Many Call For Dialogue In Iran But Khamenei Camp Not Moved
Iranian hardliners in control of parliament and government mostly advocate a harsh response to protests but even among them there are some who call for dialogue.
Iranian hardliners in control of parliament and government mostly advocate a harsh response to protests but even among them there are some who call for dialogue.
On the same day when 227 members of Iran’s parliament (Majles) called for death sentence for those arrested during recent protests, Iran's Minister of Tourism and Cultural Heritage, Ezzatollah Zarghami, advocated dialogue between the government and the protesters, highlighting some chaos and indecision in the ruling circles.
Speaking in a meeting with Sharif University students Sunday, Zarghami, a former Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) officer who was once Iran's culture minister and the head of the country's state television, admitted that "Some of the approaches of Iranian officials are wrong but they fear the regime will face a serious danger if they put a step back from their position.”
Referring to the news of young Iranian knocking Shiite clerics' turbans off their heads, Zarghami said these are low-income clerics who are paying for the luxurious lifestyle of rich mullahs.
He insisted that Iran needs reforms and many members of the elite have warned the government about this. "Many others warned about the morality police and said what they were doing was wrong," he said.
Public statements by many officials, such as Zarghami, show they are still stuck in the perception that if hijab enforcement is relaxed, protests will end, but what protesters say in the streets is that they have passed that stage and want the regime to fall.
Zarghami who has been active on social media for years, acknowledged that Iranians no longer trust the official media, and journalist do not write some of what is going on in the society, fearing government reprisal. He admitted that "You cannot say anything [in Iran] if there is no social media."
He criticized officials, without naming anyone, for failing to understand the people and their anger, and said he himself was frustrated because of the way his candidacy in the 2021 presidential election was handled.
In one of the most controversial comments he made in the presence of the students, he said: "When you look at some financial corruption cases, you will see that individuals from all parts of the establishment are involved in it."
But why Zarghami can say these things and get away while other officials do not? Perhaps one of the reasons is that others have no ambition for the future and simply wish to protect what they have. But Zarghami, more likely, still wants to be Iran's next president and having smelled the need for change, he probably thinks the regime will have no choice other than surrendering to some of the protesters' demands. By trying to talk to Sharif University Students who have been in the forefront of the protests, he is touting himself as the man who can make peace with Iran's angry young men and women. But the question is to what extent hardliners in the core of the regime, and students in the forefront of protests, would listen to him.
Reformist cultural activist Hadi Khaniki has likened the need to hold dialogue with the youth to chemotherapy to cure a cancer patient. "It is painful and hard, but it might have some good effect," Khaniki told Etemad Online website. A cancer patient himself, Khaniki said: "The country has a cancer which has its roots among top-level officials and if no one pays any attention to that, the cancer will spread to the other parts of the system.
In another development, Hassan Khomeini, the ambitious grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khmomeini, the fundamentalist founder of the Islamic Republic suggested in an interview Etemad Online that "The government had better begin to listen to the people." He said if the situation develops into a deadlock, our only way out would be to seek democratic solutions. He ignored the fact that he has got his position of wealth and power through non-democratic ways, in a hereditary system.
The most urgent problem is a fast-falling national currency that began to nosedive in early November, dropping to historic lows almost on daily basis. The US dollar has risen from 295,000 rials to 365,000 in two months. But that is just an early signal of what is to come.
The retail sector is having its own multiple problems. First, during protests people are buying less, as recently the garment industry complained of very low sales to consumers who are in no mood to go shopping.
Second, a draconian denial of access to the Internet by the government, to contain the protests, has badly hurt hundreds of thousands of small businesses dependent on sales through social media.
Third, Iranian consumers have begun boycotting large retailers and businesses believed to be controlled by the Revolutionary Guard and other regime entities, as another tool in their civil disobedience movement.
Digikala, Iran’s Amazon, and Mihan dairy and food company have been targeted by activists on social media, who tell the people not to enrich the government’s suppression machine. In a matter of days, there are signs of lower sales by both companies, which sponsored appeals from their workers who asked the public not to harm their livelihoods.
Fourth, and the perhaps the most predictable is a looming shortage of natural gas in the winter, as pressure in Iran’s South Pars maritime fields in the Persian Gulf are gradually falling. The country has failed to secure capital and western technology to improve drilling and pumping system to boost production.
Iran has the world’s second largest natural gas reserves after Russia with almost 30 trillion cubic meters of potential supply, but it needs to invest $50 billion and use special technology only a few western firms can provide to keep its level of daily production at around 700 million cubic meters.
