Last Day Of 2022 Can Signal New Phase Of Iran Protests
Iranians have planned a special protest rally for Saturday, December 31, while many started the protests Friday night, a day the regime sought to portray as a day of pro-government rallies.
Iranians have planned a special protest rally for Saturday, December 31, while many started the protests Friday night, a day the regime sought to portray as a day of pro-government rallies.
Iranians took to the streets Friday afternoon after the regime-sponsored pro-government gatherings ended. The Islamic Republic marked the anniversary of a large rally it organized in 2009 to silence opposition protests questioning the results of the presidential vote that year which reinstated Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for a second term.
But this year the pro-regime gatherings were too small to make dent in the popular mood to continue antigovernment protests.
Several cities big cities were scenes of demonstrations where people gathered to mourn for their loved ones killed in the past three months by security forces. It seemed that people were preparing for a larger protest on Saturday, December 31 in the capital Tehran. Calls on social media have urged people to march on Tehran’s main bazaar at 11:00 local time.
Iranians have been holding regular antigovernment protests against the clerical regime since September demanding an end to clerical rule and despotism and vowing to establish a secular political system.
The recent sharp fall in the value the Iranian currency has added a sense of urgency to intensify the protests, as many see a catastrophic jump in inflation in the coming weeks.
Anonymous grassroots groups have also been formed to organize rallies in different neighborhoods in metropolitans centers.
The grassroot group in Tehran has called for a march from all parts of the capital towards the city’s bazaar, where most of the people influential in the country’s economy have their businesses. This would be the first protest rally that has a single destination, serving as a milestone to the current uprising.
Bazaar or traditional retail market strikes have a deep historical root in Iran and signal a serious political and economic crisis. The bazaar strikes played a major role both in the Constitutional Revolution of the early 20th century and in the 1979 revolution against the monarchy.
The youth of Tehran's neighborhoods called on people to participate in the march towards Tehran's Grand Bazaar, saying, "In this difficult situation, we must stand up to support the merchants."
One of the main factors supporting the Islamic Revolution in 1978 was the support by the big merchants in bazaars, financially supporting the striking workers who added momentum to the protests.
The government has blamed the unrest on demonstrators it says are bent on destruction of public property and are trained and armed by the country's enemies including the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Separately, a rights group said at least 100 detained protesters in Iran faced possible death sentences.
"At least 100 protesters are currently at risk of execution, death penalty charges or sentences. This is a minimum as most families are under pressure to stay quiet, the real number is believed to be much higher," the Norway-based Iran Human Rights group said on its website.
Iranian courts have so far handed down death sentences in more than a dozen cases based on Islamic law charges such as "warring against God" after convicting protesters of killing or injuring security forces, destroying public property and terrorizing the public.
Several cities in the province of Sistan-Baluchestan, where most Sunni Baluch people live, were scenes of protests against the Islamic Republic on Friday while the regime also organized pro-government rallies in many cities across the country.
This was the 13th consecutive Friday that people in the Sunni-majority cities such as the provincial capital Zahedan and Khash held gatherings and chanted slogans against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard. As usual people poured into streets following Friday prayers.
Mowlavi Abdolhamid, the top religious leader of the Sunni Baluch, led the Friday prayer in Zahedan, and during his sermon criticized the regime’s arrest, sentencing and killing of children.
Elsewhere in his sermons, Abdolhamid debunked the Islamic Republic’s accusation of separatists among the protesters in Sistan and Baluchistan, saying that "We are staunch opponents of separatism. Baluch, Kurd, Arab, Persian, Turk, Turkmen, Lor, Gilak and all other ethnic groups are against separatism.” “All Iranians are one and together. Today, Iran smells of love," he added.
"We sympathize with all Iranians and all Iranians are dear to us; Muslims and non-Muslims, we must respect human rights and humanity. Jews, Christians, Baha'is and others should enjoy human rights. The law has not taken away the nationality of any person; even if he does not accept God," he said.
Pointing out that Baha'is are being persecuted by the Islamic Republic, Abdolhamid called for respect for the rights of "all Iranian citizens." Touching on the issue of apostasy verdicts for the Baha'is, he said that "The new generation of Baha’is were not Muslims who wanted to divert from Islam. They were born non-Muslims so they cannot be sentenced to apostasy."
Fereydun Vahman, Professor Emeritus at Copenhagen University, in an interview with International Friday praised Abdolhamid’s remarks and said he is a rare unifying force among Iran’s religious figures. He also hailed his ideas about equality of women and men as well as the equal rights for Baha’is.
