Details Of Nuclear Deal Emerge As Iran Demands An End To IAEA Probe

Calling the EU’s text of August 8, currently being discussed between the United States and Iran a “bad agreement,” Lapid claimed it had departed from what US President Joe Biden July had told Israel to anticipate.

The Israeli government, presumably after seeing the EU text, was then perturbed. “We told the Americans: ‘This is not what President Biden wanted.’ This is not what he talks about during his visit to the country,” Lapid said.

The Israeli prime minister claimed only last week that Israel had pushed the US into a harder negotiating position over reviving the 2015 agreement, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which successive Israeli governments have opposed.

But Lapid, four months away from an Israeli election, suggested Sunday that Israel had been unable to “introduce amendments to the agreement” because of a speech made to Congress in March 2015 by former prime minister and political rival Benjamin Netanyahu. While Netanyahu had compared the US and Israel as “promised lands,” US officials slammed as a cheap election ploy his claim that theJCPOA, which came into play July 2015, would ‘guarantee’ Iran a nuclear weapon.

Lapid said the aim of the coalition government that replaced Netanyahu’s administration in 2021, with Lapid as prime minister since July 2022, had been to “fight against the agreement with all our might, but without harming our strategic relations with the US, and without harming their attention to our arguments."

Arguments in Israel may intensify as talks to revive the JCPOA have reached what Joseph Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, called the “the crucial moment” in an interview published Sunday with Kronen Zeitung, the leading Austrian newspaper. “I’m optimistic, it’s the last millimeters,” Borrell said. “This [restoring the 2015 agreement] makes the world a little safer.”

Nasser Kanaani, spokesman for the Iranian foreign minister, told the official news agency IRNA Sunday that the latest US input, relayed by the EU August 24, was being reviewed technically and that Tehran would reply “as soon as the summary is formed and the details are checked.” Nour News tweeted this would take until “at least” the end of the week, presumably meaning Friday September 2.

Official news agency dismisses ‘false’ report

Kanaani called for all to respect the confidentiality of talks, which were on a “positive and forward trend” despite a “few remaining issues” that were “sensitive, important and decisive.” IRNA separately quoted an “informed source” criticizing the newspaper Jomhuriyeh Eslami for Sunday’s article claiming Tehran had in the talks demanded that Washington compel “western” companies to trade with Iran.

The newspaper’s story was “totally false,” the source told IRNA, suggesting that Iranian media relaying “wrong claims” from foreign media designed to “put pressure on Iran” were in effect becoming a “base for the enemy.”

Qatar has also continued mediation efforts. Mohammed bin Abdulaziz bin Saleh Al-Khulaifi, an assistant foreign minister, met Saturday with Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani. The Qatari foreign ministry said he had stressed “the importance of advancing further in order to revive the nuclear agreement which is in the interest of the security and stability of the region.” Following discussions with Bagheri Kani, Khulaifi spoke by phone with Enrique Mora, the EU official who has coordinated the nuclear talks.

Axios correspondent Barak Ravid quoted a senior Israeli official as saying on Sunday that David Barnea will attend closed door classified meetings of House and Senate intelligence committees.

In remarks that were not coordinated with Prime Minister Yair Lapid, the spymaster described the emerging agreement "a strategic disaster" for Israel and the United States “is rushing into an accord that is ultimately based on lies,” referring to Iran’s claim that its nuclear activities are peaceful in nature.

Shortly after Barnea’s comments were published, Lapid called the Mossad chief, telling him he had gone off script in his criticism of the US and asking for a clarification.

Barnea’s visit is the latest effort by Israel to sway Western powers from returning to the landmark accord. 

Earlier in the day, Lapid said that Israel's “diplomatic fight” against the deal included its National Security Adviser Eyal Hulata and Defense Minister Benny Gantz holding recent meetings in the US.

“We are making a concerted effort to ensure the Americans and Europeans understand the dangers involved in this agreement,” Lapid said, reiterating that what was signed in 2015 was “not a good deal,” and that the one currently being discussed entails “greater dangers.”

Lapid and US President Joe Biden are likely to meet in September, Israel’s Kan news reported on Saturday, citing unnamed officials. 

Iran is currently reviewing the US response to its position earlier sent to the European Union, which acts as a mediator between the two sides.

The conservative government-controlled Jomhuriyeh Eslami (Islamic Republic) newspaper on Sunday published parts of the US response to Iran’s demands that were sent through the European Union mediators. The newspaper said that the text was published on “media”, which means it might have been leaked on social media, and there is no certainty if indeed it reflects the contents of the secret US response.

According to Jomhuriyeh Eslami, the US appears to have rejected three demands deemed important by Iran.

The newspaper adds that if indeed the leaked text reflects the American response, then 16 months of nuclear talks have again hit a snag and there won’t be a signing ceremony soon.

One Iranian demand related to guarantees it has been seeking was accepted, and that is submitting the new deal to the US Congress for approval. But this vague alleged promise by the Biden Administration does not say if the agreement will be submitted to the Senate or to both houses of Congress. It also does not say in what legal format the issue will be put to vote.

If it is true that there will be a vote in Congress, what if the agreement fails to pass in the Senate where Republicans can garner a majority on this issue. Even if the agreement is presented for a non-binding vote and it fails, the purpose of giving a guarantee to Iran will be defeated.

