Poland Warns Iran Against Supporting Russia

In an interview with Politico on Thursday, Tom Tugendhat highlighted the emergence of what he called "a new form of state threat" from Iran.

The remarks from the security minister come in the wake of recent developments, where the UK foreign secretary revealed that British authorities have thwarted 15 separate attempts to assassinate or abduct individuals within the country. The nature of these plots and their connection to the Iranian regime has raised alarm bells in the UK's security circles.

Regarding the possibility of negotiating a renewed nuclear deal with Tehran, Tugendhat adopted a cautious stance. He asserted that no actions should inadvertently bolster the regime's claims of legitimacy or stability.

“We’re dealing with a regime that has lost legitimacy abroad, has lost legitimacy at home.”

Last week, a group of UK politicians wrote to Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, calling on the government to adopt more stringent measures against Iran.

“Iran is the Middle East’s largest, most aggressive power, with an obvious commitment to revising the global order, with a growing alliance with Russia, and a desire to deepen it," read the letter by a group of prominent British figures, including two former defense ministers, a former leader of the Liberal Democrat party, and the current chair of the parliamentary committee on foreign affairs.

The summoning took place on Thursday evening, as a protest against the repeated acts of Quran burning in the European nation.

Nasser Kanani, the spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, personally summoned the Swedish ambassador and conveyed "the strong protest of the Islamic Republic of Iran."

"We strongly condemn the repeated desecration of the Holy Quran and Islamic holy things in Sweden, and we hold the Swedish government fully responsible for the consequences of inciting the feelings of Muslims around the world," said Kanani.

The incident involved Salwan Momika, an Iraqi immigrant, who burned the Quran in front of the central mosque in Stockholm on the first day of Eid al-Adha, after obtaining a permit from the Swedish government. He repeated the act once again, this time in front of the Iraqi embassy in Stockholm.

Kanani urged the Swedish government “to fulfill its international responsibilities in preventing the recurrence of such actions”, emphasizing that they were "regrettable," "in violation of human rights," and "contrary to religious and human values."

Following the incident, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah militant group, called on all Arab and Muslim countries to expel the Swedish ambassadors from their respective nations and recall their own ambassadors from Sweden, echoing the actions taken by the Iraqi government.

The tensions escalated further when hundreds of supporters of Moqtada al-Sadr, a radical Iraqi Shia cleric, attacked the Swedish embassy in Baghdad in the early hours of Thursday, setting it on fire.

The announcement on Thursday came after the US said earlier this week it was sending more warplanes to the region to deter Iran from harassing and attacking commercial ships in the strategic waterways.

“In response to recent attempts by Iran to threaten the free flow of commerce in the Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding waters, the Secretary of Defense has ordered the deployment of a portion of the BATAAN Amphibious Readiness Group/Marine Expeditionary Unit comprised of the USS Bataan, USS Carter Hall,” and associated personnel to CENTCOM’s area of responsibility the Defense Department said in a statement. The region covers the larger Middle East area including the Red Sea and Parts of the Indian Ocean.

According to the US Naval Institute on July 10, the USS Bataan group includes almost 4,000 sailors and Marines, and they had departed from Virginia and North Carolina.

“The 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit is based in North Carolina and includes the command element; the aviation combat element, Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron, 162 (Reinforced); the ground combat element, Battalion Landing Team 1/6; and the logistics combat element,” USNI said.

The Pentagon said July 17 that it was sending additional F-35 and F-16 fighter jets, along with a warship to the Middle East, in a bid to monitor key waterways in the region following Iran's seizure and harassment of commercial shipping vessels in recent months.

"The (Pentagon) is increasing our presence and ability to monitor the (Strait of Hormuz) and surrounding waters," Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters. It was not clear where exactly the additional jets would be placed and how long they would stay in the region.

Announcing the deployment of the expeditionary force the Defense Department also said in its Thursday Statement, “Through these actions, the United States is demonstrating commitment to ensuring freedom of navigation and deterring Iranian destabilization activities in the region.”

Iran’s latest attempts to interfere with commercial shipping occurred earlier this month when it tried to seize two vessels. The US Navy announced July 5 that it prevented Iranian naval forces from diverting the vessels including the Richmond Voyager, a super tanker managed by Chevron in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrowest part of the Persian Gulf.

Since 2019, there have been a series of attacks on shipping in strategic Persian Gulf waters at times of tension between the United States and Iran. The Revolutionary Guard has seized or attacked 15 vessels since 2019, according to the US Navy. Over the years, Iranian speedboats also harassed US Navy ships, sometimes in dangerous maneuvers.

