Iran Crisis May Last Long With No Prospect Of An Early End
The prospect of long-term protests are beginning to emerge in the Iranian media, with some arguing that there is no bright prospect for an end to the crisis.
The prospect of long-term protests are beginning to emerge in the Iranian media, with some arguing that there is no bright prospect for an end to the crisis.
Protesters’ demands have gone beyond partial reforms, and they just want an end to the Islamic Republic’s clerical, authoritarian rule. There are no constitutional or institutional mechanisms to resolve the conflict.
The first execution of a protester on Thursday also signalled that the regime is not looking for any compromise and has decided to amplify violence to subdue the people.
Meanwhile, political scientist Ahmad Banijamali told Khabar Online that "Institutionalized denial of the problem is the most important obstacle for ending the ongoing crisis in the Iranian society."
He said, "the protests have led to an impasse and there is no bright prospect for the future. In the absence of civil institutions such as trade unions and political parties, strategic mistakes in the analysis of the situation by the people and the government can lend a new momentum to the crisis." He also pointed out that it is dangerous that elements who are not part of the political structure can determine the direction of events.
Banijamali added: "Political systems need to have very important tools that can take them out of a crisis: Institutions to end disputes and begin a move toward a compromise, such as powerful social institutions such as political parties, trade unions, guilds, and civil institutions."
He stressed that the Islamic Republic has eliminated all these mediation mechanisms and as a result, the government faces a shapeless mass that lacks any institution. So, even if it is really interested to negotiate, it does not know who it needs to turn to for facilitating the process."
Banijamali further explained that the powerhouse of the Islamic Republic has traditionally been a chaotic system marked by anarchy. “This is a non-functional system in which status groups, pressure groups and wealthy entities hold a piece of the cake. At the same time, creation of unnecessary institutions has increased the system's inefficiency." He added that conflict of interests between different parts of the system has made decision-making impossible, particularly over significant matters."
Banijamali added that "in this situation, it is not clear who is going to put an end to the dispute as the opposition has always been in an antagonistic conflict with the system, political forces such as reformists and moderates have been discredited by radicals in the system and the society no longer accepts them as its own voice. It is a scary situation in which the institutions that should have been at the top and bottom of the society are absent and radical elements are there to lend momentum to the crises."
This week news emerged that the Fajr Film Festival which is usually held to mark the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in mid-February, might not take place, signaling that the ongoing uprising is not likely to end in the next three months.
Reza Dorostkar, the deputy director of the Iranian Film Critics Association said in an interview that "Under the current circumstances, the Fajr Film Festival should not be held this year."
Like some other Iranian film industry figures, film critics have said in a statement that in view of "bitter and unpleasant events of recent months," they prefer not to take part in this year's festival while suggesting that the festival should not be held at all this February.
France's foreign ministry spokesperson said that the European Union is set to approve new sanctions targeting Tehran over human rights abuses in its crackdown on protesters in the country as well as supplying Russia with weapons to be used in the invasion of Ukraine.
Condemning the execution in the “strongest terms,” Anne-Claire Legendre told reporters that “This execution comes on top of other serious and unacceptable violations.”
She added that foreign ministers would discuss new designations on individuals and entities involved in the crackdown and entities exporting drones to Russia. The EU has already imposed two rounds of sanctions since October in the form of asset freezes and travel bans.
Earlier on Thursday, the Islamic Republic hanged Mohsen Shekari, a young protester convicted of injuring a security guard with a knife and closing off a street in the capital Tehran. Nationwide protests that erupted after the death of 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman Mahsa Amini on September 16 represent one of the biggest challenges to the Islamic Republic since its establishment in 1979. So far, around 500 civilians have been killed by security forces and at least 18,000 arrested. While many have been released, around 1,500 face criminal charges, and at least 80 detainees face the death sentence.
State Department Spokesperson Ned Price described the execution as "a grim escalation in the regime’s attempt to suppress dissent and quash these protests.” Expressing condolences to his loved ones, he denounced the “draconian sentences and the denial of due process to the accused in the strongest terms.”
Condemning the execution, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock described the Iranian regime's contempt for humanity as “boundless," saying that Shekari was “tried and executed in a perfidious summary trial because he disagreed with the regime. But the threat of execution will not stifle people's desire for freedom.”
Vice-President of the German Parliament Katrin Göring-Eckardt tweeted, "Mohsen Shekari was only 23. The Iranian regime executed him for taking to the streets for a free Iran. It reacts with all (un)imaginable brutality to protests. The death penalty is contrary to human rights, everywhere."
UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly also expressed outrage, and called on the world not to “turn a blind eye to the abhorrent violence committed by the Iranian regime against its own people.”
Norway’s Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt also denounced the execution, and called on the regime to immediately halt executions, and to end the repression of fundamental freedoms.
Javaid Rahman, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on human rights in Iran, also said that he is “absolutely horrified, shocked and outraged by the news,” calling on Iranian authorities to immediately stop the use of death penalty as a weapon against protesters.
Vice-President of the European Parliament Pina Picierno said, “It is the first insane death sentence carried out on a protester in Iran,” and reiterated that the EU will always be “on the side of freedom, on the side of the protesters.”
Former Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallström urged the international community to be the voice of Iranians, saying that Sweden and the EU must take action quickly to save others. “The International community needs to speak out loud and clear against this.”
Human rights groups are also condemning the execution. Amnesty International urged the world to make Iranian authorities halt all planned executions and stop using the death penalty as tool of political repression against protesters in their attempt to end the popular uprising. It added that Shekari's execution "[exposed] the inhumanity of Iran's so-called justice system as dozens of others face the same fate".
"The international community must immediately and strongly react to this execution," Mahmood Amiri-Moghaddam, director of the Norway-based group Iran Human Rights, said in a statement, adding, “If Mohsen Shekari's execution is not met with serious consequences for the government, we will face mass execution of protesters.”
Two diplomatic sources told Reuters that the new EU sanctions were expected to be approved and adopted on Monday. According to one of the sources, 21 individuals and one entity would be sanctioned over human rights abuses, while there had been 10 proposals on the drone side.
Spearheaded by Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), the resolution condemned the Islamic Republic’s security forces for their violent response to Iranian citizens who have taken to the streets for their fundamental human rights.
An identical resolution was also introduced in the House of Representatives by Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.), Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.), and Michael McCaul (R-Texas), Ranking Member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
The text of the resolution acknowledges common protest chants on streets, including "Women, life, freedom!"; “Iranians die but will not be suppressed!” and “Death to the dictator” referring to Iran’s ruler Ali Khamenei.
The resolution is aimed at garnering support for internationally coordinated measures against the regime, calling for continued efforts to hold those violating human rights accountable, including through additional sanctions. It also specifically stressed the importance for the United States government and the broader international community to provide additional support for access to digital communications and internet freedom given reports that the regime is blocking internet access out of fear of its citizens.
Hailing the popular uprising of Iranians, Menendez said, “Nearly three months since the brutal detention, beating, and murder of Mahsa Amini, the courage and defiance the Iranian people continue to display in the face of the regime’s brutality has served as an extraordinary example for all of us and everyone around the world who believes all people deserve a say in their livelihoods and way of life.”
He also expressed hope that the Congressional approval of this bipartisan, bicameral resolution will “help amplify the voices of the hundreds of thousands of women and men of Iran who are protesting against the brutality of one of the world’s most repressive regimes.”
Calling on the international community to stand with the people of Iran, Menendez said he is committed to keep the Committee’s spotlight on the Iranian regime’s crackdowns, shutdowns, and deflections in response to the demands of the Iranian people.
Menendez was among the first Democrat lawmakers who had spoken out against the Biden administration's Iran policy and ongoing nuclear talks earlier this year. Stressing the need for a new Iran strategy and an end to negotiations with Iran to restore the JCPOA, the powerful Senate Democrat demanded that Biden should enforce oil export sanctions currently on the books against Iran. Since Biden’s election Tehran has increased its oil exports to nearly one million barrels a day, mostly in illicit shipments to China.
Endorsing the new resolution, Senator Blackburn said, “Many brave Iranians fighting for their basic human rights are brutally murdered or taken to prison, where they endure harrowing torture until they are executed,” while Senator Bill Cassidy (R-La.) said, “Iranians are struggling for their freedom,”
“Every day, we learn more about the Iranian regime and the lengths they will go to retain power and control. The Iranian people’s fight for equal rights and freedom has been heard around the world as they push back against violent security forces. The bravery of the Iranian citizens cannot be overstated, and we stand with them in their peaceful protests against their tyrannical government,” said Senator Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.).
Ben Cardin (D-Md.) also commended Iranians for “standing up against an oppressive, corrupt regime,” adding that “Iran’s murderous crackdown on peaceful protesters deserves universal condemnation.”
The measures came a few hours before the Islamic Republic executed the first detained protester who was convicted of injuring a security guard with a knife and closing off a street in the capital Tehran.
So far, around 500 civilians have been killed by security forces and at least 18,000 arrested. While many have been released, around 1,500 face criminal charges, and at least 80 detainees face the death sentence.