The former head of the national gas company, Hamidreza Eraghi told ILNA news website in Tehran on November 7, that this winter the country might be forced to buy gas from Turkmenistan to be able to supply electricity and keep industries in business. Already, in the past few years as consumption has risen, there have been both shortages of electricity and gas. The government sells energy at ridiculously cheap rates and consumers have no incentive to save, with usage fast increasing each year.
There are also ongoing strikes in the oil and gas sectors in solidarity with nationwide protests, which will further hurt production.
What Iran needs most is imported technology for horizontal drilling for gas, Eraghi said, and this winter imports should increase to prevent an industrial shutdown.
The government has periodically highlighted the need to boost prices to lower consumption, but that would anger a public that has become impoverished in the past four years after the United States imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. Already, with nationwide antigovernment protests raging, the government has no way to increase energy prices.
Ordinary Iranians have fallen victim to high inflation rate for years. No one knows exactly what the current annual inflation rate is, but if one would believe the government, it is at least 40 percent, with food prices having risen by 100 percent in the past 12 months. The falling national currency will accelerate inflation as Iran imports a significant part of its food and raw materials.
With a convergence of so many negative economic developments there is very little the regime can do to stop the protesters, who openly say they want to get rid of the Islamic Republic, not only for its economic mismanagement but also for its draconian denial of social freedoms.
In a short article published Monday by Iran Daily, the official mouthpiece of the government, the Islamic Republic threatened the UAE of consequences over its lack of action to stop spectators who chanted slogans against the Islamic Republic after a match between the Iranian and Emirati national teams in Dubai on Saturday.
Criticizing the UAE police for a lack of confrontation with the people, the paper said that the UAE government’s attitude is “not compatible with good neighborliness.”
It added that “if the country does not react appropriately [against spectators], it must accept the consequences of this anti-Iranian action,” threatening that UAE will soon see “the consequences of this hostile action.”
The Iranian beach football federation also issued a statement to downplay the protest by Iranian spectators, describing them as “unwise and opportunistic.”
The federation also threatened the players of the national squad for their acts of solidarity with the current wave of antigovernment protests, ignited by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the hands of the hijab – or ‘morality’ -- police.
The national team players did not cheer or celebrate after winning the cup following their final victory against Brazil and also refused to sing the national anthem of the Islamic Republic at the beginning of their semifinal match against the UAE.
During the final, Iranian striker Saeed Piramoun expressed his solidarity with Iranian protesters by miming the hair cutting gesture after scoring a goal, a move that has drawn enormous appreciation by Iranian social media users and renowned footballers alike. His move has also inspired several graffiti and digital art pieces.
While the national anthem was being played before the match started, Iranian players seemed to have been forced to sing along this time, but the Iranians present at the stadium kept booing until it ended.
Vowing to punish the players, the Islamic Republic’s federation said according to regulations by world football governing body FIFA, players should avoid "any political act." It said some of the players did not observe "professional ethics."
Mentioning FIFA’s regulations is unexpected from the Islamic Republic’s authorities who have been ignoring such rules when it comes to allowing women into stadiums or female referees to officiate matches in men’s leagues.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has expressed concern over possible problems that may happen during the FIFA World Cup scheduled to open later in the month. Earlier in November, he tasked the Foreign Ministry to contact Qatari officials regarding the issue to find ways “to predict and prevent possible problems."
Earlier in the month, FIFA President Gianni Infantino wrote to the World Cup teams asking them to concentrate on soccer in Qatar and not let ideological “battles” be dragged into football fields. “We know football does not live in a vacuum and we are equally aware that there are many challenges and difficulties of a political nature all around the world… [but] at FIFA, we try to respect all opinions and beliefs, without handing out moral lessons to the rest of the world,” Infantino said in his letter.
He wrote the letter in reaction to calls by a group of Iranian sports personalities and lawyers who have requested FIFA to eliminate Islamic Republic’s team from the World Cup.
Sosha Makani, the ex-goalkeeper of Iran’s national team told Iranians in a video on his Instagram late in October that it is wrong to go to Qatar to watch football matches because the Iranian regime will exploit their presence in stadiums to tell the world they support the Islamic Republic.
Since March, many Iranians have been urging FIFA to ban Team Melli from the World Cup for forcibly barring women from entering stadiums to watch matches. Under FIFA pressure, Iranian authorities started to let in a cherrypicked group of women so they would not face bans and penalties. However, since the start of the current uprising and a lackluster support from the national squad, the calls on FIFA to ban Iran have become stronger.