Pundits In Iran Say EU Effort Will Fail, No Breakthrough In Talks With US

The EU coordinator of the talks Enrique Mora's visit does not mean that he is "coming with a new message after a pause [in Vienna talks]," spokesman of the ministry Saeed Khatibzadeh told reporters Monday at his weekly press briefing. "At the moment the agenda of Mora, the EU, and the JCPOA coordinator is only conveying messages and nothing new is expected to happen.'

The Vienna negotiations stopped in mid-March as Iran demanded the removal of its Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) for the US list of terrorist organization. The Biden administration so far has not accepted Tehran’s demand as opposition to such a concession has grown in Washington.

Khatibzadeh said the plan for the visit was proposed by the EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell his phone talk with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on April 22 and that this required in person meetings and talks in Tehran. So far, he added, the only meeting arranged for Mora in Tehran will be with Iran's top negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani.

Calling the recent motions by the US Senate "anti-diplomacy," Khatibzadeh said Iran and the 4+1 have shown commitment to the diplomatic path and reaching "a good, reliable and lasting agreement" so it is the US that has to make a decision.

On April 4, a clear majority of Senators voted for two motions expressing their opposition to the Biden administrations negotiating approach to Iran.

The steps Iran requires the US to take to ensure its verifiable return to the 2015 nuclear deal, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) cannot be reduced to the delisting of Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), the spokesman said. "The United States must guarantee to observe all the rights that it has deprived the Iranian nation from and abide by the UN Resolution 2231."

The Biden administration has said that it will only negotiate over delisting the IRGC if Tehran agrees to negotiate over other matters such as its regional activities which are similarly outside the purview of the JCPOA.

Khatibzadeh also confirmed the visit of Qatar's Emir, Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, to Tehran this week and said discussion of "bilateral, regional and international matters" was on the agenda of the visit. "Iran and the 4+1 are on one side of the stream and the US is on the side. There is no need for mediation between Iran and the 4+1," he said.

A source quoted by Reuters Sunday said Qatar's emir who will visit Tehran this week and then head on to Europe and the UK, will focus on mediating between Iran and European sides in the Vienna talks to bring the parties to "a new middle ground" among other things such as energy security during his trips.

Syrian President Bashar Assad visited Tehran on Sunday and received praise by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and promises of stronger cooperation. Although the real purpose of the unannounced visit was not clear, it could strengthen perceptions of Iran's meddling in the region, if its military role expands in Syria in the wake of Russia's entanglement in Ukraine.

The IRGC is deeply involved in Syria's decade-old civil war, seen as a serious threat by Israel, as Iranian weapons and personnel entrench themselves near Israel's borders.

Speaking to a group of his former officials on Sunday, Rouhani stressed the need for lifting economic sanctions, which is tied to restoring the 2015 nuclear agreement, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

He added that the administration of Ebrahim Raisi should not miss the opportunity to reach an agreement with world powers.

Talks began more than a year ago -- when Rouhani was still in office -- in Vienna to revive the JCPOA, and the negotiating sides had reportedly reached some initial agreements until Iran’s presidential elections in June when Tehran stopped the talks for five months. According to reports, about “70 to 80 percent" of the draft agreement was prepared during Rouhani’s term.

The negotiations continued under Raisi, but they seem to have reached a dead-end as they have stalled since mid-March, primarily because of Tehran’s demand to remove its Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) from a US list of terrorist organizations.

The Biden administration so far has not accepted Iran’s demand for delisting the IRGC, as more domestic pressure has emerged in Washington against such a move. Almost all Republicans and many Democrats oppose concessions to Iran.

Enrique Mora, the European Union coordinator for the talks, is scheduled to visit Tehran on Tuesday to exchange views of Tehran and Washington, in what seems to be among the last measures to resolve the remaining issues.

“Considering the role of the European Union in exchange of views between Tehran and Washington, Enrique Mora’s trip to Tehran could be a new step for constructive exploration of a few remaining limited but important issues,” the website said.

Multilateral talks that began more than a year ago in Vienna to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement known as JCPOA stalled in mid-March, primarily because of Tehran’s demand to remove its Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) from a US list of terrorist organizations.

Earlier on Saturday, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell expressed hope that Mora could visit Tehran as a last-ditch effort to salvage the talks.

The Biden administration so far has not accepted Iran’s demand for delisting the IRGC, as more domestic pressure has emerged in Washington against such a move. Almost all Republicans and many Democrats oppose any concessions to Iran.

“Although the continuation of hostile approaches by America against our country contradict the spirit of negotiations for an agreement, but the process of talks have continued,” Nour News said.

Iran is facing what appears to be unsurmountable economic problems partly triggered by US economic sanctions. Tehran this week raised flour prices, which led to unprecedented rise in the cost of bread for millions of impoverished citizens.

Josep Borrell told the Financial Times that the impasse threatens to jettison more than a year of European diplomatic efforts to seal the deal.

He said he wanted EU negotiator Enrique Mora to visit Tehran to discuss the remaining issues but Iran “was very much reluctant”, describing the diplomatic push as “the last bullet”.

“We cannot continue like this forever, because in the meantime Iran continues developing their nuclear program”, Borrell warned,

He reiterated the possibility of a scenario whereby the designation on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is lifted, but other parts of the organization, which has several arms across the security apparatus and a sprawling business empire, will remain under the sanctions.

Negotiations, which started in Vienna in April 2021 to revive the Obama-era nuclear deal, JCPOA, have been on a protracted pause since March 11, as the Islamic Republic demanded removing its Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) from the US list of terrorist organizations.

Iran says the talks have not stopped but continue at a different pace through the exchange of written messages with the Americans through the European Union representative.

Politico cited multiple people familiar with classified Congress briefings on the subject that the two Iran-related motions passed in the Senate on Wednesday were a warning shot to the US team negotiating restoring the 2015 agreement with Tehran.

Although the motions were non-binding, the vote was seen as a test run of the bipartisan rebuke that would likely happen if Washington and Tehran clinch an agreement that does not address Iran’s non-nuclear activities and removes Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) from the list of foreign terrorist organizations.

The measures -- that for the first time forced lawmakers to go on record about the key sticking points in the year-long negotiations in Vienna -- were also hailed as modest victory for Republicans who have been urging the Biden administration to walk away from the talks, now in limbo for weeks now.

The first vote on Wednesday was proposed by Senator Ted Cruz that called for maintaining terrorism-related sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank to limit Tehran’s cooperation for China, while the other – led by Senator James Lankford instructed Senate conferees to make sure that a House bill would include language that the Biden administration cannot remove the terror designation of the IRGC.