The Biden Administration has rejected an Iranian demand for the US to guarantee that Western companies will do business with Iran. The alleged American response has said that the US will permit all companies, except those under sanctions, to deal with Iran, but it cannot force private companies to interact with the Islamic Republic.

Iranian negotiators are well aware that a Western government cannot force private firms to do business with a country if they do not want to, and one can assume that this demand is probably made to be rejected, so Tehran can ask for something else.

The second Iranian demand rejected by the Biden Administration is about the US issuing insurance for multinational companies that would do business with Iran after the agreement. Iran demanded that if the United States withdraws form the nuclear deal again, these corporations be compensated. Washington has responded that this is beyond the powers of the President, and Biden can only give his official assurances as long as he remains the President and not beyond it.

The third Iranian demand allegedly rejected is related to SWIFT, the international banking transfers system. Iran has lost the privilege of using the mechanism since 2018 when the US withdrew from the JCPOA and imposed sanctions. This makes trade and investments extremely difficult.

The US in its response has said that Washington cannot guarantee Iran’s return to the SWIFT, because it has not accepted financial reforms demanded by the Financial Actions Task Force (FATF), an international watchdog based in Paris that requires financial transparency from countries, anti-corruption measures and laws to prohibit financing of terrorism.

Iran has dragged its feet since 2017 to approve the measures demanded by the FATF and is blacklisted along with North Korea.

The revelations that the US has rejected three Iranian demands has cast a shadow over hopes in Tehran of a quick agreement. The Iranian currency that had initially risen 15 percent against the US dollar has again retreated.

Israel’s Kan news, citing unnamed officials, reported on Saturday that the two sides are discussing the meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. World leaders often hold bilateral meetings while attending the annual event.

As negotiations to restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) are advancing, Israel is increasingly criticizing the impending deal for being too weak to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz visiting Washington met with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to discuss the issue.

Speaking to leading Washington think tanks, Gantz said on Saturday that “improvements are necessary” in the new nuclear agreement.

“Iran has gained knowledge, infrastructure and capabilities” in recent years, Gantz said, “much of which is irreversible.”

According to Times of Israel he added, “this will enable Iran to further expand its nuclear program during the period of an agreement that would have fewer restrictions.” And Iran “would be able to acquire a nuclear weapon when said agreement would end in 2031.”

He emphasized that “Improvements are necessary in the nuclear agreement in discussion – with an emphasis on the ‘sunset’ clause.”

Iran is currently reviewing a US response to its position earlier sent to the European Union, which acts as a mediator between the two sides.

One remaining point of difference centers on Iran’s demand that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) shelve its enquiries into Tehran’s pre-2003 nuclear work. The US – backed by the ‘E3’ of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – argued this is a separate issue from efforts to revive the 2015 deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

The IAEA board of governors, made up of 35 member states, convenes September 12-16, three months after it passed a motion moved by the US and the E3 censuring Iran over its failure to satisfy the agency over unexplained uranium traces found by inspectors in sites used before 2003.

Bloomberg reported “officials familiar with the talks” Friday saying they thought it might take “several weeks” to resolve US-Iran differences centered on both the IAEA probe and Iran’s expectation that it be cushioned against adverse effects of the US once again leaving the JCPOA.

Oil prices

Bloomberg noted keen interest in the talks among both oil traders and politicians around the world wary over rising energy prices given the Ukraine crisis. Iran has at least 150 million barrels of oil in storage that could return to the market if the US eased sanctions under a revived JCPOA.

Iran said Wednesday it was reviewing a US response to Iran’s own response of August 15 to European Union proposals made August 8 aimed at concluding 16-month talks between Iran and world powers over restoring the JCPOA, from which President Donald Trump withdrew the US in 2018. US ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions prodded Iran in turn after 2019 to expand its nuclear program and restrict the access of IAEA inspections to those required under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty.

Rafael Mariano Grossi, the IAEA director-general, said this week in an interview with PBS that restoring the JCPOA would allow inspectors greater access – implying that the uranium traces might be more easily investigated with the 2015 agreement back in place.

But opponents of the JCPOA in the US may expect further action against Iran at the IAEA board meeting beginning September 12. Subsequent Republican gains in the November 8 mid-term elections would strengthen voice in Congress critical of the approach taken by President Joe Biden.

‘Credible military threat’

A White House statement Friday after a meeting between National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Benny Gantz, Israeli defense minister, said the two had discussed the “US commitment to ensure Iran never develops a nuclear weapon, and the need to counter threats from Iran and Iran-based proxies.”

Successive Israeli governments have opposed the JCPOA and efforts to restore it, while Israel is widely thought responsible for killing Iranian scientists and for attacks on Iranian nuclear sites – actions that led Iran to expand its nuclear program and restrict IAEA access.

Israeli journalist Barak Ravid tweeted Friday he had been informed by an Israeli official that Gantz had “reiterated the need for a credible US military threat against Iran.”

Gantz had welcomed, Ravid wrote, US airstrikes against targets in Deir al-Zour province Syria, which Washington said were a response to attacks on US forces in Syria ostensibly to combat the Islamic State group (Isis).But while Defense Secretary Colin Kahl framed the strikes as a response to “Iranian and Iranian-backed aggression,” the Biden administration rejects the Israeli leadership’s view that Iran’s support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad or Hezbollah in Lebanon rules out restoring the JCPOA.