Belgium Ratifies Contentious Prisoner Swap Treaty With Iran

Major Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, a Revolutionary Guard officer, was speaking in Mashhad in northwestern Iran, two days after the visit of Russia’s Vladimir Putin to Tehran, during which Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei endorsed his invasion of Ukraine, calling it a “praiseworthy initiative.”

The United States has warned that Russia is trying to procure military drones from Iran to use in Ukraine, although Tehran has offered a half-hearted denial.

Bagheri said that the United States’ expenditure of “ten trillion dollars in West Asia” was fruitless and US power is on decline, as the world has entered “a new transition period.”

The top military commander’s remarks were yet another sign of a clear tilt in Tehran toward a policy of relying on Russia and China to defy the West. After almost 16 months of talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, negotiations remain stalled.

Tehran, which is able to export more than 700,000 barrels of crude per day, despite US sanctions, is apparently counting on high oil prices and a rapidly expanding nuclear program to create a new reality.

President Joe Biden in his recent trip to the region pledged with Israel and Saudi Arabia never to allow Iran to produce nuclear weapons, but he still insists on following the diplomatic path to reach an agreement to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA and to put Iran’s nuclear program “in a box.”

However, his administration relaxed enforcement of US ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions imposed by former President Donald Trump as it embarked on the diplomatic path in early 2021. China taking advantage of the reprieve found illicit ways to increase oil imports from Iran.

Bagheri claimed that Iran used “the superiority of opportunities to threats” to gradually destroy the “foundations of [US] maximum pressure.”

He also highlighted that Iran defeated “enemy plots” near its borders to create threats against the Islamic Republic. Tehran uses the term ‘enemy’ primarily to point at the United States, and often also at its allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

However, numerous attacks on Iranian nuclear and military installations and assassinations of key nuclear and military figures since mid-2020 point to a high degree of infiltration by what many believe is the Israeli Mossad. Tehran made significant personnel changes in its intelligence and counter-intelligence networks in June, after a high-profile assassination and other unexplained deaths among IRGC figures in May and June.

Nevertheless, Bagheri emphasized that the top priority of the armed forces to is establish deterrence. He told commanders of IRGC ground forces gathered in Mashhad that their job was important “as the fate of battles is decided on the ground, especially for a country that has no aggressive intentions and simply wants to defend security on its territory, although even in a foreign conflict, it is still ground forces that decide the final outcome.” He told the officers that “Your job is to prepare for an unequal battle with a superior foreign enemy, to fight terrorists and anti-revolutionaries…”

IRGC forces have been extensively used to suppress popular protests since 2017, with the most brutal crackdown in November 2019 when at least 1,500 protesters were killed.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Mike Milley speaking extensively on the war in Ukraine responded to questions about US accusations that Russia is planning to obtain Iranian drones to strengthen its weakening position in battles.

Austin responding to a question said, “on the issue of Iranian support to Russia, we would -- we would advise Iran to not -- to not do that. We think it's a really, really bad idea. And I'll leave that at that.” Gen Milley refused to expand on Austin's remarks "at the microphone."

Last week, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan twice warned that Moscow appears to be looking at buying Iranian drones and Russian officers even visited a drone base in Iran’s Kashan to review their options. His statements hinted at possible training of Russian crews to operate the drones and said the this would cause more civilian deaths in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the head of US Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns said Wednesday, “It’s true that the Russians are reaching out to the Iranians to try to acquire armed drones,” Bloomberg reported.

“They need each other, they don’t really trust each other, in the sense that they’re energy rivals and historical competitors,” Burns said. “It’s important to remind ourselves that it’s a reflection, in some ways, of the deficiencies of Russia’s defense industry today, and the difficulties they’re having after significant losses so far in the war against Ukraine,” Burns added.

Iranian officials have responded by reiterating Tehran’s position of neutrality in the war and that Iran would not supply military hardware to any of the sides, but there was never a clear denial of the American accusation. On the contrary, Iranians insisted that Tehran and Moscow have long-running military cooperation.

Iran’s ambiguous position became clearer this week, as Russia’s Vladimir Putin visited Tehran on Tuesday and met Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who described Russia’s attack on Ukraine as Mr. Putin’s praiseworthy “initiative” to counter what he described as “an inevitable” NATO military intervention.

On Wednesday, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani responding to a question on the drone issue, said “Iranian and Russian technological cooperation predates developments in Ukraine. Any linkage between our cooperation with Russia with developments in Ukraine is intentionally biased.”

