Sociologists Say Lack Of Public Trust Driving Iran Protests
In a new book, two Iranian academics argue that Iranian have lost trust in the regime, which is perceived as inefficient and mired in discriminatory behavior.
In a new book, two Iranian academics argue that Iranian have lost trust in the regime, which is perceived as inefficient and mired in discriminatory behavior.
“An unhappy crowd takes to the streets when it has no other way to voice its dissatisfaction with the current situation. We have explained in this book that political participation in Iran has been declining and a large majority of the people believe that the official power structure is inefficient and corrupt," one of the authors said.
In an interview with Mohsen Goudarzi and Abdolmohammad Kazemipour the authors of the newly published book, "What happened? The story of decline of Iranian society," Reformist daily Shargh's editor Ahmad Gholami discussed recent protests against the backdrop of long-standing dissent.
The book by the two prominent sociologists was published when Iranian protesters took over the streets and many political analysts and scholars tried to explain the uprising. The authors of this book were particularly focused on the declining social capital and public trust in Iran.
The authors examined the "vertical trust" between the people and the government, which they believe has eroded during the past decades because of the serious inefficiency of the government and a closed system that did not allow political participation. This, the authors believe, has made it difficult for the government to convince the public about its narrative. They have also examined the "horizontal trust" between the members of the public and social groups.
They have also observed that the four waves of protests between 2009 and 2022 were different from each other in their form and nature. Kazemipor said about the differences and similarities between these movements: "There are some key concepts in the book that might be helpful. These include the horizontal and vertical trusts."
He added that in the 2009 Green Movement, both of these types of trust were still in place, while in the following waves of protests, the vertical trust in particular had declined. The horizontal trust between citizens was also lost to some extent.
Kazemipour continued: "In 2009 the project for change was a more or less reformist movement. It was not radical. That indicated that the links between the government and society were still in place. So, people could still have hope in gradual reforms."
"Meanwhile, the society had just seen the performance of a reformist government that had its links to civil and occupational activists. This means there was a strong horizontal trust. However, in 2018 and 2019 and 2022 both the horizontal and vertical trusts were weakened," Kazemipour added: "One can even say the vertical communication was totally lost in 2022 and that is clear in the nature of the protesters' slogans which were focused mainly on what people did not want. They no longer demanded a particular reform, action or behavior from the country's power structure."
Goudarzi said: "Analyzing the movement based on the main idea of this book requires access to more data. For instance, we do not know exactly about the age range, socio-economic class and the attitudes of the protesters. We do not know what segments of the society were present in the streets and who was absent and what made the two groups different from each other. If we had those information, we could tell more precisely how their characteristics were linked to the movement."
Goudarzi added that "the people believe the government has not been successful during the past four decades in anything other than maintaining the country's security, and even in that area the state's success has not been eye-catching. The people believe that the government has certainly failed in the economy…civil liberties. People feel they are discriminated against. This feeling of discrimination is a major source of anger."
Goudarzi added: "The people do not believe that government offices or organizations belong to them. As a result, their trust in clerics, judges and government officials have been declining during the past decades and people turned their back to official institutions and even political groups and factions."
In a statement published on Tuesday, they said that 44 years after the establishment of the Islamic Republic the country's economic, political and social situation has plunged into a "vortex of crisis and disintegration."
They added that no clear and attainable prospect can be envisioned to end the current situation within the existing political framework, calling for building a new, modern and humane society after the Islamic Republic.
They described about five months of street protests as an attempt to end the existing inhumane situation, noting that their efforts against the misogyny and gender discrimination, unrelenting economic insecurity, poverty and labor exploitation, as well as ethnic, class and religious subjugation have been suppressed by the regime.
Outlining 12 main demands, they called for the release of all political prisoners, prohibition of criminalizing political, union, and civil activities, public trial of the leaders and perpetrators of the violence against protesters, unrestricted freedom of opinion, expression and thought, assembly, and social media as well as policies to preserve natural resources and ending environmental degradation.
In their charter, they also demanded abolition of the death sentence and prohibition of torture as well as a secular constitution. They said the organizations and institutions tasked with repression should be dismantled and the powers of the government should be limited.
They also urged normalization of foreign relations at the highest levels with all the countries of the world and equal rights for women and LGBTQ+ community.