With the 2015 Iran nuclear deal effectively dead, Iran's relations with the West have deteriorated over the last year, with Tehran supplying hundreds of kamikaze drones to Russia that have been regularly used to attack civilian and infrastructure targets in Ukraine. The US and its allies have warned Tehran to seize its military cooperation with Moscow that can expand into supplying ballistic missile later this year when a UN restriction on Iran expires.

“We will continue to work with like-minded allies and partners who are committed to the free flow of commerce to take appropriate, coordinated actions against threats to this fundamental principle of the rules-based international order,” the Defense Department said.

Closing at 1.95m points on Monday after weeks of turbulence, the main index dropped to the levels seen in mid-March. By Wednesday it rose again to slightly over 2 million points.

But this appears to have done little to reassure neither small investors who have withdrawn much of their capital from TSE in recent weeks for the fear of losing all, nor big investment firms.

“The continuation of negative tremors has a key message [for investors]. It is a signal that speeded up the exodus of big investors and resulted in distrust in the market,” Donya-ye Eghtesad newspaper, which focuses on business and economy, wrote Tuesday.

Experts say there are several reasons for TSE’s troubles these days but the decision of the government earlier this week to increase the price of gas it sells to industries which particularly affects the hard currency earning petrochemical industries was the major reason for the capital outflow from TSE.

 The few industries with export markets such as steel and petrochemical represent most of the trading in the exchange.

According to Donya-ye Eghtesad, however, in the past few days shares of most companies have dropped irrespective of whether their value is gauged in hard currency, like exporters, or in the national currency rial, such as construction firms and automakers.

“The massive collapse of the stock market is intentional and the managed work of the government,” Dr Mahsima Pooyafard, US-based university professor, said in a tweet Tuesday, arguing that the government of President Ebrahim Raisi has announced several economic decisions such as increasing certain tariffs that highly affect the profitability of the stock market and drive people to dump their stocks. The collapse of the stock market, she said, would help the government to resolve some of its own cash problems. 

The index has been in decline due to political uncertainties since May 7, a day dubbed as “the Black Monday of TSE”, with a handful of small peaks when hopes for reviving Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal helped the index rise momentarily. 

Since the United States imposed economic sanction on Iran in 2018, the stock market has risen 24-fold. Half of this astonishing rise is because the Iranian currency has fallen 12-fold in the same period and the market has experienced share price inflation.

This phenomenon, the 12-fold rise of the index in real terms, contradicts other economic indices and prices. 

Economic journalist Ehsan Soltani in Tehran has pointed out that based on official statistics, since the first quarter of the Iranian calendar year starting on March 21, 2017, Iran's GDP, consumption by families, and the minimum wage have increased by 750, 550, and 470 percent (in rials), respectively.

“But the value of TSE companies has grown by 2,450 percent and the dollar exchange rate by 1,270 percent,” he wrote and argued that the massive increase in the value of TSE companies is not normal and has only been achievable through government manipulation.

Capital market analysts predict funds withdrawn from the TSE by small investors flow to the parallel gold, property, and foreign exchange markets. This will push the exchange rates up and let the government sell its own petrodollars at a higher rate. 

The government decision to sell its own assets through the TSE in early 2020, when the index stood at less than 500,000 points, is often cited as an example of manipulation of the stock market. 

Small investors were encouraged by the government of President Hassan Rouhani to commit capital to the market amid the decline in the value of the rial. The index rose to 2 million points by mid-year but soon tumbled down to 1.2 million, wiping out the savings of small investors. 

At the time, the Rouhani’s hardliner critics alleged that the government had intentionally drawn people to invest in the stock market, mostly representing public and quasi-public companies, to remedy its huge budget deficit. 

On Thursday, the EU council established a new framework for restrictive measures to counter Iran's role in the proliferation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones.

The recently adopted regime specifically prohibits the export of components used in the construction and production of UAVs from the European Union to Iran.

The measures build upon three previously adopted packages of drone-related sanctions that targeted both individuals and entities involved in Iran's drone activities.

In a related development, the EU council decided to add six Iranian individuals to the existing sanctions regimes for their involvement in Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine and support to the Syrian regime's air defense systems.

The urgency of these measures comes amid recent reports from the Irish government about the use of drone components originating from Ireland in a Russian drone shot down in Ukraine.

The Irish Prime Minister, Leo Varadkar, revealed on Wednesday that the Irish government is actively investigating the matter.

Pictures of the recovered drone, reportedly equipped with an Iranian-made Shahed drone part labeled 'Made in Ireland,' were shared on social media by Andriy Yermak, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine.

Varadkar further acknowledged that third parties might have found ways to circumvent the EU ban on drone components being sold to Russia.

The specific component in question, a carburetor, was marked as being made by the American company Tillotson, which operates a factory in County Kerry, Ireland, as reported by Irish broadcaster RTÉ.