Politicians Say Iran’s Economic Crisis Can Lead To Regime Collapse
A former head of Iran's Planning and Budget Organization says economic crisis will inevitably lead to the collapse of the regime, as others also voice pessimism.
A former head of Iran's Planning and Budget Organization says economic crisis will inevitably lead to the collapse of the regime, as others also voice pessimism.
A prominent ‘reformist’ politician also argues that the current popular distrust in the government leads the authorities to use a security approach against the people.
At the same time, a former Deputy Intelligence Minister and Government Spokesman says despite the nationwide uprising that started in September 2022, there is no prospect for change and reform in the country.
Former budget chief Massoud Roghani Zanjani speaking in a Club House chat session that years of inflation and poverty have brought the popular dissatisfaction to a peak and laid the ground for protests in Iran.
Zanjani said that the current crisis is the outcome of clerics' intervention in politics and the conflict between elected and non-elected bodies in the government. He added that the non-elected bodies are where the clerics' power centers are.
He further added that "When absolute power was given to the Supreme Leader in the 1987 revision of the Iranian Constitution, it was in fact similar to crossing out all other articles of the Constitution." He pointed out that since then, Ali Khamenei has undermined the Constitution by actions such as giving executive powers to the heads of the three branches of the government.
Zanjani said one of the reasons for the country's economic crisis is that Iran has two treasuries, one for the government, and another for Khamenei's office. He further charged that privileges given to the clerics has created an apartheid regime in their favor.
Meanwhile, prominent reformist figure Feyzollah Arabsorkhi said in an interview with Rouydad24 website that people's distrust of the government, has encouraged officials to use security measures as a tool against the people.
He added that what is going on in the parliament and the government is diagonally different from what people expect. Arabsorkhi said, "Just look at the government's views about the Internet and social media. It reflects the views of the hard core of the government about freedom of speech.” Under these circumstances, you cannot expect the people to trust the government when it tries all the time to restrict people's access to the Internet.
"People's distrust in the government and its efficiency are currently the biggest problems the authorities are facing," Arabsorkhi said, adding that "People do not believe what rulers say, and if the government wishes to correct this situation it should respond positively to popular demands and expectations.
He added that the hijab law that is currently being discussed secretly at the parliament without paying attention to the people's views and expectations is one of the examples why Iranians have lost trust in the government. The state television which could have acted as mediator between the people and the government acts so unilaterally that there is no trace of the people's demands in its programming.
Meanwhile, former government spokesman Ali Rabiei wrote in Etemad Online website that there is still no prospect for reforms and correcting mistakes made by the government despite several months of nationwide protests.
"On the contrary, in some cultural issues we see that the government is putting a step back," Rabiei said, presumably referring to compulsory hijab.
Rabiei insisted that failure to bring about a clear prospect for reforms in foreign and economic policies, and improve governance will adversely affect turnout in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
Iranian sources told the media that the deal would unfreeze $6 billion in Iranian funds in South Korea and some Iranians from US prisons.
"We are relieved to learn that Iranian authorities have released five US citizens -- Siamak Namazi, Morad Tahbaz, Emad Sharghi, and two individuals who at this time wish to remain private -- from prison to house arrest, State Department spokesperson Matt Miller told the media.
“We are in touch with the families of US citizens involved, and we continue to monitor these individuals’ health and welfare closely. While we welcome the news of these individuals’ release from prison to house arrest, they should never have been imprisoned in the first place. We continue to work diligently to bring these individuals home to their loved ones.They must be allowed to depart Iran and reunite with their loved ones as soon as possible," Miller added.
Allowing the five to leave Iran could take weeks, Reuters said, while it is not clear if all the details of releasing the funds held in South Korea have been agreed or not.
"The move by Iran of the American hostages from Evin Prison ... is an important development," Jared Genser a lawyer representing Namazi said in a statement. "While I hope this will be the first step to their ultimate release, this is at best the beginning of the end."
White House National Security Council Spokesperson Adrienne Watson confirmed that the five were all out of prison and under house arrest, saying they should never have been detained and the White House would have little more to add because talks for their eventual release "remain ongoing and are delicate."
Iran's mission to the United Nations, however, told Iranian state media the release of the dual nationals from prison was part of a US-Iranian prisoner exchange deal.
"Under the deal mediated by a third country, five Iranians jailed in the United States will be released and Iran's frozen funds in South Korea will be unblocked and transferred to Qatar," the mission said, according to state news agency IRNA.
DEPARTURE FROM IRAN COULD TAKE WEEKS
Iranian Americans, whose US citizenship is not recognized by Tehran, are often pawns for the Islamic Republic which has a long history of taking Westerners hostage to use as leverage against the United States and European governments.
The five Americans will be allowed to leave Iran after $6 billion of Iranian funds in South Korea are unfrozen, a source told Reuters. A second source familiar with the talks said it could be weeks before the US citizens leave Iran, saying September was a possible time frame. He confirmed unfreezing the funds may be part of the deal.
However, he said the funds, if transferred from the South Korean banks to another financial institution, would go from one restricted account to another and could only be used for humanitarian purposes such as buying food or medicine.
Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency said the funds were first to be converted from the South Korean currency into Euros and then sent to an account in Qatar that Iran could access.
The potential transfer drew immediate Republican criticism that President Joe Biden, a Democrat, had effectively paid a ransom for the US citizens and that Iran using the money for humanitarian goods could free up funds for its nuclear program or to back militias in nations such as Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.
Henry Rome, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Reuters the deal could help reduce tensions that have boiled since then US President Donald Trump, a Republican, withdrew from a 2015 nuclear deal designed to curb Iran's atomic program.
Rome described the potential release of the five as a step forward "in the broader US efforts to de-escalate tensions in the absence of a nuclear agreement" adding that the White House "wouldn't have gone through with the deal if it wasn't confident it could withstand whatever political blowback is forthcoming."
Karim Sadjadpour, a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace analyst, told Reuters that Iranian Americans should still avoid travel to Iran.
"This deal will reinforce the view of (Iran's) Revolutionary Guards that hostage taking is a lucrative practice with minimal costs," he said.
Namazi, who in 2016 was convicted of espionage-related charges the United States has rejected as baseless, has been detained by Iran for more than seven years.
Tahbaz was arrested in 2018 and sentenced to 10 years in prison for "assembly and collusion against Iran's national security" and working for the United States as a spy. Sharghi was convicted of espionage in 2020 and also sentenced to 10 years.