from these routes increased 45% year-on-year as well.

Azerbaijan has also developed road and marine cargo capacities. Its marine cargo transit increased by 41% in 2022.

It also opened the Baku-Russia highway in October 2023. There is another transit road, inaugurated several years ago, connecting Baku to Astara in Iran.

Only using Azerbaijani rail lines, the transportation of products between Russia and Iran last year showed a phenomenal surge of 90%, reaching 1.7 million tons. Azerbaijan plans to increase cargo transit through North-East to 15 million tons annually via railroad, roads and the Caspian Sea.

Based on Iranian customs statistics, 57% of Iran's exports to Russia pass through Azerbaijani soil, while 42% traverse the Caspian Sea, mostly by Azerbaijani shipping lines.

Contributors:

Dr Umud Shokri, Energy Strategist

Umud Najjari, head of Iran news service at Azeri-Press Agency

The designation comes in the midst of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel and discussions surrounding US funding for allies involved in the two wars.

In a recent interview with Fox News, McConnell, A Republican from Kentucky, described the "axis of evil" consisting of China, Russia, and Iran as an immediate threat.

"You have to respond to conditions that actually exist that are a threat to the United States. The Iranians are a threat to us as well. And so, this is an emergency. It’s an emergency that we step up and deal with this axis of evil – China, Russia, Iran – because it’s an immediate threat to the United States," McConnell said.

"In many ways the world is more endangered today than it has been in my lifetime," McConnell said, recalling that unlike when the Berlin Wall fell, the world faces a "big power competition" coinciding with the terrorism threats in the Middle East and culminating in Israel's war against Iran-backed Hamas terrorists who on October 7 declared war on Israel.

He said that the "disastrous" withdrawal from Afghanistan gave a "green light of " to Putin's invasion of Ukraine and now, as the Middle East awaits the wrath of Iran's proxies, he asked "is America going to lead?".

Calling out Iran as "the principal sponsor of terrorism", supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine and now, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, whose attacks have stepped up massively in recent days into Israel's northern border, he said the threat is spreading globally.

US Senator Lindsey Graham during a visit to Israel on Sunday accused Iran of involvement in the October 7 Hamas attack and warned that any escalation could exact a cost from Tehran.

"We're here today to tell Iran: 'We're watching you. If this war grows, it's coming to your backyard,'" Graham starkly warned.

Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both propped up by the regime in Iran have already launched limited attacks against Israel.

"There's a likelihood of escalation by Iranian proxies against our forces," Blinken cautioned in an NBC interview. "We're taking steps to make sure that we can effectively defend our people and respond decisively if we need to."

Blinken's alert came as the Pentagon announced measures to tackle growing threats from Iran proxies in the region, including the deployment of a new warship and anti-missiles systems.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Saturday that he had made these decisions after detailed discussions with President Joe Biden, and aiming to bolster regional deterrence, enhance US force protections, and contribute to the defense of Israel.

Last week a squadron of B1b Lancer strategic bombers were moved from their Texas base to the Fairford base in Britain. The bombers can carry 50 tons of bombs each and have enough range from Britain to Lebanon/Iran and back.

In the week gone by, Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both supported by the regime in Iran, have entered the war theater, albeit on a limited scale and with no official declaration of war.

The heightened tension and the attacks on US forces by emboldened Iran-backed militants caused the US embassy in Baghdad to order the evacuation of non-essential personnel after recent attacks by Iran’s proxy forces across the Middle East, reports Fox News.

On Sunday, one Israeli soldier was killed in a local IDF raid into Gaza. Several others were injured. The operation was reportedly conducted to locate missing individuals and dismantle Hamas infrastructure but met ‘unexpected resistance.’

Only a day prior, Iran's intelligence chief had issued a warning, suggesting potential reprisals against the US and its allies and unconfirmed reports emerged that IRGC Quds Force Commander Ismail Qaani traveled to Syria to “supervise” the Iran-backed armed groups along the Syrian border with Israel.

Israel has amassed its forces on the border with Gaza but has so far refrained from a full-on ground invasion, apparently heeding the Biden administration’s advice.

Critics of President Biden say he is to blame (partly at least) for the critical situation in the Middle East, pointing, especially, to his lenient approach towards the regime in Iran.

John Ratcliffe, former Director of National Intelligence, accused the Biden administration of ignoring the ‘intelligence’.

“Throughout 2020, Iranian military and political leaders were telling us as we listened to their conversations, we’re broke, we can’t afford to fund Hamas, we can’t afford to fund Hezbollah,” Ratcliff said in an interview with Fox News, “essentially saying that the maximum pressure campaign of the Trump administration was working, and Iran was less dangerous than they had been at any point in time.”

Ratcliffe then suggested that all the intelligence had been shared with the Biden administration ‘as it came into office.

Amid the escalation, diplomatic and humanitarian efforts are gaining momentum. President Biden held critical discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, underlining the need for a sustained flow of humanitarian assistance into Gaza and the release of hostages held by Hamas, including US citizens, before a land invasion.

However, aid agencies have expressed concerns about the inadequacy of the humanitarian aid reaching Gaza, with the limited number of trucks permitted into the region falling far short of the pressing need for essential supplies, including food, fuel, and medical resources.

