US Condemns Iran Upping Nuclear Enrichment At Fordow Plant

In an address to a conference of Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, Major-General Aharon Haliva said Monday he saw “at this point time… no real danger to the regime” from domestic protests but that “the moment is coming…when Iran entertains enrichment at 90 precent, even if only symbolically.” He said this would present “the greatest test of the international community.”

Shortly before leaving office 2021, then president Hassan Rouhani said Tehran had reached the capacity to enrich to 90 percent, and would do so “if one day our reactors need it.” This was just two years after Iran began enriching above 3.67 percent, the limit set by the 2015 nuclear agreement abandoned by the United States in 2018.

While 90-percent-enriched uranium can be used in some research reactors to produce medical isotopes, Rouhani’s remarks were seen as an attempt to secure leverage in talks to revive the 2015 agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), and so remove US ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions introduced in 2018.

Israeli leaders opposed the JCPOA and have criticized talks aimed at reviving it, while Israel is generally thought responsible, since 2010, for a series of killings of Iranian scientists and attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, which have inflicted damage but also hardened attitudes in Tehran.

‘On the whole field, from nuclear to riots’

While some analysts and security officials in Israel have seen the over-riding dangers of nuclear proliferation as a reason to support the JCPOA, Haliva’s address Monday reflected a view of Iran as wider threat. “Iran is on the whole field, from nuclear to riots,” he said, claiming Tehran had considered disrupting the soccer World Cup, which started Sunday in Qatar.

“The only thing holding them back is how the Qataris will react,” Haliva said, presumably referring to Tehran’s generally good relations with Doha, which has sometimes mediated between Iran and the US. Monday saw Iran lose their opening game in the World Cup 6-2 to England.

Haliva said that current protests in Iran, which began mid-September, were different to earlier ones: “I think the protests have already shifted, to a degree, to the realm of a popular uprising…When you look at some of the incidents, even the hours at which they are taking place, the damage to national institutions, to symbols of the state, at the number of fatalities, there is something different happening here that is greatly troubling the regime.”

But while he suggested “prophecy, in the context of the conduct of societies,” was not the role of military intelligence, Haliva cautioned against expecting any dramatic changes in the near future. “At this point in time I see no real danger to the regime,” he said.

Mohammad Eslami, a vice-President and head of the Atomic Energy Agency of Iran, promised Saturday a “firm answer” to Thursday’s United States-sponsored resolution censuring Tehran at the governing board of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Speaking in Esfahan, Eslami evoked the “self-sacrifice” of the 23,000 “martyrs” from the province who died in the 1980-88 war with Iraq.

This was not the only talk this week of war. In a piece headlined ‘The Post Iran nuclear deal world won’t be pretty’ in the influential US magazine Foreign Policy, columnist Anchal Vohra suggested the US, or “the West,” could “even consider direct military intervention” to curb Iran’s nuclear program. Short of that, Vohra wrote, US might be “accelerating” supply to Israel of refueling tankers and other equipment that could assist an Israel strike on Iran.

Incoming Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose government will include members of the Religious Zionism party, will inherit developed plans for attacking Iran, outgoing defense minister Benny Gantz said November 9. Recent reports have suggested the US is opposing the appointment of Religious Zionism leader Bezalel Smotrich to the defense portfolio.

Vohra’s Foreign Policy analysis, which drew on one published by Iran International in September, suggested that steps to pressure Iran, as military preparations were made, might include greater efforts on penalizing Chinese entities importing Iranian oil and petroleum products.

But in an informal survey of analysts, Vohra found little expectation that such steps would change Iran’s approach to the talks, which began April 2021, to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). Tehran has drawn ‘red lines’ that it shows no sign of erasing. These include ‘guarantees’ of economic measures to cushion Iran against the US later leaving a revised agreement, and insisting that the International Atomic Energy drop enquiries into uranium traces found in sites linked to Iran’s nuclear work before 2003.

JCPOA: dead or comatose?

The US argument that such ‘red lines’ go beyond the JCPOA left the analysts surveyed by Vohra divided as the whether the JCPOA was dead or comatose. “While in a deep coma…none of the parties wants to declare it dead, which would be an admission of foreign-policy failure,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, associate fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “It is hard to imagine that the deal could be restored,” said Ali Vaez, senior advisor at the International Crisis Group.

While President Joe Biden maintains his intention is to work diplomatically to revive the JCPOA – and that he is continuing ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions purely to that end – the Republican Party’s capture of the House of Representatives after the November 8 elections may well see growing Congressional opposition to the 2015 agreement, especially with so much focus on current protests in Iran and on Tehran’s supply of military drones used by Russia in Ukraine.

Vohra suggested that both the US and Iran may feel their leverage is growing. Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi told the United Nations General Assembly in September that Tehran had neutralized ‘maximum pressure’ in many cases. Some Iranian analysts also argue that looming energy shortages due to curbs on Russian exports may incentivize European states to seek JCPOA revival as a way to lift sanctions on Iran’s crude oil.

‘Threat to Europe’

But the European signatories of the JCPOA – France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – as well as the European Union, which has chaired JCPOA revivals talks, are showing greater affinity with the US and a growing reluctance to deal diplomatically with a Tehran linked closer to Russia. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, Friday played down the challenge over energy supplies while arguing that Iran’s “weapons proliferation” was a threat to Europe. 

