Iran Says Prisoner Swap Deal With US Stopped

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and their French counterpart Catherine Colonna “underscored their concern about Iran’s nuclear escalation and its lack of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency” (IAEA), calling on Iran to reverse course.

After nuclear negotiations between these Western countries and the Islamic Republic reached a stalemate last year, Iran has continued enriching uranium to high levels and refused to provide satisfactory answers to the IAEA regarding its past nuclear activities, a State Department statement said.

“They also discussed their concerns about the deepening two-way military cooperation between Iran and Russia, and its implications for the security and stability of the region and beyond. “

Iran has been supplying kamikaze drones to Russia that target Ukraine’s infrastructure, and are seen as a threat by European countries.

“The leaders reaffirmed their solidarity with the Iranian people in light of Iran’s continued egregious human rights abuses and agreed to continue to closely coordinate their approach to the regime’s destabilizing activities,” the statement said.

Iran’s lack of cooperation on nuclear issues, military assistance to Russia and its bloody suppression of popular protests have cast a dark shadow over chances of a new agreement with the West.

Germany's foreign minister told reporters in Munich that a nuclear escalation with Iran must be avoided.

"A nuclear escalation must be prevented. That is the focus of our diplomatic efforts.”

The Indian Express wrote on Friday that Hossein Amir-Abdollahian refused to attend the meeting after India ignored Tehran's request to remove two seconds from the video.

The governments of New Delhi and Tehran have yet to react to this report.

In a situation that Tehran has become more isolated by Western countries, this could be a sign that the Iranian regime is also being further sidelined in its relationship with countries that usually it had friendly ties with.

According to Indian Express, the Raisina Dialogue conference will be held in New Delhi in two weeks with the participation of the ministry of foreign affairs of India and the "Observer Research Foundation" thinktank for two days.

The short teaser of the conference includes images of the most important events of 2022.

In the first months of the "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests, many women and girls in Iran cut their hair in the streets, classrooms and on the graves of their dead loved ones in a move to show anger at the clerical ruler’s brutality. Women in other countries also cut their hair in public as a sign of solidarity with Iranian protesters.

Iranian regime has killed over 500 protesters following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody in September.

In a top-secret letter addressed to First Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber, Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Diplomacy Mehdi Safari said that many development projects that were supposed to be carried out by Chinese and Russian companies have been stopped, calling on the government to take measures to re-start the projects. 

In his letter, Safari mentioned the South Pars/North Dome Gas-Condensate field, Azar Oil Field in Ilam Province, Changouleh oil fields in West Karoun region and Darkhovein oil field and Mansouri Oil Field in Khuzestan and several others in which the Russians had planned to invest but refrained to do so. The Shadegan and Kupal oil fields were also mentioned in the letter, adding that the government has not issued the needed permits for the Russian investors to continue their planned projects. 

The letter called on the administration to provide incentives for the Russians who are reluctant to implement the projects, especially on the South Pars field. He said further negotiations or inviting delegations from Russia may help speed up the implementation of the projects.

The South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf waters adjacent to Qatari fields is specially important for Iran as production has been steadily declining due to lack of technology to compensate for the fall in natural pressure. Under sanctions, Iran is not able to sign contracts with major Western oil companies who can build larger platforms and use more powerful pumps. Oil minister Javad Owji has said that Iran also needs to invest $40 billion in its gas industry – money it currently does not have.

Safari said that Chinese companies may be good alternatives for the Russian companies, but another leaked document has revealed that Chinese firms are not so willing to invest in Iran either. President Ebrahim Raisi visited China this week to persuade Beijing to operationalize a 25-year cooperation agreement with the Islamic Republic, but China is probably reluctant to violate US sanctions and is not certain about the future of the regime in Tehran. It has only expressed readiness to help in the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal.

The last chance Iran had for collaboration with a Western energy giant was a $5 billion deal it had struck with Total in 2016 to develop the South Pars gas fields, which fell apart in 2018 when former US president Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and began imposing sanctions.

No substantial investment has been made since. Even the Chinese have not been active despite repeated claims that they would develop the country’s energy sector. Without a comprehensive deal with the United States to resolve differences, no serious international investor would commit to the Iranian market.

In October, a top oil official in Iran said that if new investments are not made in natural gas industry, the country will become a net importer in the next few years. Iran has the second largest natural gas reserves in the world, holding more than 17 percent of global discovered gas fields, but the government had to implement power cuts this winter, as it could not supply enough gas to power plants that have to switch to dirty liquid fuels.

Iran’s gas fields, like any other in the world and similar to Qatar’s, have a natural production curve and underground pressure that pushes the gas out declines over time, needing modern technology to maintain production level. Qatar has invested in 20,000-ton production platforms, not only maintaining output but even increasing production.