Since October 7, when Hamas special forces attacked Israel, at least 1400 Israelis and 4500 Palestinians have been killed, many more injured and displaced.

The move comes in the wake of allegations of Tehran's complicity in the war waged by Iran-backed proxy Hamas against Israel on October 7. In one day, thousands of Hamas terrorists brutally massacred at least 1,400 civilians in Israel, including babies and elderly, and at least 212 hostages from over 40 nationalities were abducted into Gaza.

The Biden administration has publicly urged its allies, including the UK, to join efforts in designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization due to its alleged involvement in terrorism on a global scale. The IRGC has been banned in the United States since 2019.

Matthew Miller, the spokesperson for the US State Department, said, "We absolutely think that other countries should designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization. It’s a position that we’ve made clear a number of times."

The move adds to the mounting pressure within the UK to proscribe the IRGC, as several members of the Conservative Party have publicly called for action. Additionally, Robin Simcox, the Government's counter-extremism tsar, described the continued legality of membership and support for the group as "unsustainable."

The US firmly believes that the IRGC is involved in numerous global attacks and top UK ministers and security officials such as the head of MI5, have reiterated the dangers posed by the Islamic Republic on British soil.

The IRGC was initially established as a custodian of Iran's 1979 revolution's ideological principles. Over time, it has transformed into a significant force, encompassing military, political, and economic aspects within the country.

According to the center, housing prices in Tehran have risen 84 percent since last year, a figure so big that it may be the reason behind the government’s reluctance to publish the data. The data blackout deteriorated the already murky situation of the capital’s housing market.

The newly released data indicate that the average price per square meter of housing in Tehran has increased 20-fold in the past eight years. In 2015, the average price was about 40 million rials, and now it is about 800 million rials (about $1,600 in today’s exchange rate). Back in 2015, the dollar was traded at about 30,000 rials, meaning that the average price per square meter was about $1,200. 

Buying property for Iranian wage-earners has become virtually impossible with an average monthly salary of about $200. The rents have also increased across Iran so drastically that currently more than half of a household's income will be spent on rent. In Tehran, the proportion is even more alarming, with workers spending an astounding 100 percent of their wages on housing expenses. The minimum wage for a married worker with all benefits hovers just above $180 per month, while the minimum cost of food for an average three-person household is at least $140 to $160.

Iran’s leading economic newspaper Donyaye Eghtesad (World of Economy) reported Sunday that considering the inflation rate and the government's failure to actualize its announced economic plans, the country’s budget deficit will further increase this year, as is the case in Iran every fiscal year. The daily added that in the previous year, the government covered part of the budget deficit by borrowing from banks, raising government's debts to the banks by 150 percent. 

Whenever the government seeks loans from banks, it pushes the Central Bank of Iran to print more money to supply the funds. As a result of the increasing money supply, the rial has fallen 12-fold in the past five years and has halved in value in the past one year. It is now trading around 500,000 to one US dollar.

Abdolnasser Hemmati, the former governor of Iran's central bank who is among the most outspoken critics of the current administration, said Sunday that macroeconomic indicators prove that the country’s economic woes stem from a lack of proper governance and financial policies over the past three decades. 

Bemoaning the country’s meager annual growth rate, the chief banker under former president Hassan Rouhani said "investment and efficiency" are among the main influential factors in economic growth. He claimed that ‘efficiency’ is a term only used on paper in government’s five-year development plans that never materializes. 

Additionally, Bahram Shakouri, a member of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce, also criticized the administration of President Ebrahim Raisi for its policies regarding attracting investment. He stated, “When domestic investors are disappointed, how can we expect foreign capital owners to be willing to invest in the country?" adding that there is no investment security in Iran until the country improves its relations with the international community and connects its banking system to the world. 

Earlier in the month, the deputy chief of the Central Bank of Iran, Mohamamd Shirijian, claimed that Iran's GDP grew by 4% in 2022, and the growth rate in Q1 and Q2 of 2023 increased 5.3 and 6.2 percent, respectively. The claims seem to contradict a report by reformist daily Ham-Mihan also in October that forecast a budget deficit twice as big as the figure in the previous year. The paper said if the country’s revenues in the second half of the Iranian year (which ends in March 2024) mirror the trend in the first six months, the budget deficit would significantly worsen in comparison with last year.

It is very difficult to judge the veracity of the Central Bank's optimistic claim, given the lack of any positive movement in Iran's currency markets or the nearly 50-percent annual inflation rate. The current government dominated by hardliners is notorious for making outlandish claims of economic success.

Against the backdrop of all its economic hardships, the regime has been spending heavily on the development of its drone and missile technology and gives hundreds of millions of dollars per yet to its proxy militia groups, such as Hamas that has rained thousands of rockets on Israel since its multi-thronged operation earlier this month in spite of its people in Gaza unable to eat and drink.

Economist Parviz Jahed said Saturday that 45 million of Iran’s 88 million population live in poverty, another reason that justifies Iranians to chant "Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, I sacrifice my life for Iran" during their anti-government protests, showing the frustration with the regime’s allocation of resources.