Expert Warns of Potential Devastation As Iran Faces Severe Quake Risk

Director Wray made the remarks during a presentation addressing prominent foreign and domestic threats to the United States at the International Spy Museum in Washington DC, on Thursday.

As reported by AP, Director Wray referenced a significant Iranian plot that unfolded in 2021, involving a foiled attempt to assassinate former National Security Adviser John Bolton. The motive behind this plot was purportedly retaliation for the US drone strike that had targeted Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani.

Additionally, Wray highlighted a cyber-attack on Boston's Children's Hospital orchestrated by Tehran in 2022 and Iran's covert influence campaign during the 2020 US presidential election.

He emphasized, "That's all on top of constantly trying to evade international sanctions and being the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism. So if that's not enough to convince people that this is a serious threat, I don't know what is."

On the domestic front, Wray underscored the FBI's elevation of racially-motivated violent extremism to a national threat priority in 2019, aligning it with the threat level posed by ISIS. More recently, the FBI has intensified its focus on anti-government and anti-authority violent extremism, spanning from militia groups to anarchist violent extremists.

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An Iranian transport aircraft recently departed from the closed Simferopol airport in Crimea, raising questions about the nature of Iranian involvement in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The aircraft, the IL-76TD owned by Pouya Air, took off from Simferopol at 17:09 local time, having arrived in Crimea just two hours prior. Simferopol airport has been closed for civilian air travel since the commencement of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. The development was reported by Flightradar24, a prominent air travel tracking service. 

Pouya Airlines has dismissed reports about the flight in the Crimean Peninsula to assist Russian forces as "pure fabrication." The airline stated that the aircraft had been parked at Mehrabad Airport for the past 48 hours.

Ukrainian military sources have previously alleged that Russian forces stationed in Crimea have been utilizing the Chauda training ground to launch Iranian-made Shahed-136/131 drones into Ukrainian territory. However, there is no confirmed information regarding the presence of Iranian personnel assisting Russian military operations during these drone launches.

It is noteworthy that Russia began employing Iranian-produced Shahed drones for attacks deep within Ukrainian territory the previous year. These so-called kamikaze unmanned drones possess the capability to operate without the need for a conventional runway, detonating upon impact.

Iran has publicly acknowledged sending drones to Russia but has maintained that these deliveries occurred prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Moscow, on the other hand, has consistently denied employing Iranian drones in Ukrainian conflicts. Nonetheless, Ukraine has repeatedly reported the consistent bombardment from Iranian drones in Russian hands.

According to a report by Iran’s Labor News Agency, when considering minimum living standards, the cost of living has surged to 194 million rials, equivalent to approximately $400 per month. However, when factoring in housing expenses, particularly in Tehran, the cost of living exceeds a daunting 230 million rials, approximately $460 monthly.

Major industrial cities such as Mashhad, Esfahan, and Tabriz also witness high costs of living ranging from 200 to 220 million rials per month.

Currently the minimum wage in Iran is about $150 a month and the average income of people is between $150 to $250. Key workers remain at the bottom of the pay scale. Iran's Teachers' Association recently said that a third of the country's educators earn less than $200 a month, meaning many are fleeing for work abroad.

One of the primary contributors to Iran's economic turmoil is the drastic depreciation of its currency, the rial. Just over a year ago, the rial was trading at approximately 300,000 to the US dollar. However, in early May, it plummeted to as low as 550,000 rials to the dollar, and currently hovers around 490,000 rials to the dollar. This catastrophic devaluation of the rial directly reflects the nation's inflationary crisis.

Iran heavily relies on imports for essentials like food, animal feed, medicines, raw materials, and finished goods. As the local currency continues to lose value, the cost of imports escalates, ultimately leading to higher prices for consumers. This, in turn, places an additional burden on Iranian households already grappling with soaring living costs.

The British Embassy in Iran stirred social media discussions earlier this week when it shared a video interview with the British envoy in which he engaged in a casual and friendly conversation in Persian. During short questions and answers published as an Instagram post, Shercliff expressed his views on various cultural, social, historical, and tourism-related aspects of Iran.

In addition to expressing his fondness for Iranian people and culture, he called Shiraz “the best city” he visited and Rasht a city that bears the most resemblance to British cities. Mimicking the accent of people in the central city of Esfahan (Isfahan), he said that he liked best this accent of Persian. He also acknowledged his appreciation for Iranian cuisine and claimed that he can make a good Iranian kabab.

He named the mythological figure Kaveh the Blacksmith as his favorite, a statement that was construed by several pro-regime users as signaling “a code.” Kaveh is a 5000-year-old figure in Iranian mythology who led an uprising against ruthless ruler Zahak, a metaphor for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a lot of slogans chanted by people during last year’s uprising against the regime.

A large number of Iranian users commented on the British Embassy's Instagram post, with some users saying that Iranians never forget UK policies and actions against Iran in the 20th century and some wishing for the Iranian people to enjoy Iran just as much as Shercliff does.