The Coordinating Council of Iranian Teachers' Trade Association, The Independent Iranian Workers Union, The Union of Student Organizations, Defenders of Human Rights Center, Haft Tappeh Sugar Cane Mill Labor Syndicate, and Council for Organizing Oil Contract-Workers' Protests were some of the signatories of the charter.
Moreover, a group of families of those killed by the Islamic Republic announced the establishment of a council to push for justice and setting up “an independent judiciary." In a video statement released to media on Wednesday, they said as long as "the mullahs' hellish regime” persists, more people will be slaughtered “for the crime of patriotism and seeking freedom.”
“We, the families of the petitioners, whose loved ones have been murdered by the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran for 43 years, demand the establishment of a judiciary independent of the political system, after the overthrow of the regime inside the country.” they added.
On Valentine's Day, February 14, families of protesters killed gathered at their graves with flowers and red balloons and other symbols to mark the day of romance and love. Social media is full of photos of the families who marked the day in memory of their loved ones killed by the regime.
Canada-based activist leader Hamed Esmaeilion, whose daughter and wife were killed by the IRGC in the shooting down of Flight PS752 in 2020, tweeted in memory of his lost wife and daughter in their last Valentine’s Day together. He said that his daughter was excited that he bought flowers for her too and kept them until they dried.
According to human rights groups, the Islamic Republic has killed over 500 people, including at least 70 children, during its crackdown on the ongoing protests.
In their historic joint event in Washington on February 10, eight prominent opposition figures held a joint forum, signaling the emergence of a leadership council in the diaspora to campaign for international support in favor of Iran’s protest movement. They also called for support from democratic countries to change the regime in Iran and establish democracy. The group is also working on a charter for a transition to an Iran after the Islamic Republic that would be ready at the end of the month. They said “the world must prepare itself for a day without the Islamic republic."
Reza Hosseini Ghotbabadi, a lawmaker, charged that the administration's behavior contradicts Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's call for giving hope to the society.
He added that some of Raisi's aides and ministers lack the managerial experience for running the affairs of the state. He further charged that blaming all the country's problems on the previous governments rather than accepting responsibility for the shortcomings is unethical.
He said Raisi should have been familiar with the issue of financial corruption as the country's former Judiciary Chief and should have prevented wrongdoing while he was in that capacity. Meanwhile, he warned that the next government in Iran might also blame Raisi and his cabinet for the country's problems.
Ghotbabadi said elsewhere that Raisi and his aides believe themselves to be the only wise individuals in Iran and that they are not prepared to consult with others including the parliament about the affairs of the state.
"The government makes all decisions secretly among insiders. But chaos will continue in Iran as long as the administration refuses to work with the parliament.”
Meanwhile, in similar statements, Rasoul Montajabnia, the secretary general of the pro-reform Republicanism Party said in an interview that some Iranian officials see themselves as the essence of the political system and impose a minority's views on everyone. "They believe that they are the system and insist that protecting the system is the most important thing to do," he said.
Referring to former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi and Former President Mohammad Khatami's statements about the need for essential changes in the system, Montajabnia said differentiation should be made between the regime and those who are or have been working within this system.
He added that the mistakes and naivety of radicals within the system has weakened the constitution and tarnished the image of the regime. Nonetheless, he said that in the 1990s he had opposed the idea of changing the system. "Of course, the system needs to be reformed but not all of the current problems have their roots in the nature of the system," Montajabnia said.
Until recently this has been the position of all reformists who have tried for 25 years to reform the Islamic Republic. However, Mousavi and a few hundreds of other reformists have come out demanding constitutional change that could effectively put an end to the Islamic Republic in its current form.
In another development, responding to hardliners such as the editor of Kayhan daily, who have said that people's participation in the revolution anniversary rallies on February 11 show that no change should be made in the constitution, the former chairman of the Tehran City Council Mohsen Hashemi said that those who took part in the revolution anniversary rallies do not represent the majority of Iranians.
He warned: "Economic, social and cultural indicators point to an alarming state, so, please stop putting more holes in the boat!" He pointed out that in a city like Tehran even if 500 thousand people turned up for the rallies, this is hardly five percent of the city's population. So, we need to consider the demands and views of the other 95 percent."
"Another point to consider is that the views of that five percent should not be taken as the entire nation's support for government policies," Hashemi added. Meanwhile he warned that a majority of Iranians are living under the poverty line, and this means that they are being drowned in economic problems.