Contrary to the Sunni cleric, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s representatives who led Friday prayers across the country, tried to focus on the pro-government commemorations, known in the state media as the occasion of “Day 9 Epic”, the ninth day of the Persian calendar month of Day, which falls on December 30.
Another issue discussed by Khamenei’s representatives – the so-called Friday prayer leaders – was the third death anniversary of Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, the former commander IRGC’s extraterritorial Quds Force. On January 3, 2020, the United States killed Soleimani, as well as the deputy commander of Iraq's popular mobilization units, Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis, in a drone strike near Baghdad International Airport.
The contents of Friday Prayer sermons delivered by clerics appointed by Khamenei in various cities are dictated by two state bodies reporting to his office, officially known as "The Policy-making Council for Friday Prayer Imams" and the "Friday Prayer Headquarters," both dominated by hardliner clerics.
Firebrand Iranian cleric Ahmad Khatami, a member of the Guardian Council, claimed that the Islamic Republic is “invincible,” saying that “dictators want to achieve their goals under the guise of democracy and the defense of women's rights and freedom." He added that the US’ intention to liberate women is to enslave them.
He also described the current wave of protests – which he calls riots – as the deepest conspiracy facing the regime. "In the events, for the first time, the Supreme Leader was insulted, which is actually insulting religion.” Khatami was referring to derogatory slogans chanted by protesters against Khamenei, that anger his religious followers.
The Association of Iranian Journalists expressed concern on Thursday that the administration of President Ebrahim Raisi is coordinating with the parliament to secretly pass bills that would restrict the activities of citizen journalists and criminalize any reporting deemed critical of the regime.
The plan that the members of parliament are pushing forward is cunningly titled “legal and judicial action against the spread of fake news in cyberspace” and the administration is simultaneously devising a bill called “the comprehensive bill of journalism.”
The association claims that they have not released the full texts, noting that by keeping regulations hidden from experts and journalists, they seek to prevent others from critiquing the measures.
Since there is no due process of law in Iranian courts for political trials, the government would be free to categorize even a simple tweet as a criminal act and issue a harsh verdict.
Culture Minister Mohammad Mehdi Esmaeili earlier announced that the bill had been approved by the government's cultural committee and would be sent to the parliament after the cabinet's review.
In its statement, the association of journalists described the measures as “in line with the intensification of restrictions on the flow of information in professional media and cyber sphere,” adding that they violate the rights and freedom of journalists.
The parliament is trying to pass the new plan as part of regulations that would enable the authorities to execute anyone who speaks or sends images to foreign media outlets. Since the current wave of protests began following the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, the authorities have been trying to restrict the spread of information both within the country and from inside the country to the international community.
The plan “to intensify the punishment of collaborators with the actions of hostile countries against national security and interests” describes any cooperation with “hostile countries, including the US government” as espionage. It considers any such cooperation as “corruption on earth,” which is punishable by death according to the Islamic Republic's Penal Code.
According to Article 286 of the Constitution, any serious disturbance in the public order, causing insecurity or major damage to people or public and private property, or spread of corruption or prostitution on a large scale, is considered a ‘corruption on earth’ offense and will lead to a death sentence.
Mobile phones and the Internet made it possible for citizens to record acts of violence and brutality by security forces, which was not possible two decades ago. This has exposed violations of citizens’ rights and has worried the Islamic Republic. A committee, comprised of representatives from Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Intelligence Ministry, Army and parliament’s National Security Committee, is tasked with determining those who are subject to the new law.
When finalized, the legislation would help the hardliner Judiciary to issue death sentences for anyone contacting foreign-based media. Not that the regime does have any reservations about issuing harsh verdicts to the protesters.
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said on Thursday that a court in the North Khorasan province has issued a one-year sentence for 40 people arrested during protests on charges of "propaganda against the regime and spreading lies". According to HRANA, some of the convicted people are juveniles, adding that their average age is between 16 and 20 years old.
The regime has already been describing the realities on the ground as “lies” and “conspiracies” instigated by foreign countries, but the new regulations would give them extra pretexts to prosecute citizens and journalists.
This was the question Etemad newspaper in Tehran asked its readers on December 28.
"We were all watching everything, and sociologists had warned us of the looming wave of protests. How could we miss such a big event? Etemad asked.
Many analysts as well as ordinary Iranians believe it was Mahsa Amini's death in ‘morality police’ custody that triggered the protests in mid-September, which still continue after three months.
Others, particularly Iranian reformists say the trigger was pulled long before when the firebrand Friday imam in Mashhad escalated his hard-line rhetoric in support of compulsory hijab and charged that those who opposed strict measures against bad-hijab women were fighting the holy prophet.