Some users asked for Shercliff's assistance in facilitating the visa application process, especially for Iranian students aspiring to study in the UK. This comes at a time when many Iranian citizens face significant challenges in obtaining visas from various embassies, notably the British Embassy, amid a surge in immigration from Iran.

A lot of users pointed out Ambassador Shercliff's fluency in Persian, contrasting it with the often-limited English proficiency of Iranian diplomats. Others criticized the video's release, viewing it as part of what they referred to as the UK's "hidden and old policies" of social influence in other countries.

Praising the Shercliff's fluency in Persian, moderate Iranian news website Rouydad 24 said that “over 90 percent of Iranian diplomats in other countries were reported to lack proficiency in the local language.” "On the contrary, you can see the British ambassador showing off a commendable command of even Iranian dialects, as evidenced in this video with his proficiency in Esfahani Persian."

A pro-regime website in Tehran said that the ambassador’s profound understanding and precise mastery of Persian language, culture and customs raises questions about his background and training, claiming that such a level of cultural acumen can only be achieved if he received training from the British foreign intelligence service, the MI6. The website also mentioned Alireza Akbari, a former Iranian defense ministry official and an Iranian-British citizen, who was accused of spying for MI6 and executed.

London’s ambassador in Tehran has appeared regularly in news pieces in Iranian media as he has been summoned several times during the past year to the Islamic Republic’s foreign ministry over remarks either by himself or by other British officials about the regime’s crackdown on protesters. The latest incident was in August when he was summoned after he published comments calling for the release of jailed journalists.

In January, he published pictures, which he took together with his French and German colleagues Nicolas Roche and Hans-Udo Muzel, showing their embassies where Iranian regime elements had vandalized with anti-West slogans. A few days after a group of Iranian citizens voluntarily helped paint the walls, Tehran municipality headed by a hardliner mayor, installed banners near the embassy in the downtown bearing the sentence, “Shame cannot be erased with paint.”

In 2021, Russia's ambassador to Iran Levan Dzhagaryan (Jagarian) tweeted a photo of himself and Shercliffat the Russian embassy in the chairs made famous by a celebrated portrait of World War Two leaders, saying it was taken from the "historic steps of the 1943 Tehran conference." The 1943 conference was attended by former US president Franklin D. Roosevelt, Former UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and former Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin.

“I went to the United States in 2014 where I delivered a speech to [expat] Iranians. All of them longed to return home,” he said in a speech to his former aides and ministers on August 28 a short video of which was only published on Tuesday. 

Rouhani added that an expatriate, apparently with high qualifications, who returned after this meeting was arrested at the airport, presumably by security forces taking their orders from places other than his government. 

“They shut the door. Sadly, some people are happy that our talented youth are leaving. They say, 'Let them go so that others who support the hardline government can take their place,'" he said.

“We would not be facing this level of emigration if effective action had been taken by the government,” warned Shahriyar Heidari, an independent lawmaker who is deputy chairman of the parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the parliament. He also expressed concern about serious damage to the country’s academic foundations. “Most of the emigrants are gifted and expert individuals,” he added. 

Pundits have repeatedly warned about the surge in emigration of academics, entrepreneurs, and professionals, particularly healthcare staff, and the younger elite since hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, took office two years ago. 

There is no transparent data on emigration of Iranian elite and professionals, but some lawmakers occasionally provide fragmentary information about the scope of the problem.

Among those who have lost hope in the country’s prospects, particularly the younger generation from all walks of life, emigration appears to be the only option for a better life. A recent poll by the US-based Statis Consulting found that almost half of Iranian youth want to leave the country amid pessimism about their future.

“All around me there are people who are emigrating, essentially escaping, those who never wished or liked to go. I wish you [the Islamic Republic] were gone and all of these people stayed,” an anonymous person wrote said on social media. 

Bahram Salavati, the head of Iran Migration Observatory (IMO), warned about "mass migration" and loss of human capital due to what he dubbed "Venezuelization of the Iranian economy" resulting from low “economic stability” and inflation in January 2021. "The desire to migrate once prevalent among the educated and the elite is now rapidly spreading among various social classes, particularly the low-income groups.”

The IMO, a research institute founded during Rouhani's second term as president at Sharif University of Technology, monitors data and produces analyses on emigration, particularly for policymakers. The IMO published the first edition of Iran Migration Outlook, which includes data on Iranian emigrants worldwide, international students, and asylum-related emigrants.

On August 2, while expressing his frustration over the lack of support for their efforts to mitigate the brain drain phenomenon, Salavati said that the observatory's funding had stopped, and they had been ordered to vacate their offices. 

An IMO survey in 2022 found that economic and social instability, institutionalized corruption, and the regime's governance methods were responsible for the very high desire to emigrate among medical students, professors, and other healthcare professionals, with the UAE being their top destination.

Countries such as the United States, Canada, Germany, Turkey, Oman, and the United Kingdom are other favorite destinations for Iranians leaving their homeland behind in search of a better life and improved opportunities.

In July 2021, Salavati had told the Hamshahri newspaper that the closure of the gap between a desire to leave and a decision to leave meant "a drop in hope as well as economic and social participation in Iran," as other countries offered various educational, professional, investment, or social attractions.