Israel Warns Of Military Action Against Iran If Hezbollah Joins War

Condemning Israel for what he called ‘genocide in Gaza’, Esmaeil Khatib on Saturday called the October 7 operation the “most complex and most effective” operation by the ‘resistance front’.

Khatib’s rhetoric come amid deep concerns that the conflict between Israel and Hamas would escalate into a full-blown regional war involving proxies of the Islamic Republic –which regime officials call the ‘resistance front.’

Unconfirmed reports emerged Saturday that the IRGC Quds Force Commander Ismail Qaani has traveled to Syria to “supervise” the Iran-backed armed groups along the Syrian border with Israel.

Official and state-affiliated media have not confirmed nor denied this report –which, if true, could be read as a sign of imminent escalation or a bluff of that.

In the week gone by, Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both supported by Iran, have entered the war theater, albeit on a limited scale and with no official declaration of war.

Hezbollah’s shelling of northern Israel has forced the preemptive evacuation of around 20,000 people from border areas. Israel has bombarded Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon daily, killing 19 militants to date, per Al Jazeera English.

On Saturday, Hezbollah’s number 2, Naim Qassem threatened Israelwith an augmented involvement in the conflict.

“Let's be clear,” Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary General said, “as events unfold, if something comes up that calls for greater intervention by us, we will do so,” implying that a ground invasion of Gaza would take the Iran-backed group to its next level of engagement.

On the Israeli side, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Saturday “Hezbollah has decided to participate in the fighting, we are exacting a heavy price from it.”

As the conflict deepens and broadens, so do diplomatic and humanitarian efforts to mitigate the damage of war and prevent a catastrophic outcome.

Egypt hosted a major peace summit Saturday, where regional leaders and high-ranking officials from western powers met to discuss ways to de-escalate the Hamas-Israel war.

The summit coincided with a temporary opening of the Rafah crossing (from Egypt to Gaza), allowing vital aid to get into the enclave.

On Saturday, five UN agencies expressed concern about the worsening conditions in Gaza and called for a humanitarian ceasefire.

Jordan's King Abdullah II criticized Israel's siege and bombardment of Gaza, calling it ‘collective punishment’ and a "war crime." Jordan is a close US ally and has had good relations with Israel for almost three decades. King Abdullah’s stance signals a growing unease with the ongoing conflict in the region.

The World Food Programme (WFP), the World Health Organization (WHO), the UN's Development Programme (UNDP), the UN’s Population Fund (UNFPA) and its International Children's Emergency Fund (Unicef) said in a statement: “Gaza was a desperate humanitarian situation before the most recent hostilities. It is now catastrophic”.

The Biden administration now finds itself in an unenviable position: pressured from the international community to call for a ceasefire and pushed at home by those wanting to see a tougher stance.

And at the heart of Biden’s problems lies the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The regime in Iran holds some leverage through its armed proxies across the region, which makes Biden hesitant in his approach towards Iran. On the other hand, Republican lawmakers have been hammering Biden for many months, especially since the exposure of an Iran influence network and the $6 billion ransom to free five Iranian-American hostages held in Tehran.

The US proposed a draft UN Security Council resolution on Saturday that demands Iran stop exporting arms to "militias and terrorist groups threatening peace and security across the region” including Hamas, according to the draft text seen by Reuters.

Some sources reported that the sealing of the businesses occurred earlier in the week, purportedly "due to the closure on Baha'i religious holidays." Moreover, there is an ongoing concern that additional Baha'i-owned businesses in the city may also face similar actions.

The officials in Gorgan sealed the businesses "without prior notice" and, notably, have not provided responses to inquiries made by Baha'i citizens who visited the related government department on Saturday to seek clarification on the matter.

The incident sheds light on the consistent challenges faced by Baha'i citizens in Iran. The 1979 constitution of the Islamic Republic recognizes only Islam, Christianity, Judaism, and Zoroastrianism. The Baha'i faith is not officially recognized, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has previously labeled it as a cult. In 2018, he issued a religious fatwa prohibiting contact, including business dealings, with Baha'i followers.

Hundreds of Baha'i community members have been jailed and scores charged with espionage and some have been executed over the years.

Iran is home to an estimated 300,000 Baha'is, and they often report systematic violations of their rights, including harassment, displacement from their homes and businesses, and discrimination in terms of access to government employment and higher education.

The unconfirmed attack, carried out using a combination of drones and rockets, seemingly targeted American military personnel stationed at the base, as reported by Iran-affiliated Al Mayadeen news network.

Washington and official Iraqi sources have not reported any attack taking place on Saturday.

Simultaneously, another military base housing US forces near Baghdad's international airport also faced rocket attacks, Al Mayadeen added.

Iran-backed Islamic Resistance of Iraq has claimed responsibility for the attack, according to Fars, emphasizing that it was executed with “precision, hitting its intended targets.”

There were already attacks in recent days against US bases in both Iraq and Syria.

The alleged attack follows earlier warnings from Iraqi militants aligned with Iran against potential US intervention in support of Israel during the conflict with Hamas in Gaza. In the past 48 hours, this marks the fifth attack on Iraqi military bases hosting US forces.

The United States maintains approximately 2,500 troops in Iraq and an additional 900 in Syria. The troops are primarily engaged in advising and assisting local forces in the fight against the Islamic State, which seized significant territory in both countries in 2014.

Ain al-Asad airbase, the target of the attack, is situated in the western Anbar province of Iraq.