Alamolhoda was earlier accused of instigating the nationwide protest in December 2017 by provoking the people to stand against then-president Hassan Rouhani's economic policies. That protest went on for a couple of weeks in more than 85 cities, but the wave receded silently to rise once again louder and more widely in November 2019 in more than 100 cities.
Although Mahsa Amini, the young woman who was visiting Tehran where she was arrested, was an ordinary person, and Alamolhoda is one of the most powerful individuals in the ruling circles, observers say both were equally instrumental in bringing about the current wave of protests although they belonged to different extremes in the Iranian society.
Alamolhoda was later questioned by the Supreme Council of National Security for his role in the unrest, but he said he had no intention of provoking the people.
However, there was one sociologist in Iran in addition to dissidents who were predicting large-scale protests to the existing political, social repression and economic hardship.
Apparently, no one read Mohsen Goudarzi's Nov. 2020 article, Rebellious Citizen in Andisheh Pouya [Dynamic Thought] magazine. He had referred to continuous small protests by teachers, factory workers and retirees following the 2017 re-election of Rouhani. He argued that protests were taking place particularly in the provinces where the turnout and political participation were at their lowest.
The gunpowder barrel was there and was rolling toward the fire, but no one else saw it. The government, like always, attributed the protests to foreign powers and its only response was a harsh crackdown. In the meantime, reformists did nothing more than teasing the government for failing to keep everyone happy.
Goudarzi's hypothesis that was based on keen observation of political movements in Iran was also valid about 2021 that brought Ebrahim Raisi to power with even a lower turnout in large parts of the country.
The hardliners who won the parliament in a low-turnout election in 2020 and the presidency a year later, just cared about monopolizing power, not political participation.
"Nearly in all of those areas there were accrued dissatisfaction about draught and unemployment among other things to which the government reacted by using violence that often led to protesters' death," observed Goudarzi.
Another Iranian sociologist, Asef Bayat, later observed that a new class of poor people has emerged in Iran, adding that unlike the protests in 2009 that was led by the middle class, the protests in 2018 and 2019 were steered by the poor city dwellers who have been left to their own devices by the government.
The government is still in denial of the protests and calls them riots instigated by foreigners and vows to crash them violently as Raisi said on December 27. No one in the government appears to have listened to Goudarzi and other sociologists, and as Goudarzi has said himself, they refuse to accept that although protests may recede at times, but they will definitely return with a bigger bang.
As the dollar surpassed 430,000 rials , President Ebrahim Raisi replaced the chief of the Central Bank of Iran and ordered his economic team to come up with ideas to support the collapsing rial.
Raisi appointed Mohammad Reza Farzin as chief banker. Farzin, who has been the CEO of Bank Melli Iran since last year, was also chairman of the board of Karafarin Bank before that.
During the cabinet meeting where Farzin was appointed, Raisi stressed the importance of controlling the value of foreign currencies, asking central bank chief to “manage” the situation.
Since the current wave of protests began in Iran in mid-September the rial has fallen to record lows, losing more than a third of its value against the dollar, fueling inflation of around well over 50 percent. The rial has now lost about 80 percent of its value compared to mid-2021 and close to 50 percent since December 2021. Inflation is also skyrocketing. Food prices have jumped much faster than the overall inflation, with some items registering 100-percent increase in one year.
The impact of rial’s devaluation is still not fully felt in the market, but Iran faces the danger of hyper inflation in the coming months.
On Wednesday, Khabar Online, an Iranian conservative website published an article that said the historic devaluation has proven to be divisive among the country’s hardliners. Hardliners in parliament and some in the military have begun harshly criticizing the presidential administration that they were praising just recently.
Numerous officials and insiders, including senior clerics are issuing warnings about the rial’s fall that puts people’s livelihoods in jeopardy, but no one is willing to take responsibility.
Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, said, "The dollar rise and rial’s fall is one of the plots by the Americans," adding that the US wants people to be fed up with the economic hardships so they took to streets to protest.
He was probably referring to tough sanctions imposed by the United States since 2018, when the Trump administration withdrew from the Obama-era nuclear accord known as the JCPOA. The Biden administration held talks with Iran for 18 months to revive the agreement but the diplomatic effort stalled in late August, because Tehran made unacceptable demands, according to Washington.
Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi claimed that "There is plenty of foreign currency in the country," a statement which might anger ordinary people even more, who would blame the government for not supporting the rial.
Professor of Economics at California Lutheran University Jamshid Damooei, described the situation as an unprecedented “economic storm” whose root cause is the lack of confidence in the government’s economic policies. He told Iran International that the majority of the Islamic Republic’s income has always been from selling oil, which has been impeded due to US sanctions. Rial’s fall will lead to higher inflation, which in turn will drag the currency lower, he argued.