Two Regime Officials Say Iran Needs The JCPOA TO Avert Deeper Crises
Two members of Iran's Expediency Council have called on the government to return to nuclear talks in a bid to evade the dangerous consequences of sanctions.
Two members of Iran's Expediency Council have called on the government to return to nuclear talks in a bid to evade the dangerous consequences of sanctions.
Mohammad Sadr has said in an interview with reformist daily Etemad that he had warned the Supreme Council of National Security and the heads of the three branches of the government about the adverse effects of failing to lift the sanctions on Iran's economy.
Sadr further told Etemad: "[President Ebrahim] Raisi told me that he has ordered his men to go ahead and further the negotiations, but he also said that there is serious opposition to the JCPOA in Iran by some security forces, those who benefit from the sanctions, and those who do not understand foreign relations."
Accusations that those who make money from sanctions by illicit trade or money laundering are not new, but it is the first time that Raisi has reportedly admitted it.
Meanwhile, in an interview with moderate conservative website Khabar Online, another Expediency Council member Gholamreza Mesbahi Moghaddam has also called on the Iranian government to resume the talks with Western governments to revive the JCPOA as the sanctions prevent foreign investments in Iran.
Both political figures also talked about the impact of Iran's involvement in the war in Ukraine. Sadr said: "Iran's impartiality in the war in Ukraine has been questioned. Peoples and governments in other countries are opposing Iran. Iran's foreign policy has not been successful, and the country's international status is weakening." Sadr added that "Iran should watch out for further diplomatic and international sanctions. The situation for Iran is very dangerous at international level particularly after the executions that have taken place."
Mesbahi Moghaddam on the other hand said that Iran should seek concessions from Russia as Moscow needs Iran to open a corridor to facilitate foreign trade as a country that needs to circumvent international sanctions.
Sadr noted that the United States has even accused Iran of committing a war crime by giving drones to Russia. At the same time, he added that the continuation of protests in Iran and the execution of several protesters has led more foreign pressures on Tehran. All of this, he said, has made an agreement with the West harder than ever before. Sadr further described the situation as an all-out economic, political and propaganda war against Iran.
He also pointed out that the regime needs to bring about a series of reforms, otherwise, it would be hardly able to properly respond to the ensuing consequences. Sadr added that Iran needs to adopt a realistic foreign policy. He pointed out that Tehran’s negotiating team has lost many precious opportunities because of the wrong policies it has pursued so far.
Politicians in Iran who criticize the government hardly ever mention that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has the last word in all major decisions, especially in foreign policy.
Sadr further pointed out that if the sanctions continue, the economic situation will worsen, and officials should stop the rhetoric about solving economic problems without an agreement over the nuclear program.
"I have talked about this with President Raisi and he is aware that a heavy pressure will be exerted on him if the problem of the JCPOA is not solved," he said, adding that some 30 percent of Iranians are already living in poverty. Some Iranians can no longer afford buying milk and fruits as inflation rises on a dayly basis.
He also warned that if executions and violation of human rights continue a dangerous international situation may occur for Iran and many countries might deport Iranian diplomats and recall their diplomats from Tehran. Meanwhile, the world public opinion has never been as seriously against the Islamic Republic as it is now.
On the other hand, Mesbahi Moghaddam charged that despite all the problems, the government in Iran has no plan or way out of the crisis. Explaining that some of his previous comments about this had annoyed government officials, he said: "What I meant was that the Raisi administration lacks a strategic vision.”
Tehran announced on Saturday that it executed the former deputy defense minister, Alireza Akbari, after sentencing him to death on charges of spying for Britain’s MI6.
Before his death, an audio file was leaked where he claimed to have been tortured for 3,500 hours. Akbari said in the tape the regime had forced him to confess to crimes he had not committed.
Following the execution, The Sunday Telegraph said the UK is reconsidering its support for the 2015 nuclear deal known as the JCPOA, dealing another blow to the chances of reviving the accord. Britain has been a key player in the talks on restoring the Obama-era deal, abandoned by former US President Donald Trump.
The Sunday Telegraph cited senior – but unnamed -- British government sources as saying that the “landscape” has changed significantly since negotiations began in 2021, and as such Britain is now reviewing its options regarding its future involvement in renewing the deal.
“During the time we have been dealing with it, the landscape and proposition has completely changed – largely because of the behavior of the Iranian regime,” a government source said. The sources pointed out that the relationship with Tehran has been under severe strain in recent months due to its brutal repression of protests, ignited by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini. Meanwhile, Downing Street said “all options are under review” following the execution of Akbari.