“It took us too long to understand a very simple fact that while we work to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, we must also focus on other forms of weapons proliferation, from drones to ballistic missiles,” she said. “It is a security risk not just for the Middle East, but for us all.”

Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization said that the resolution will not help solve existing problems and it will draw a strong response from Iran.

“It seems the European troika [UK, France and Germany] and the United States are accustomed to using various methods of pressure, including resolutions and sanctions, and it is clear that such pressures will be ineffective,” added Eslami during a speech in the city of Isfahan.

The IAEA board of governors passed a new resolution Thursday criticizing Iran over insufficient cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Eslami went on to say that Iran’s nuclear program is developing according to the strategic action law of the parliament, and resolutions against Iran will not cause any disruption in the development of these programs. He was referring to a 2020 law that mandated a high degree of uranium enrichment.

Introduced by the United States, and the E3 – France, Germany and the United Kingdom – the resolution called on the Iranian regime to cooperate with the IAEA’s investigation into traces of uranium found at several undeclared sites used two decades ago.

Resolution of the so-called "safeguards" investigations is critical to the UN watchdog, which seeks to ensure parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty are not secretly diverting nuclear material which they could use to make a weapon.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Friday said Tehran is teaming up with its biggest ally, Moscow, to destabilize “our global order” by deploying weapons such as drones to Russia.

Speaking at Manama Dialogue conference in Bahrain, she noted that “Several Gulf countries have been warning for years about the risk that Iran feeds rogue nations around the world with drones.”

“It took us too long to understand a very simple fact that while we work to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, we must also focus on other forms of weapons’ proliferation, from drones to ballistic missiles,” added von der Leyen.

“It is a security risk not just for the Middle East, but for us all,” she underlined.

The European Union sanctioned 29 Iranians and three entities Monday over what it said was human rights violations related to suppression of ongoing protests.

A statement issued in Brussels, where foreign ministers met, said the move was over “their role in the death of Mahsa Amini and the violent response to the recent demonstrations in Iran.”

Iranian regime has warned of a “proportionate and firm” response to the EU over these sanctions.

However, von der Leyen hinted at more sanctions, expressing “We are coordinating with partners and allies to take further sanctions against Iran responding to the proliferation of Iranian drones.”

The Islamic Republic has admitted it has provided drones to Russia claiming that they were sent to Russia months before the Ukrainian war.

The motion – drafted by the France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States – focused on uranium traces found in sites used before 2003 but never declared as nuclear-related. Tehran has said the IAEA’s line of questioning came after Israeli allegations made in 2018 and should be dropped as a condition for reviving the lapsed 2015 Iran nuclear agreement.

A US statement said that if Iran failed “to provide the cooperation necessary,” the IAEA governors’ board “will have to be prepared to take further action.” The statement cited an article in the agency statutes that allows for referral to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

A similar vote passed the 35-member board in June by 30 votes to two, with three abstentions from India, Libya, and Pakistan. Thursday’s motion was backed by 26 member states, with two voting against, five abstentions, and two absent. Mikhail Ulyanov, Russian ambassador to United Nations bodies in Vienna including the IAEA, tweeted that “from the Russian viewpoint” this was “better than in June.”

Russia and China have argued that raising resolutions at the IAEA board harms efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), and will encourage Iranian intransigence. After June’s vote, Iran removed IAEA monitoring equipment including surveillance cameras installed under the JCPOA.

Moscow and Beijing say the primary responsibility for restoring the JCPOA lies with Washington, which unilaterally left the agreement in 2018 and began ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions that prompted Iran by 2019 to expand its nuclear program beyond JCPOA limits.

While the US might succeed at a subsequent board meeting in referring Iran to the UNSC there is scant chance of a repeat of 2006, when Russia and China agreed at the council to the UN sanctions against Iran that were largely lifted in 2015 when the JCPOA was agreed.

Technical meeting in doubt

A ‘technical’ meeting earlier proposed by Iran for later this month to discuss the uranium traces remains in doubt after a statement from Tehran’s nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami Wednesday. IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi has emphasized the importance of restoring fuller IAEA access in Iran, which Tehran has reduced right before the Vienna talks to restore the JCPOA began in April 2021. Grossi is also insisting Iran is obliged to explain the uranium traces, regardless of the JCPOA talks, under its basic commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

While the US administration of President Joe Biden took office committed to revive the JCPOA it has failed to agree terms with Iran. Multilateral and bilateral talks lasting 18 months have stalled over which US sanctions contravene the 2015 agreement and whether Iran should have ‘guarantees’ to cushion against a second US withdrawal.

Rob Malley, the US Iran envoy said this week the US had lost focus over the JCPOA because of Iran supplying military drones to Russia and its treatment of domestic protestors. French President Emmanuel Macron Monday, just days after suggesting a ‘revolution’ was underway in Iran, suggested that a wider agreement with Tehran was more feasible than JCPOA restoration, so rejecting the view of the JCPOA as a first step to wider progress but itself a valuable non-proliferation measure.