“The Secretariat removed on 19 October 2023 from the Security Council website the list of 23 individuals and 61 entities subject to the aforementioned restrictive measures,” read the UN letter, terminating all provisions of Annex B of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 that prohibited activities such as development, tests, military employment, and others. The resolution endorsed Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) with P5+1 (the five permanent members of the Council -- China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, plus Germany).

“All it takes is one letter” to the UN Security Council by parties of the JCPOA to keep checks and balances on Iran’s drones and missiles, Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at US-based think-tank the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) tells Iran International.

The hypothetical letter would start a 30-day clock for a different party to put forward a resolution to prove Iran’s compliance with the defunct deal signed with P5+1 (the five permanent members of the Council -- China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, plus Germany). If the evidence for Iran’s non-compliance is clear, a snapback mechanism would crumble the foundations of UNSCR 2231 resolution, practically end the JCPOA and restore six resolutions imposed on Iran from 2006 to 2010 as well as all their prohibitions and penalties.

The US and nearly 50 other countries dusted off a 20-year-old program on weapons of mass destruction as well as issuing further missiles-related sanctions on Iran and the three European parties of the JCPOA, the so-called E3, announced in September that they would keep their sanctions in place. But no letter for a snapback.

Taleblu says unless Iran starts stockpiling weapons-grade uranium, these countries will not pursue a snapback mechanism. “Despite the recently lapsed UN prohibitions on Iranian missile testing and transfers, snapback still remains an option and should be considered an option. Legally under UN Security Council resolution 2231, snapback will remain an option until the fall of 2025. That means that the US or the E3 can still snap back and restore older multilateral penalties on Iran’s nuclear, missile and military program. And yes, all it takes is a letter from one of these JCPOA participants to the president of the UN Secretary Council and to run a 30-day clock,” Taleblu added.

On the Termination Day of the JCPOA, which will occur 10 years after Adoption Day (i.e. in 2025), the remaining EU measures will be terminated, the UNSC will conclude consideration of the Iran nuclear issue and UNSC resolution 2231 (2015) will be terminated.

Now that the prohibitions are lifted, Iran can now make money legally from its missile and drone sales and then can use the profits to finance its militant and terror proxies in the Middle East. The more chaos and destruction across Eurasia and perhaps Africa, the more Iran can find markets for its products. It can look for new buyers, who no longer face international consequences for their arms trade with Iran.

According to Taleblu, one of the more imminent perils is Iran selling ballistic missiles and related long-range strike technologies to Russia. Tehran has been providing President Vladimir Putin with a platter of miscellaneous drones, but not ballistic missiles. Russia has grown close to Iran since invading Ukraine in February 2022 and would likely use the easier flow of missiles to facilitate its invasion. Many of the hundreds of one-way attack drones it has used to bomb Ukraine in the last year were Iranian made.

“It is absolutely true that Iran did violate even arms transfer prohibitions prior to them expiring in 2020, however, thus far Iran has not given ballistic missiles to Russia,” he said, arguing that Iran waited for these US measures to end so that it can trade its missiles in broad daylight.“It is my contention that Iran was waiting for these international prohibitions to lapse to more seriously consider supplying Russia with ballistic missiles. Iran wants some of its arms transfers to not be penalized by the West and considered legal,” Taleblu said.

In addition to Russia, Iran will try to sell its missiles and drones to all its anti-West allies. Taleblu believes Iran’s leftist allies in the Americas as well as new Asian markets may be the prospective destinations of Iran’s drones and missiles.

In terms of customers for Iran’s long-range missiles or drones, “Venezuela is a growing industry.” He added that Bolivia is also a potential buyer while Belarus also offers a possible niche market. “The most acute and the most dangerous” remains the sale of Iran’s close-range ballistic missiles to Russia to help the invasion of Ukraine. “That will be a game changer and a record breaker for the history of Iranian arms proliferation as well as a game changer in the Russo-Iranian relationship.”

“The Islamic republic is an ideological actor committed to the export of the revolution, committed to keep developing a nuclear weapon, committed to protecting and defending its proxies and partners through illicit arms exports. This is a fact. Legal, political, normative and international prohibitions can hinder or name and shame it, but there is no such thing as a magic bullet.”

“Snapback matters because it sets a multilateral and international legal baseline for pressure against Iran.”

Media in Tehran reported that Hassan Norouzi, an influential lawmaker, was asked how Iran is planning to play a role in the war. He was quoted as responding that “So far, resistance forces in Palestine, Syria and Iraq are sufficient, but if the situation becomes critical and we are asked [for assistance], it is possible that we would go to war against Israel to support the resistance.”

Iran refers to Palestinian and other militant groups in the region that receive support from Tehran and act on its behalf, as the “Axis of resistance.”

Asked about what Iran would do if the United States entered the conflict, he replied, "The United States does not have the audacity to enter directly. If it does, it will face difficult conditions. Even if it attacks, the Middle East and Western Asia's resistance forces have the capability to counter. It's also not unlikely that we could close the Strait of Hormuz. If America directly aids Israel in a war, we will close the Strait of Hormuz."

Iran foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian who was visiting Lebanon last week threatened a wider war if attacks continued against Hamas. "The continuation of war crimes against Palestine and Gaza will receive a response from the rest of the axis. And naturally, the Zionist entity and its supporters will be responsible for the consequences,” he stated.

The Iranian regime so far has celebrated Hams’ October 7 brutal attack on Israel that resulted in the killing of about 1,400 people, but has taken no direct military action to support Hamas.