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly has also announced a series of measures in response to the execution, including sanctioning the regime’s prosecutor general and summoning Iran’s charge d’affaires to convey Britain’s “disgust”. He said the sanctions show that the UK is serious about holding Iran to account for its “appalling human rights violations”.
The British ambassador to Iran has also been temporarily recalled to the UK for urgent talks about possible next steps. Cleverly is also set to travel to Washington DC on Monday for talks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken where the two will discuss Iran.
On Saturday, Rishi Sunak accused the regime of a “callous and cowardly act, carried out by a barbaric regime with no respect for the human rights of their own people”.
Ramin Forghani, Akbari’s nephew who fled to Luxembourg because of his opposition to the regime, has said that continuing the discussions with Iran would be “unthinkable”.
Britain is already drawing up plans to proscribe Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) as a terrorist organization.
Britain has also received support from the United States, France and Germany, all signatories of the JCPOA, in its condemnation of the execution.
Since negotiations to revive the nuclear deal or JCPOA broke down in September, the Biden administration and its European allies have put the talks on the backburner and even President Joe Biden said in early November that “JCPOA is dead.”
Akbari’s execution is a major escalation in tensions between the West and the Islamic Republic, which were already sour over Tehran’s crackdown on nationwide antigovernment protests and its military support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Akbari had been deputy defense minister under the reformist President Mohammad Khatami, from 1997 to 2005. He was an advocate of the Iran nuclear deal known as the JCPOA that was eventually signed in 2015 with world powers.
He was also close to Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran. A source close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has provided information to Iran International showing that the execution of Akbari is aimed at weakening Shamkhani’s position in the clerical regime. It seems that President Ebrahim Raisi, Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib and Interior Minister Ahmed Vahidi are exerting pressure to remove Shamkhani from the post.
The IRIB's budget for the Iranian year 1402 which starts on March 21, has grown by 42 percent compared to last year's budget.
Some observers have attributed the rise in the state TV's budget to IRIB Chief Payman Jebelli's development plans for the organization. But the 7-fold rise in IRIB's annual budget since 2018 or its 4-fold increase since the inauguration of President Ebrahim Raisi in 2021 can be explained as a way of helping the state television to cope with the sharp devaluation of Iranian currency.
The Raisi administration started with a rate of exchange for US dollar of 250,000 rials which has so far risen to around 400,000 rials.
Last year, the state TV's budget was larger than the budgets allocated of 16 government ministries. This year, it is more than the budget for any Iranian province other than the Fars Province. Nonetheless, according to many critics and media including Khabar Online its audience has been declining since 2017.
While the budgets of the education ministry or other essential institutions have in real terms declined because of the worthless rials they receive, the hardliners ruling in Iran have made sure their main propaganda and repression outfits are well compensated for the de facto devaluation of the national currency.
Despite this, IRIB's output has been decreasing. Some of the TV series made on hefty budgets has had only 16 percent popularity according to the IRIB's own research center. Meanwhile, the broadcaster had to pull several entertainment programs that TV host Reza Dorostkar called "rubbish".
But for the regime perhaps the more important thing is that IRIB broadcasts confessions of dissidents obtained under torture. Two of its so-called journalists are active interrogators of political prisoners.
The 42-percent rise in IRIB's budget becomes meaningful when we consider a minimal 20-percent salary increase for government employees in the face of an at least 50-percent inflation rate. An example of the extravagant rise in IRIB's budget is the amount allocated to the broadcaster's supervisory board which has only 6 members, all regime insiders. The budget for the supervisory board has increased from 70 billion rials two years ago to 90 billion rials last year and 145 billion rials for the coming Iranian year on March 21.
Nonetheless, the state TV is not the only organization receiving a hefty annual budget for the coming year. There are tens of religious and ideological propaganda organizations that are not accountable to anyone and have no checks and balances for their financial turnover.
According to economic journalists in Iran, The budget for Propaganda Office of the Qom Seminary has increased by 54.4 percent, The organization that runs Ruhollah Khomeini's tomb has received a 71.4 percent rise, the organizations that protects the relics of the 1980s war with Iraq received a 159.2 percent boost and the office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's representatives at the universities rose by over 40 percent.
Reports also say that among Iranian security organizations, the Intelligence Ministry got a 43 percent rise while the the police force got is 41 percent, the Army's Joint Chief of Staff got 32.5 percent, the IRGC 48 percent and the Basij 11.5 percent.
The substantially enlarged draft state budget, which is heavily dependent on tax revenues, will kickstart a month-long review of the bill before parliament holds a vote to approve it and turn it into a law. Last year the Majles changed some of the figures presented by the government in budget bill, but the parliament complained later that the Raisi administration spent the budget in its own way rather than sticking to the what the Majles had approved.