Instead of denying the US accusation, Kanaani indirectly hinted at military cooperation with Russia even in drone technology.

It is entirely possible that Iran would help Russia to produce some of its drones with slightly different material and then claim the UAVs are not Iranian. To a large extent, Tehran has done just that with Houthis in Yemen, but it will not be difficult to determine that the weapons are copies of Iranian UAVs. However, given the fact that Russia is pressed for time by the highly accurate Western weapons provided to Ukraine, it will outright acquire and use Iranian drones.

Tehran that has delayed an agreement with the United States to restore the 2015 nuclear agreement ditched by President Donald Trump, seems increasingly confident that with high oil prices it can continue to expand its nuclear program and develop a new anti-West front with Moscow.

The Islamic regime's enmity with MeK is so fierce that even those remotely connected to the group have been handed jail sentences by revolutionary courts, but Mirsalim’s son was pardoned and walked away.

Critics launched an attack on Mostafa Mirsalim for concealing his son’s arrest for three years from those who voted for him. They also criticized the Guardian Council for endorsing his credentials as candidate for the presidency in 2021 and parliamentary elections in 2020.

Mirsalim explained on Twitter earlier this week that "The MeK took advantage of" his son, a simpleton unable of making ends meet in his personal life." However, he said that "the group's only success was recruiting my son," meaning that the group did not get access to any key intelligence through his son. Mirsalim appears to have deleted the tweets later, but it was too late as the press had already cited them.

Critics on social media strongly challenged him. One critic wrote on Twitter that with Mirsalim's position at the Majles and the Expediency Council, “he has released tons of intelligence at home even through sneezing!”

Mirsalim further explained that his son was arrested in June 2019 and was sentenced to five years in jail in February 2020 on charges of acting against national security but was out on bail. He was finally jailed in February 2021. During this period, Mirsalim did not tell anyone about this. However, the lawmaker's son was soon pardoned and released as Mirsalim told the press.

Conservative activist Mansoor Haghighatpoor told Etemad News: "Mirsalim's son could have given a world of intelligence to the MeK as he had access to tons of information. The critic also revealed that the children of some of the Guardian Council members were killed because of their links to the outlawed group. "Although the council disqualified former Majles Speaker Ali Larijani only for her daughter being a resident of a foreign country, it endorsed Mirsalim's qualification for both the presidential and parliamentary elections," Haghighatpoor said.

Aftab News website, quoted reformist activist Abbas Abdi as saying that the arrest and release of Mirsalim's son in 2019 was one of the most destructive forms of discrimination in Iran's political structure. He criticized Iran's conservatives for their silence about the development as well as their attempt to conceal it while even much more benign reasons could have led to severe punishment if the accused was linked to reformists.

Mirsalim, a seasoned member of the hardline conservative Islamic Coalition Party, was previously interior and culture minister in the early years of the Islamic Republic. He who represents Tehran, is known for making potentially libellous comments about the alleged corruption of Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The bitter relations and financial rivalries and conflict of interests over Mirsalim's role in preventing the import of new cars to Iran could have played a part in the revelations about his son's case.

Mirsalim's behavior was most certainly being scrutinized by his political rivals. Last week, he had to explain why he was wearing US-made shoes, revealed in a photograph from the parliament floor, that found its way to news websites and social media.

Erdogan told reporters on the return flight that the leaders of Russia and Iran shared Turkey’s concern with confronting ‘terrorism.’ While Erdogan, President Vladimir Putin and Iranian leader Ali Khamenei all agreed that the United States should withdraw its troops from north-easy Syria, where they control some oil-fields, both Putin and Khamenei cautioned the Turkish president against an attack on Kurdish forces.

According to a text released by the presidential office, Erdogan continues to insist that an offensive against the main Kurdish group, the PYD (Democratic Union Party), remains possible as long as Turkey’s ‘security’ concerns are not met.

Russia, Turkey, and Iran have worked to coordinate their various interests in Syria through the Astana process, which began in 2019. But with 3.5 million refugees in Syria and a swathe along the border under Kurdish control renamed ‘Rojava,’ Erdogan reiterated Tuesday the option of establishing a ‘safe zone’ inside Syria.

The PYD is linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has been active mainly in Turkey since the 1980s, and to Pejak, which operates in Iranian Kurdistan. The three share the ultimate aim of one Kurdistan uniting areas from Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran.

