Reform Activists In Iran Demand Referendum On Protest Anniversary
More than 300 reform activists and figures in Iran have issued a statement demanding a referendum on the future political shape of the country.
More than 300 reform activists and figures in Iran have issued a statement demanding a referendum on the future political shape of the country.
Expressing support for the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement and those killed and imprisoned by the regime, the activists pointed out, "We repeatedly remind that the structure of religious authoritarianism not only undermines our national foundations but also propels us towards future upheavals and movements towards rebellion."
Two weeks before the anniversary of Iranian protests, the pro-reform individuals representing a more radical posture than former President Mohammad Khatami demanded a referendum to make "structural changes" in the Islamic Republic political system.
Iranians expect renewed protests on the anniversary of the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement later this month, and the signatories of the statement, without explicitly calling for demonstrations, voiced support for young dissidents. "Now, we express our solidarity once again with all the families affected by the protests of the past year and hold the uprising of young people seeking freedom and equality, especially the resistance of justice-seeking and freedom-loving women, in high regard," they emphasized.
"Therefore, structural change and a referendum to establish a government derived from the people's vote will remain a right that we continue to advocate so that Iran no longer suffers beyond what it already has," they said.
Iran's reformists, who advocate for a more humane version of the Islamic Republic as a form of government, have been driven out of power by hardliners in the past three years. Even moderate conservatives, such as former parliament speaker Ali Larijani, have been pushed into retirement from public office.
When nationwide protests began in September 2022, after the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, reformists were initially ambivalent toward the movement, which appeared to be more radical than simply demanding reforms within the Islamic Republic system. Prominent reformists adopted contradictory postures, with many rejecting regime change as the desirable goal of the protests.
On November 14, two reform figures, former President Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005) and former vice president Massoumeh Ebtekar, broke their silence after more than 8 weeks of protests about the possible demise of the regime and voiced their opposition to dramatic changes in Iran.
Khatami revealed his opposition to regime change by saying that it was "neither possible nor desirable." Nonetheless, he warned that if the current state of affairs continues, the ground is paved for a looming social collapse.
The divergence of opinions among reformists sharpened in February when former prime minister and Green Movement Leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi issued a statement demanding "fundamental change" based on the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement and constitutional revisions. Mousavi, who has been under house arrest since 2011, said in his statement that the people have given up hope for reforms and they demand widespread change.
Although Mousavi did not openly call for regime change, the demands he put forward could lead to a new and more democratic political system. Ironically, his statement implicitly repeated what exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi has been saying for years, and other opposition figures were demanding during the protests. Mousavi was a pre-imminent Islamic revolutionary in the 1980s.
Khatami, as the symbolic father of the reform movement, nevertheless has maintained his more loyalist position, asking for reforms, while parliamentary elections in March put average reformist figures in a quandary of whether to announce their candidacy or boycott what, in most probability, will turn out to be another engineered vote by the ruling hardliners.
The 300 mostly reformist figures who have signed the latest statement appear to have adopted a position closer to Mousavi, by calling for a referendum.
Qolian (Gholian) gained prominence for her journalistic coverage of prolonged labor strikes at the Haft-Tappeh sugar factory during 2017-2018. Her advocacy on behalf of workers' demands resulted in her arrest and subsequent imprisonment.
In 2019, while detained at Qarchak Prison, Qolian witnessed her own confessions being broadcast on state television. She identified the TV presenter as Ameneh Sadat Zabihpour, known as a mouthpiece for the Iranian regime. She was also a prison interrogator referred to as Ms. Askari during her interrogations. The case was publicized by Qolian which led to Zabihpour filing a lawsuit against her.
The latest court session pertaining to this case took place on August 22. Notably, this session was conducted in secret due to Qolian's refusal to wear the mandatory hijab.
Mehdi Qolian, Sepideh's brother and a civil activist himself, documented the court proceedings on his Instagram account. He reported that Zabihpour repeatedly objected to Sepideh's presence in court without wearing a headscarf. In response, the court judge issued a "criminal offense" against Sepideh for this reason.
Throughout the court session, Zabihpour, who combines the roles of an interrogator and a reporter, persistently threatened Qolian with charges such as "spying" and "sedition" from the moment she entered the courtroom.
Qolian's commitment to activism remained unwavering even after she completed a four-year prison term and was released in March. Shortly after her release, she was re-arrested for publicly chanting against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei while not wearing a hijab. This led to an additional two-year prison sentence.
A massive wave of emigration happens when the economy is in crisis and there are other crises such as political and social alongside it, Dr. Saeid Moidfar, chairman of the Iranian Sociological Association, told the reformist Jamaran news website Wednesday.
Moidfar warned that Iran is now on the threshold of a very intense wave of emigration because those who want to leave believe that political and economic circumstances are not going to improve in Iran, the society’s values are losing their worth, and corruption and crime are on the rise.
“You reach the point where you think this is no longer a good place to live, and you should leave as soon as you can when you feel you are in a country where you are not involved in the decision making system, the country is not being run based on sound principles, your overall economic misery is increasing by the day, and social values are being sullied,” Moidfar said.
Iran’s economy has suffered years of mismanagement and international sanctions, which emanated from its foreign policy and a suspicious nuclear program. Iran’s currency has fallen 12-fold since 2018 and more than 6000-fold since the 1979 revolution. In 1978, one US dollar would buy 70 rials and now the exchange rate is close to 500,000.
According to Moidfar, people lost their hopes in the future of the country when they elected the moderate Hassan Rouhani for a second term in 2017 but were disappointed with the results. The government had no desire to respond to people’s wishes and it would have been prevented from doing so even if it wanted to, he argued.
The sociologist was probably referring to power wielded by Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei, the Revolutionary and their hardliner supporters who were constantly besieging the Rouhani government.
“Since 2017 the country has been in deep crisis. All prospects of change have been lost and there is no hope for the future of this country any longer,” he said.
Also speaking to Jamaran on Saturday, the former President Rouhani criticized the ongoing purge of university professors that has outraged many Iranians and acknowledged that such purges would lead to a higher rate of emigration.
Observers say the dismissal of dissident professors may be a preemptive move to reduce the chances of campus protests on the first anniversary of Amini's death and that the regime wants to replace its ideological adversaries among the academia with those supporting its own ideology.
Somayeh Tohidlou, sociologist, told the reformist Etemad daily last week that ideological contradictions, the feeling of being humiliated, and the loss of dignity were among the most important factors contributing to the urge to leave.
“At least 6,000 doctors would not have left Iran this year if the government had an issue with the emigration [of professionals],” she said and argued the government has no problem with people leaving because those who leave, unlike those who support the regime, are ideologically undesirable and should be dispensed with.
Driven by economic and professional problems, as well as lack of social and political freedoms, an increasing number of Iran's healthcare professionals have been leaving the country in the past year, giving rise to the fear of serious deterioration of the country’s healthcare system but government officials refuse to acknowledge the problem.
According to Dr. Moidfar, it is now not just those with a high level of education or wealth who wish to leave but ordinary people who would not normally have thought of emigration are also dreaming of leaving the country.
Emigration of the younger generation and brain drain have plagued Iran for decades but the desire to leave has been growing much faster since last year’s suppression of the Woman, Life, Freedom protests, experts say.
There are no reliable figures on the number of people who have left Iran in the past year and secret because statistics on emigration is treated as a national security issue and kept secret.