Malley tweeted a photo of his meeting with Sheikh Khalifa Al Harthy, Foreign Ministry Undersecretary for Diplomatic Affairs, on Wednesday, saying they discussed deepening their close partnership on a range of issues related to Iran. “I also reiterated our thanks to Oman for their help securing Baquer Namazi’s release,” Malley added.

Namazi was held hostage in Iran for more than six years and was released in October.

Later in the day, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said, “Oman has played a constructive role across the Middle East... in the region in the past. It has been a bridge-builder between countries that do not always see eye-to-eye. Rob (Malley) tweeted this morning that he had a very good set of meetings in Oman. They discussed a number of issues related to Iran.”

NBC had reported earlier that $7 billion of Iran’s funds held in South Korea will be released as part of a prisoner deal.

Iran International’s correspondent asked Price if the US is willing to give the Iranian people assurances that any released funds are not going to end up in IRGC’s hands. Price responded that he is not in a position to confirm or deny any reports.

“We engage with our partners around the world to thank them for upholding the sanctions regime that is in place and will be in place until and unless Iran addresses the challenge that its nuclear program poses to the United States; poses to our allies and partners and poses to the broader region,” he added.

Circumventing a direct answer about contacts to resume the talks aimed at reviving the JCPOA, he said that “even when relations are at a low we are able to pursue our interests and to pursue them effectively in the midst of Russia's brutal war against Ukraine despite everything that we're doing to support our Ukrainian partners and everything we impose on Russia as a result of its brutal aggression we've been able to bring home we've been able to bring home Brittney Griner.”

He added that bringing Americans home will always be profoundly in our interests and even when relations are at a low or maybe close to that point, we are determined to do everything we can to secure the safety and the well-being of our citizens.”
 Praising the “instrumental role Oman has played to solve challenges helping to bridge divides,” he said that Oman “did play a very useful and important role in the decision on the part of the Iranian regime’s release of Baquer Namazi.”

“They were very supportive as part of our long-standing persistent efforts to see all of our wrongful detainees... to help effectuate them release from the Iranian custody.”

“So, we thank Oman for the role it has played, and we continue to consult closely with Oman on Challenges near and far and Rob’s engagement was part of that.”

The department spokesperson Ned Price was asked on Tuesday to comment on Chinese President XI Jinping’s remark earlier in the day that the Iranian nuclear issue should be resolved as soon as possible.

In response he said that the United States has engaged with China and other global stakeholders to encourage them to counter Iran’s policies “that destabilize the region and threaten our partners and our allies. Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missile program, its other malign activities and influence, are profoundly destabilizing in the region.”

Ned Price drew attention to Chinese cooperation in pressuring Iran in the early 2010s regarding its nuclear program. Presumably, he said, that’s why “the PRC came together with us the better part of a decade ago by now in the original configuration of the P5+1 to work with us to ultimately negotiate what became known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA].”

However, China has been violating US oil export sanctions imposed on Iran on a large scale since the Biden administration came into office. Industry observers believe that Beijing is allowing at least 700,000 barrels of Iranian crude oil to be imported by its refineries, which provides a financial lifeline to the regime in Tehran.

But Price also reiterated the administration’s new policy of not pursuing the nuclear talks unless Tehran meets a number of demands. The spokesman said, “the JCPOA has not been on the agenda for some time. We continue to discount, if not dismiss repeated claims from Iranian officials that we are eager to go back to the JCPOA, we’re calling for a return to JCPOA negotiations. We’re not. We’re sending very clear messages to the Iranian regime. Those messages are: Stop killing your own people, stop sending UAV technology to Russia, and free those wrongfully detained American citizens.”

Critics have repeatedly accused the administration of not sufficiently enforcing sanctions the US imposed in 2018, when former President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA. The main loophole is the oil exports to China that can generate more than $20 billion a year for the Islamic Republic.

Price continued the administration’s rhetoric demanding that Beijing should act responsibly. “My point is that the PRC has a role to play in very clearly signaling to Iran that its destabilizing activities, that its brinksmanship is not going to be rewarded. It’s not going to be countenanced. It is not something that the international community is prepared to sit idly by and watch.”

Not only China supports the Islamic Republic by buying its illicit oil shipments, but inviting Raisi at a time when the regime stands accused of gross human rights violations against protesters, is a clear attempt to support the rulers in Tehran.

The Islamic Republic is facing isolation also because of its drone deliveries to Russia and Beijing’s invitation to Raisi partially mollifies that isolation.

Judging from numerous social media posts by Iranian critics of the regime, it appears that their anti-China sentiment has increased because of this latest lifeline thrown to the Islamic Republic.