But if Ankara and Tehran share antipathy to Kurdish autonomy, they have taken opposite sides in the Syrian war, with Iran alongside Russia backing President Bashar al-Assad and Turkey aiding mainly Sunni rebels.

The PYD has long played an on-off game with Assad, given a general Kurdish antipathy towards mainly Arab Sunni militants. Erdogan Tuesday accused the PYD of “draining” Syria petrol and selling it to Assad’s government. The PYD has also been aided by the US, ostensibly because of its role fighting the Islamic State group (Isis).

Words ‘not enough’

The trilateral summit in Tehran, which dealt with issues including food supplies arising from the Ukraine crisis, showed Erdogan’s dissatisfaction with what is becoming a settled situation in northern Syria.

“You say you understand Turkey’s concerns and we thank you for this,” Erdogan reportedly told Putin and Raisi. “But words alone are not enough.”

But the summit was also an opportunity for Erdogan to meet Putin who for the first time left the former Soviet space. The Turkish president also made Putin wait nearly one minute in an awkward situation before he appeared and greeted him for a bilateral meeting. Many saw this as a payback for all the occasions when the Kremlin boss has made Erdogan and others wait for him.

Iran’s formal position is that all concerned should respect international borders. Khamenei warned Tuesday that ‘terrorism’ in Syria was not limited to one group and that any Turkish intervention would “benefit terrorists,” destabilize the region, and “impede Syria’s political actions.” Iran may be concerned that a Turkish military operation, and the possible return to Syria of radicalized Sunni refugees, could willingly or otherwise strengthen Islamists opposed to Assad.

“We emphasised that the Syrian government must have control over all areas in the country,” Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi told a press conference following the summit.

“I will not give an interview because I believe we don't have morality police for hijab… there are only exceptional cases … Speaking of these is psychological and political warfare,” Abdollah Ganji, the former editor of the IRGC-linked Javan newspaper who is now chief editor of Tehran municipality’s Hamshahri newspaper, told reformist Etemad daily.

Meanwhile an incident on July 19 shocked many Iranians. A patrol van arrested a young woman who was in the street with her mother. She launched herself again the vehicle as it tried to move, throwing her body on the hood. The van kept moving forward trying to scare her to let go.

Other hardliners proudly defend strict hijab enforcement, while even some ‘reformists’ loyal to the Islamic Republic coyly defend it.

The Islamic Republic has launched an extensive campaign this summer to force women to fully comply with hijab rules. Hardliners often say defiance of hijab is a plot by “enemies” of the Islamic Republic and “cultural onslaught”.

Such campaigns aren't unprecedented, but activists say this year there is more public debate and more defiance by women due to a campaign against compulsory hijab launched last week quickly picking up through the social media and more confrontations between anti-hijab women and hijab enforcers.

On July 12, following a call by women’s rights activists for civil disobedience social media exploded with dozens of videos and photos of women unveiling in public with the hashtag of ‘No2Hijab’. Women’s rights activists say forcing women to follow a certain dress code is a violation of their human rights.

Government enforcers and even every member of the public has the right to warn women whose appearance does not conform with the government’s prescribed rules of hijab.This kind of warning, called “Enjoining the Good and Forbidding the Evil", however, increasinglu leads to confrontations in public.

Sepideh Rashno, a 28-year-old artist, writer and editor who got into a quarrel on a bus with another woman who ordered her to cover her hair, was arrested on Saturday for her defiance. The quarrel became so frantic that other passengers intervened and kicked the hijab enforcer out of the bus. Members of the public have similarly come to the aid of women berated or threatened by hijab enforcers and helped rescue them in similar recent incidents.

In the past few weeks authorities have also shut down some businessessuch as cafes and restaurants and detained their female patrons for ‘improper hijab’ and arrested nature touristsfor flouting their hijab, dancing, and drinking in the depths of northern forests.

Some politicians and activists say the government is using more strict enforcement of hijab rules this summer to distract people’s attention from more fundamental issues such as the current economic crisis that has affected the majority of lower income and even middle-class Iranians.

“I believe they want to sweep the fundamental issues under the carpet so that we would not take heed of people’s fundamental problems and concerns, particularly those of the lower-income classes,” former reformist lawmaker Parvaneh Salahshouri said in an interview with reformist Etemad newspaper published July 18.

Salahshouri also opined that the ruling hardliners are more heavy-handed in dealing with hijab issues because they have to satisfy their supporters who strongly advocate enforcement of hijab rules.