Quest For More Leverage Drives Iran's Nuclear Stalling Tactic, Analysts Say

Press TV, Iran’s English-language broadcaster, and Armenian news agencies reported that Deputy Transportation Minister Kheirollah Khademi arrived in Armenia Monday to express Tehran’s financial and technical support for a project allowing cargoes from Iran and elsewhere to bypass Azerbaijan-run territory on their way to Russia and Europe.

Khademi is visiting construction sites for Armenia's Tatev project, a 400-kilometer transit road linking the Iranian border crossing at Nordooz to the Armenian capital Yerevan.

Over half a 43km road, from Tatev to Aghvani, bypassing the Goris-Kapan stretch that is in the Armenian region of Syunik but since last year’s war under Azeri control, has been built. But it is barely suitable for large trucks and trailers. Armenia is planning a third bypass road, from Tatev to Ltsen.

In his joint press conference in Tehran Monday, Armenia's Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said he had briefed his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on the new roads. The Iranian foreign minister said that joint plans for direct transit would be "finalized and implemented" very soon.

As things stand, Iranian trucks face a $130 levy imposed by the Azeris, who have been stopping Iranian trucks using the Goris-Kapan road.

Armenian economist Suren Parsyan Monday told the United Kingdom-funded JAMnews that Armenia’s annual trade turnover with Iran was $410 million, made up of $90 million of electricity exported to Iran and $320 million in imports of gas, oil products, fertilizers, and construction materials.

Armenia exports to Arab and Asian countries through Iran. For Iran, Armenia offers access to markets in Georgia, Russia, the Black Sea states, and European countries.

According to Parsyan, the Tatev-Aghvani road cannot support the same volume of cargo even if widened. Parsyan also told JAMnews that the budget constraints meant construction would be delayed until at the end of 2022 and might take three years.

Regional tensions, which have simmered since last year’s Armenia-Azerbaijan six-week conflict, escalated August 25 when Azerbaijani troops denied Armenian vehicles access to part of the 21km Goris-Kapan road. The arrest of two Iranian truck drivers for "illegal entry into Azerbaijani territory" caused alarm in Tehran.

Owji’s claim came as Iran is bracing for a serious natural gas shortage this winter that will certainly lead to major energy shortage and also power cuts impacting both residential and industrial customers, similar to electricity shortages last winter.

Top officials in both the capital Tehran and the central city of Esfahan have warned of gas shortages in the fall and winter.

In absence of foreign investments of money and technology in Iran oil and natural gas sectors, production in South Pars gas fields in the Persian Gulf have not kept up with rising domestic demand and exports to Iraq.

Consumer demand for electricity has particularly increased because Iran offers the cheapest rates in the world. Consumers have little incentive to save energy, with electricity demand rising to 60,000 megawatts in summer and winter peak seasons.

Just in Esfahan, the general manager of the local gas company warned that daily shortages this winter will reach 25-million cubic meters of gas. Owji had warned in September that the country would face a 200-million cubic meter shortage this winter.

Reports in local media have said that fuel reserves at power stations is 30 percent less than required for winter months. Part of the problem is lack of tanker trucks to feed the power plants as many have become too old to operate. This is an indication of lack of investments as the country has been under UN or US sanctions during most of the past decade.

Thenatural gas shortage also has an environmental consequence, when Iranian power plants resort to burning mazut, a dirty oil biproduct. Last winter, smug and pollution covered all major Iranian cities as mazut was used to compensate for the gas shortage.

Iran is the Middle East’s largest electricity generator and the 14th largest globally. Ashley-Edison, A UK electricity leader estimates 80 percent of Iran’s output is from from fossil-fuel plants, 16 percent from hydroelectric plants, and 1.3 percent from Iran’s sole nuclear power plant at Bushehr. Tehran is in talks with Russia and South Korea over building eight atomic reactors.

On a main Tehran street, where street booksellers traditionally display their selections on sidewalks, police on October 2 forced many to take their books and leave. Citizens began reacting on social media, condemning the police action.

Government-controlled media has begun defending the decision to ban street book stands, arguing that these vendors make more money than official bookstores.

But many say the real reason is the banned books offered by street vendors that regular bookstores are not allowed to sell. One example mentioned even by authorities is books about Iran’s monarchy, which the Islamic Republic is extremely sensitive about.

For a book to be published in Iran there is a lengthy authorization process, with government censors carefully reviewing the content and making notes of what pages or paragraphs break the regime’s ideological or political red lines.

The government also argues that street booksellers offer illegal copies of published books, which in some cases might be true, but they generally sell used books for lower prices.

Iranian wrestlers featured in all of the night's gold medal matches, but it wasn't until the heavyweights took to the matt, that Iran could celebrate gold medal in a confident match.

In the first final, the 57kg class, American Thomas Gilman outclassed Iran's Alireza Nosratolah Sarlak, while Russia's Zagir Shakiev won a battle of attrition with Amirmohammad Babak Yazdanicherati in the 65kg event.

Mohammad Ashghar Nokhodilarimi also had to settle for silver in the 79kg division after losing 5-1 to America's Jordan Burroughs.

In the final match of the night Kamran Ghorban Ghasempour faced off against Magomed Guseynovitch Kurbanov of Russia.

He started well and never looked as if he was going to lack strength, going on to win 8-4.

Report by AP

A visit to Washington by Israel's national security adviser, Eyal Hulata, will allow the two allies to share intelligence and develop a "baseline assessment" of how far Tehran's nuclear program has advanced, the official said.

Under a 2015 deal, Iran curbed its uranium enrichment program, a possible pathway to nuclear arms, in return for the lifting of economic sanctions. Then-President Donald Trump quit the deal in 2018 and the Israeli government opposes US efforts to revive it.

In broad terms, US experts believe the time it would take Iran to achieve nuclear "breakout" – enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb – has "gone from about 12 months down to a period of about a few months" since Trump pulled out of the pact, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"Obviously that is quite alarming," the official told reporters ahead of Hulata's talks with US national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

Iran has consistently denied it is developing nuclear weapons.

Echoing President Joe Biden's comments in a White House meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in August, the official said: "We of course remain committed to a diplomatic path."

"But obviously if that doesn't work there are other avenues to pursue, and we are fully committed to ensuring that Iran never develops a nuclear weapon."

Asked what actions were under consideration and whether that included military options, the official said "we'll be prepared to take measures that are necessary" but did not elaborate.

The official said that Iran was "sending indications to a number of parties that they are preparing to come back to Vienna," where the United States and Iran held indirect talks earlier this year that stalled.

But signaling that obstacles remain, Iran's foreign minister said on Saturday that the United States must first release $10 billion of Tehran's frozen funds as a sign of good will, something the Biden administration has shown no willingness to do.

Bennett, a far-right politician who ended Benjamin Netanyahu's 12-year run as prime minister in June, has made clear he wants Biden to harden his stance against Iran, Israel's regional arch-foe.

There is also disagreement over Biden's opposition to further expansion of Jewish settlements on occupied land that the Palestinians want for a future state.

Asked whether the issue would be part of Tuesday's talks, the U.S. official said Israel was well aware of the administration's view of the need to refrain from actions that could be seen as "provocative" and undermine efforts to achieve a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians.